Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page
Middleweight Division • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Karate Stylist Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Jared Cannonier
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Gregory Rodrigues | W | TKO (Punches) (R4, 0:21) |
| 2024-08-24 | Caio Borralho | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-17 | Sean Strickland | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-02 | Israel Adesanya | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-12 | Derek Brunson | W | TKO (Elbows) (R2, 4:29) |
Last 5 Fights - Michael Page
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Shara Magomedov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Ian Machado Garry | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Kevin Holland | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-10 | Goiti Yamauchi | W | TKO (Leg Kick) (R1, 0:26) |
| 2023-02-13 | Logan Storley | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52.1 vs 56.9) and Grappling Composite (29.3 vs 22.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Jared Cannonier Key Advantages
4.60 SLpM vs 2.53 - massive volume advantage with knockout power up to Round 3
Historically disrupts wide karate stances - Page's bladed stance vulnerable to calf kicks
19 UFC fights vs 3 - proven against elite middleweight competition
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Chasing too aggressively through open space could walk into Page's intercepting strikes
Page's reach advantage and karate stance create difficult angles for entries
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use jab to close distance, then unleash power shots and leg kicks in combination
Target lead calf to disrupt Page's mobility and karate stance effectiveness
🥋 Michael Page Key Advantages
Superior accuracy with long-range karate blitzes - lands clean when opponents bite on feints
79" reach + lateral movement - large cage gives 20% more space vs Apex for resets
Proven knockout power with counter right hands and stepping knees on opponent entries
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Repeated calf kicks could disrupt mobility and karate stance effectiveness
Low output risks losing minutes if knockout opportunities don't present themselves
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain wide karate stance, use 45-degree exits after striking exchanges
Pot-shot counters with long stalls between engagements to control pace
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Based on 100 hypothetical fight simulation and statistical analysis
📊Statistical Analysis Summary
💥Power-Volume Combination
Cannonier's statistical advantage is anchored in his exceptional power-volume combination, throwing 82% more significant strikes per minute (4.60 vs 2.53) while maintaining fight-ending power throughout all rounds. This rare pairing historically overwhelms low-output precision strikers like Page, who must rely on perfect timing and accuracy to overcome the sustained pressure.
🦵Stylistic Vulnerability
Page's bladed karate stance, while effective for generating power and maintaining distance, presents a significant vulnerability to Cannonier's leg kick game. Historical analysis shows that wide stances are particularly susceptible to calf kicks, which can rapidly erode mobility and stance effectiveness, forcing fighters into uncomfortable boxing ranges.
🏆Experience Factor
Cannonier's extensive UFC experience (19 fights vs 3) provides crucial context for this matchup. His proven performance against elite middleweight competition, including former champions and title challengers, demonstrates his ability to execute game plans under pressure. Page's limited UFC sample size, while showing promise, lacks the volume of elite competition testing that validates championship-level readiness.
🎯Page's Path to Victory
Page's 30% win probability reflects his legitimate advantages in accuracy (62% vs 50%) and distance management capabilities. His path to victory requires maintaining optimal range, utilizing his superior reach advantage, and capitalizing on counter-striking opportunities when Cannonier pressures forward. The key lies in avoiding extended exchanges and preventing leg kick accumulation that could compromise his movement patterns.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Fight Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 70% | Market: 38.5%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: 22.2%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Volatility coverage sprinkle
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Cannonier Moneyline (+160) — Model 70% vs 38.5% market implied
- • High Value: Cannonier by Decision (+350) — Model 32% vs 22.2% market implied
- • Hedge Idea: Page Round 1 KO/TKO (+750) — covers early volatility
- • Overvalued: Page Moneyline (-185) — Model 30% vs 64.9% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation results
🥊Outcome Distribution - Cannonier
Often R2 leg-kick → boxing combination
Out-volumes, controls clinch
Club-and-sub or front-choke vs shot
🥋Outcome Distribution - Page
Counter straight R or stepping knee on entries
Stick-and-move, low-tempo point fight
Guillotine on forced wrestle
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Early Window - Page
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum accuracy and distance control
- • Counter opportunities: Cannonier's aggressive entries
- • Stance integrity: Before leg kick accumulation
- • Energy advantage: Fresh legs and reactions
🎯Building Pressure - Cannonier
- • Round 2+: Volume advantage becomes decisive
- • Leg kick accumulation: Disrupts Page's mobility
- • Pressure tactics: Forces uncomfortable ranges
- • Finish threat: Constant knockout potential
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Cannonier's power-volume combination
- • Superior UFC experience (19 vs 3 fights)
- • Proven finishing ability (72.2% finish rate)
- • Leg kick effectiveness vs karate stance
- • Recent TKO victory over Rodrigues
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Page's superior striking accuracy (62% vs 50%)
- • Physical reach advantage (+1.5")
- • Age factor (41 vs 37 years old)
- • Page's one-strike knockout power
- • Middleweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight clash represents a classic power vs precision matchup, with Cannonier's overwhelming volume and finishing ability contrasting against Page's superior accuracy and distance management. While Page's karate background and counter-striking capabilities present legitimate threats, Cannonier's 82% volume advantage and proven ability to finish fights create a clear statistical edge.
The betting market accurately reflects the probability distribution, with both model and market projecting Cannonier as a -233 favorite. This alignment suggests the market has properly priced in Cannonier's advantages while accounting for Page's counter-striking potential and physical advantages.
Prediction: Cannonier's pressure and volume should eventually overwhelm Page's defensive striking game, with the fight likely ending in Round 2 or 3 through either a TKO from accumulated damage or a decision victory based on sustained pressure. Page's path to victory requires perfect execution of his counter-striking game plan and avoiding extended exchanges where Cannonier's volume becomes decisive.