Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura
Flyweight Bout • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Tim Elliott
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Sumudaerji | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R1, 4:02) |
| 2023-10-21 | Muhammad Mokaev | L | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R3, 3:03) |
| 2023-06-03 | Victor Altamirano | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-05 | Tagir Ulanbekov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-11-09 | Matheus Nicolau | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Kai Asakura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:05) |
| 2023-12-31 | Juan Archuleta | W | TKO - Knee to Body & Punches (R2, 3:20) |
| 2023-05-06 | Yuki Motoya | W | KO - Knee to Body (R3, 2:25) |
| 2021-12-31 | Hiromasa Ougikubo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-12-31 | Kenta Takizawa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (54 vs 40) and Grappling Composite (50 vs 14). Elliott's grappling advantage is massive, while Asakura maintains slight striking edge.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Elliott's proven 3-round durability vs Asakura's fast-finish tendency.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Elliott's wrestling-heavy style and proven durability give him significant advantage over Asakura's explosive but one-dimensional approach.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Elliott's volume vs Asakura's precision creates an interesting dynamic with slight edge to Elliott.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Elliott's massive advantage here with 3.73 TD/15 and 1.8 Sub/15 vs Asakura's negligible grappling metrics.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Tim Elliott Key Advantages
Massive takedown advantage (3.73 vs 0.0 TD/15) with elite submission threat (1.8 Sub/15 vs 0.5)
Proven 3-round durability with 12:15 average fight time - can maintain pace throughout
Superior striking volume (3.39 vs 2.4 SLpM) to build scoring accumulation
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Telegraphed takedown entries could expose him to Asakura's heavy counters and early power
3" reach disadvantage could make closing distance difficult against Asakura's striking accuracy
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use striking to set up takedown entries, chain attempts to overcome good TDD and control fight
Maintain high striking volume to limit Asakura's timing and create submission opportunities
🚀 Kai Asakura Key Advantages
Superior striking accuracy (59% vs 45%) with knockout power to end fights early
Strong 85% takedown defense to neutralize Elliott's primary weapon
Height and reach advantage to control distance and land clean strikes
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges where Elliott's submission skills and experience dominate
Cardio questions against Elliott's proven 3-round pace and late-round submission threat
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep Elliott at distance, punish takedown attempts with counters
Target early finish before Elliott can establish his wrestling game and control the pace
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Based on 100 hypothetical fight simulation and comprehensive data analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🤼Grappling Dominance
This flyweight clash represents the classic wrestler vs striker dynamic in its purest form. Elliott's massive grappling advantages - 3.73 takedowns per 15 minutes vs 0.0, and 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.5 - create clear pathways to victory through control and submission. His 50% finish rate and proven ability to find submissions from various positions make him dangerous throughout the entire fight.
🎯Striking Dynamics
While Elliott holds the striking volume advantage (3.39 vs 2.4 SLpM), Asakura's superior accuracy (59% vs 45%) and knockout power (62% of wins by KO/TKO) create genuine early finish threats. However, Elliott's proven 12:15 average fight duration and 3-round durability suggest he can weather early storms and impose his game plan over time.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome hinges on Elliott's ability to close the 3" reach disadvantage and establish his wrestling game against Asakura's 85% takedown defense. Elliott's 32% takedown accuracy suggests he'll need multiple attempts, but his cardio advantage (65 vs 41 score) indicates he can maintain this pressure throughout three rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
While Asakura possesses legitimate early finish threats and physical advantages, Elliott's systematic approach and proven ability to find ways to win through volume and grappling give him the edge. The 65-35 split reflects Elliott's superior technical skillset and cardio, acknowledging Asakura's early danger while favoring the veteran's experience and multi-faceted attack.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: 28.6%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 34% | Market: 20.0%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Volatility coverage sprinkle
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Elliott Moneyline (+250) — Model 65% vs 28.6% market implied
- • High Value: Elliott by Decision (+400) — Model 34% vs 20% market implied
- • Good Value: Elliott by Submission (+750) — Model 21% vs 11.8% market implied
- • Overvalued: Asakura Moneyline (-300) — Model 35% vs 75% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Elliott
Cardio & volume advantage
Grappling dominance
Volume accumulation
💥Outcome Distribution - Asakura
Primary finish threat
Cardio concerns limit decision path
Minimal grappling threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Asakura's Window (R1)
- • First 5 minutes: Critical window for early finish
- • Power strikes: Counter right hands and leg kicks
- • Distance control: Utilize 3" reach advantage
- • TDD focus: Avoid extended grappling exchanges
🎯Elliott's Ascendancy (R2-R3)
- • Pressure building: Chain wrestling attempts
- • Cardio advantage: Maintains pace while Asakura fades
- • Volume accumulation: Striking output compounds
- • Submission threat: Constant danger on the ground
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction rating and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Elliott's systematic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive grappling advantage (3.73 vs 0.0 TD/15)
- • Superior cardio and 3-round durability
- • Elite submission threat (1.8 Sub/15)
- • Higher striking volume (3.39 vs 2.4 SLpM)
- • Proven ability to find ways to win
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Asakura's early KO power (62% KO wins)
- • 3" reach disadvantage for Elliott
- • Asakura's superior striking accuracy (59%)
- • Strong takedown defense (85% TDD)
- • Flyweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight bout represents the quintessential veteran vs prospect dynamic in MMA. Elliott's systematic approach - anchored by massive grappling advantages, proven cardio, and multi-faceted attack - provides multiple pathways to victory against Asakura's one-dimensional but dangerous striking game. While Asakura's early KO power creates legitimate high-variance scenarios, Elliott's technical depth and proven ability to find ways to win justify high confidence in his victory at -185. The bet recommendation aligns with both fundamental analysis and simulation modeling, making this a strong conviction play.