Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina
Men's Welterweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Challenger Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Uros Medic
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Punahele Soriano | L | TKO - Right Hook → G&P (R1, 0:31) |
| 2024-04-27 | Tim Means | W | TKO - Uppercut (R1, 2:09) |
| 2023-11-18 | Myktybek Orolbai | L | Sub - Neck Crank (R2, 4:12) |
| 2023-07-29 | Matthew Semelsberger | W | TKO - Spinning Backfist → G&P (R3, 2:36) |
| 2022-05-21 | Omar Morales | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:05) |
Last 5 Fights - Gilbert Urbina
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-03 | Charles Radtke | L | TKO - Left Hook (R1, 4:47) |
| 2023-05-20 | Orion Cosce | W | TKO - Front Body Kick (R2, 2:55) |
| 2021-08-28 | Bryan Battle | L | Sub - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 2:15) |
| 2019-11-01 | Angelo Trevino | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2018-09-14 | Sean Brady | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 65) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 70). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Uros Medic Key Advantages
Elite defensive striking (57% vs 84%) and takedown defense (55% vs 79%) create fortress-like protection
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (62% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pereira's knockout power (83% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges
Must weather Pereira's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 4-5 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
🚀 Gilbert Urbina Key Advantages
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives
Ankalaev's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives
Ankalaev's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Ankalaev at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's explosive knockout power. Having already defeated Pereira once via unanimous decision, Ankalaev enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Ankalaev's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important a championship rounds, while his wrestling pressure (0.80 vs 0.11 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides alternative pathways to victory. However, Pereira's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early rounds where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by timing and conditioning. Pereira's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage (79" vs 75") are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Ankalaev's late- round advantages. Conversely, Ankalaev's path to victory involves weathering the early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics to minimize damage, and pushing the pace in championship rounds where his cardio superiority becomes decisive.
🏁Final Prediction
While Pereira possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 58-40 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the championship variables at play. Expect a competitive, tactical battle where Ankalaev's patience and defensive discipline ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger to claim his first UFC championship.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 22.2% | Edge: +19.8%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 68.3% | Market: 45.5% | Edge: +22.8%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 15% | Market: 11.8% | Edge: +3.2%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Key Value Opportunities
- • Urbina Moneyline (+350) - Excellent value with 19.8% edge (Model: 42% vs Market: 22.2%)
- • Over 1.5 Rounds (+120) - Strong value with 22.8% edge (Model: 68.3% vs Market: 45.5%)
- • Urbina by Submission (+750) - Good value considering Urbina's grappling background
- • Market overpricing Medic's dominance - Not accounting for Urbina's experience and durability
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ankalaev
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Counter-striking opportunities in later rounds
Rare but possible via wrestling pressure
💥Outcome Distribution - Pereira
Main finishing method - one-shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 6/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
Estamos moderadamente confiados en Medić como ligero favorito: su ventaja en precisión y defensa de golpeo es clara y se alinea con la vulnerabilidad histórica de Urbina al impacto limpio. Sin embargo, el gap de grappling (3 TD vs 0.37) y la jaula pequeña introducen suficiente varianza: un par de derribos tempranos pueden volcar el combate. La fragilidad mostrada por ambos en derrotas recientes limita una toma de posición más agresiva – de ahí nuestro 6/10. Si a Medić le vemos defendiendo las dos primeras entradas, el KO debería llegar; si Urbina encadena tiempo de control en R1, el valor pasará a su esquina.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Medic's precision and defensive striking
- • Superior striking accuracy (+60% vs 57%)
- • Proven finishing ability with power
- • Better defensive metrics overall
- • Recent strong performances vs quality opposition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Urbina's massive grappling volume advantage
- • Superior takedown offensive metrics
- • Physical reach and height advantages
- • Dangerous submission threat if fight goes to ground
- • Welterweight division unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight clash represents a fascinating tactical chess match between proven championship-level fighters. Ankalaev's previous victory over Pereira provides both psychological and tactical advantages, but Pereira's knockout power ensures that early exchange carries potential fight-ending consequences. Our model gives Ankalaev the slight edge based on his superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, but Pereira's 83% finish rate creates legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the championship rounds.
The statistical analysis favors Ankalaev's defensive metrics and superior cardio, while Pereira's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate counterarguments. Our model suggests that the betting market has accurately priced this competitive matchup, creating limited but legitimate value opportunities.
Prediction: Ankalaev's proven ability to neutralize Pereira's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship experience ultimately prevail. The narrow 58-42 edge reflects the genuine uncertainty in this stylistic matchup, with the winner likely emerging through either Ankalaev's defensive discipline and late-round cardio superiority, or Pereira's early striking power creating openings for a knockout finish.