Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev
UFC Middleweight Championship • UFC 319
Saturday, August 16, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Dricus Du Plessis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Sean Strickland | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Israel Adesanya | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R4, 3:38) |
| 2024-01-20 | Sean Strickland | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-08 | Robert Whittaker | W | KO/TKO - Power Jab to Punches (R2, 2:23) |
| 2023-03-04 | Derek Brunson | W | TKO - Corner Stoppage (R2, 4:59) |
Last 5 Fights - Khamzat Chimaev
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Robert Whittaker | W | Submission - Face Crank (R1, 3:34) |
| 2023-10-21 | Kamaru Usman | W | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-10 | Kevin Holland | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R1, 2:13) |
| 2021-10-30 | Jingliang Li | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:16) |
| 2020-07-15 | John Phillips | W | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R2, 1:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (50 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (36 vs 64). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Both fighters show equal striking effectiveness with different approaches - Du Plessis volume vs Chimaev precision.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Chimaev shows massive grappling advantage with superior wrestling pressure and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Dricus Du Plessis Key Advantages
Proven 5-round durability with multiple championship performances including R4 finish vs Adesanya
Higher striking volume (6.12 vs 5.36 SLpM) with body/leg target diversity for scoring accumulation
R4 submission vs Adesanya shows ability to capitalize on tired opponents in deep championship rounds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Vulnerable to immediate takedown pressure where Chimaev's 69% higher TD rate could create early dominance
Chimaev's 280% higher submission rate poses constant finish threat from dominant grappling positions
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach advantage and long kicks to prevent early clinch entries, build scoring through volume
Survive early pressure to exploit championship round cardio advantage and late submission opportunities
🚀 Khamzat Chimaev Key Advantages
Explosive takedown pressure (4.31 vs 2.55 TD/15) with perfect 100% TDD and elite submission threat
Overwhelming early pressure with 9 of 14 wins in Round 1 - explosive immediate threat
Superior 59% vs 49% striking accuracy, enhanced by ground-heavy striking from dominant positions
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Forced to strike at range where Du Plessis' volume advantage and superior cardio become decisive
Zero historical R4/R5 wins - unproven in deep championship waters against elite endurance
📋 Likely Gameplan
Sprint start with explosive level changes and chain wrestling to establish early dominance
Prioritize back control and choke/crank finishes - avoid extended ground control for scoring
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Based on 100 hypothetical fight simulation and comprehensive data analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This middleweight championship clash represents the ultimate test of championship endurance vs explosive finishing power. Du Plessis brings proven 5-round durability and championship experience, evidenced by his current 9-fight UFC win streak and ability to finish fights across multiple rounds. His championship experience includes victories over former champions and top contenders, demonstrating his ability to elevate his game when it matters most.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating contrast in fighting philosophies. Du Plessis' striking volume advantage (6.12 vs 5.36 SLpM) and proven championship cardio create clear paths to victory through attrition. However, Chimaev's explosive grappling metrics (4.31 vs 2.55 TD/15) and perfect takedown defense (100% vs 50%) present significant early finish threats that could neutralize Du Plessis' primary weapons.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Chimaev's explosive wrestling meets Du Plessis' improved takedown defense; the mid-fight adjustments where Du Plessis' championship experience and volume striking could establish dominance; and the championship rounds where Du Plessis' proven 5-round durability and late-round submission threat become decisive factors.
🏁Final Prediction
While Chimaev possesses legitimate early finish threats through his wrestling dominance and submission skills, Du Plessis' championship pedigree, proven 5-round durability, and ability to find ways to win in hostile environments give him the edge. The 62-38 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the championship variables at play, with the winner likely emerging through either Du Plessis' championship experience or Chimaev's explosive early pressure.
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight championship clash represents the ultimate test of championship endurance vs explosive finishing power. Du Plessis' proven 5-round durability and late-round submission threat against Chimaev's overwhelming early pressure and perfect takedown defense create a fascinating tactical battle. The 62-38 edge reflects Du Plessis' championship experience and ability to find ways to win in deep waters, while acknowledging Chimaev's legitimate early finish threat that could end the fight at any moment in the opening rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
PRIMARY VALUE
Model: 62% | Market: 35.1%
DERIVATIVE VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: 16.7%
HEDGE COVERAGE
Model: 8% | Market: 18.2%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Du Plessis Moneyline (+185) - Model shows 62% probability vs 35.1% market implied
- • High Value: Du Plessis by Decision (+500) - Model 24% vs 16.7% market implied
- • Good Value: Du Plessis by KO/TKO (+450) - Model 24% vs 18.2% market implied
- • Fair Value: Chimaev by Submission (+185) - Model 19% vs 35.1% market implied
- • Overvalued: Chimaev Moneyline (-220) - Model 38% vs 68.8% market implied
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Du Plessis
Championship attrition advantage
Volume accumulation & late power
Opportunistic late-round finishes
💥Outcome Distribution - Chimaev
Primary finish threat - early dominance
Ground-and-pound or early power
Cardio questions limit decision path
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Rounds)
⚡Chimaev's Window (R1-R2)
- • First 3 minutes: Critical survival test for Du Plessis
- • Explosive entries: Instant level changes and chain wrestling
- • Historical pattern: 64% of wins in Round 1
- • Finish equity: Back exposure to submission chains
🎯Du Plessis Ascendancy (R3-R5)
- • Round 3+: Championship experience advantages emerge
- • Volume accumulation: Body work and leg kicks compound
- • Late submissions: R4 RNC vs Adesanya precedent
- • Cardio edge: Proven 5-round performances
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction rating and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Du Plessis' championship advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior long-fight sample (multiple 5-rounders)
- • Proven recovery & mid-fight adjustments
- • Diversified scoring arsenal
- • ELO advantage (+64 points)
- • Championship experience edge
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Chimaev's explosive early grappling
- • One clean back take changes everything
- • Perfect takedown defense (100% TDD)
- • Elite submission rate (2.77 per 15min)
- • Front-loaded finishing profile
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight championship represents the quintessential champion vs explosive challenger dynamic. Du Plessis brings superior long-fight sample, proven recovery abilities, diversified scoring layers, and championship experience built on elite opposition over extended minutes. While Chimaev's explosive early grappling creates legitimate high-variance threats, the combination of Du Plessis' championship pedigree, cardio advantages, and proven ability to find ways to win justifies substantive confidence in a Du Plessis victory at the -163 market price.