Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne
Men's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 2, 2025
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Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
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Recent performance analysis
Steve Erceg
Ode Osbourne
Technical Analysis
Professional comparison of technical capabilities
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (75 vs 63) and Grappling Composite (87 vs 100). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Head-to-head breakdown of key fighting metrics
🥊Fight Analysis Breakdown
Steve Erceg Key Advantages
Championship Cardio
Superior cardio score (80.2 vs 56.5) and proven 15-25 min output in championship fights creates late-round advantage
Wrestling Pressure
0.80 takedowns per 15min vs 0.11 - can pressure and control fight geography when needed
Defensive Striking
Superior striking defense (52% vs 46%) creates better position for counters and volume accumulation
Unfavorable Scenarios
Early Power Exchanges
Osbourne's knockout power (83% finish rate) and reach advantage create danger in pocket exchanges
First Round Storm
Must weather Osbourne's early power and precision before cardio advantages take effect
Likely Gameplan
Defensive Counter-Striking
Use superior defensive metrics to slip strikes and counter with calculated precision
Championship Pacing
Survive early danger and push pace in rounds 2-3 where cardio advantage becomes decisive
Ode Osbourne Key Advantages
Knockout Power
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Striking Precision
Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 53%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Physical Advantages
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
Unfavorable Scenarios
Late Round Fatigue
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Erceg thrives
Wrestling Pressure
Erceg's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
Likely Gameplan
Early Aggression
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Range Control
Utilize reach advantage to keep Erceg at distance and pick shots with precision
🔮Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Steve Erceg Win Probability
Slight favorite based on defensive metrics and cardio
Ode Osbourne Win Probability
Strong chance with superior striking power and precision
Detailed Analysis Summary
Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Erceg's methodical defensive approach and Osbourne's explosive knockout power. Having already defeated Osbourne once via unanimous decision, Erceg enters with both psychological and tactical advantages. His superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs 54%) and exceptional takedown defense (88% vs 79%) create a defensive fortress that has proven difficult for power strikers to penetrate.
Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Erceg's 42% cardio advantage (80.2 vs 56.5) becomes increasingly important in championship rounds where his 42% striking accuracy advantage and devastating knockout power with an 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early storm. However, Osbourne's 17% striking accuracy advantage are substantial, particularly if denied early finish.
Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be decided by timing and conditioning. Erceg's path to victory involves weathering Osbourne's early storm, utilizing his superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning to take over in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. Conversely, Erceg's window of opportunity exists primarily in the first three rounds, where his power and reach advantage are most effective. His ability to land clean shots early could negate Erceg's late-round superiority, but Osbourne must be extremely careful due to Erceg's superior takedown defense and ability to neutralize his opponent's power.
Final Prediction
While Osbourne possesses the tools to score a knockout victory and his striking advantages are legitimate, Erceg's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 65-35 split reflects the quality of both fighters and the multiple variables that could swing each has to victory. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger.
💰Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
FAIR VALUE
SLIGHT VALUE
🔮Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
Outcome Distribution - Erceg
Outcome Distribution - Osbourne
Fight Timeline Analysis
R1
R2
R3
🎯Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Supporting Factors
Erceg leads in output, accuracy, defense, and cardio—advantages that snowball the longer the bout lasts
The cramped Apex cage negates much of Osbourne's length-based outside game
Erceg's recent losses came against top-five flyweights, whereas Osbourne's setbacks were to mid-tier talent—suggesting Erceg's "true level" is higher than the raw records show
Risk Factors
Osbourne's 83% finish rate and one-shot power create constant danger, especially in the opening rounds
5-inch reach deficit could be problematic if Erceg can't close distance effectively
One mistake or lucky shot can completely change the fight's trajectory in MMA
Executive Summary
This flyweight bout rematch presents a fascinating tactical battle between proven championship-level fighters. Erceg's previous victory over Osbourne provides both psychological and tactical advantages, but Osbourne's knockout power ensures that early exchanges remain dangerous.
The statistical analysis favors Erceg's defensive metrics and superior cardio, particularly in championship rounds where his 42% cardio advantage becomes decisive. However, Osbourne's 17% striking accuracy advantage and 83% finish rate create legitimate pathways to victory, especially in the early storm, but Erceg's superior takedown defense and ability to maintain pace provide late-round control when cardio superiority becomes decisive.
Prediction: Erceg's proven ability to neutralize his opponent's power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship conditioning, gives him the slight edge. The 7/10 confidence level reflects the quality of both fighters and the multiple variables that could determine the outcome. Expect a tactical battle where defensive discipline and late-round cardio ultimately prevail, likely resulting in a decision victory for the challenger to claim his first UFC championship.