Andre Fili vs Christian Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Andre Fili
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Melquizael Costa | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 4:30) |
| 2024-06-29 | Cub Swanson | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Dan Ige | L | KO/TKO - Check Right Hook (R1, 2:43) |
| 2023-12-16 | Lucas Almeida | W | KO/TKO - Right Hook (R1, 3:32) |
| 2023-07-22 | Nathaniel Wood | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Christian Rodriguez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Melquizael Costa | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-11 | Austin Bashi | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-13 | Julian Erosa | L | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 4:49) |
| 2024-03-16 | Isaac Dulgarian | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-14 | Cameron Saaiman | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (44 vs 53) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 47). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Andre Fili Key Advantages
Significant physical advantages allow for long-range southpaw kickboxing and first-contact scoring
Southpaw stance creates awkward angles for orthodox Rodriguez, especially with left high kicks
3x more UFC experience and proven ability to adapt during fights
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rodriguez's superior accuracy (51% vs 38%) and counter-striking could exploit Fili's tendency to admire strikes
Rodriguez's superior submission rate (1.18 vs 0.24) and back-take ability could threaten in scrambles
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use jab-teep game to maintain distance, circle off after exchanges, utilize left high kicks
Mix double-legs off jab when Rodriguez plants feet, keep center control to avoid prolonged clinches
🚀 Christian Rodriguez Key Advantages
Elite striking accuracy - one of the division's cleanest sharpshooters with superior shot selection
Elite hips and defensive wrestling - significant advantage against Fili's takedown attempts
Black-belt level transitions with slick back-take ability - constant submission danger in scrambles
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fili's reach and height advantages could make it difficult to close distance effectively
Fili's left high kicks from southpaw stance create awkward timing for orthodox counter-striking
📋 Likely Gameplan
Apply compact pressure to close distance, feint-draw Fili's straight left, counter with right cross
Mix single-leg attempts for mat returns, threaten back-takes in scrambles to steal rounds
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Key Matchup Dynamics
This featherweight bout showcases a classic striker vs counter-striker dynamic, with Fili's physical advantages (4" height, 2.5" reach) creating the foundation for long-range southpaw kickboxing against Rodriguez's compact pressure-counter style. The statistical analysis reveals Rodriguez's superior striking accuracy (51% vs 38%) and elite takedown defense (82% vs 64%) as significant equalizers against Fili's size advantages.
⚡Technical Breakdown
Rodriguez's technical superiority (50 vs 42 overall score) stems from his precision striking and defensive wrestling. His 5x higher submission rate (1.18 vs 0.24 per 15 minutes) adds another dimension to his game, while Fili's experience edge (24 vs 8 UFC fights) provides adaptability but hasn't translated to consistent finishing ability in recent years. The small Apex cage environment favors Rodriguez's pressure-counter style.
🔮Victory Paths
Fili's path to victory requires perfect distance management and consistent use of his southpaw jab-kick game to score at range while mixing well-timed takedown attempts. Rodriguez's route involves closing distance through patient pressure, exploiting Fili's defensive lapses with accurate counter-striking, and potentially securing grappling advantages through his superior submission threat and takedown defense.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
FAIR VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: 65.1%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 34.9%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: ~40%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Fili
57% of his wins | Distance control path
34% of his wins | Southpaw power shots
9% of his wins | Opportunistic grappling
💥Outcome Distribution - Rodriguez
69% of his wins | Accuracy advantage
23% of his wins | Back-take specialist
8% of his wins | Counter-striking
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Fili
- • Round 1: Must establish distance control and jab-kick rhythm early
- • Physical advantages: Use 4" height and 2.5" reach to score from outside
- • Southpaw angles: Create awkward timing with left high kicks
- • Experience factor: Adapt to Rodriguez's pressure patterns
🎯Progressive Dominance - Rodriguez
- • Round 2-3: Accuracy advantage (51% vs 38%) becomes decisive
- • Pressure game: Force pocket exchanges where he excels
- • Defensive wrestling: 82% takedown defense neutralizes Fili's shots
- • Submission threat: 5x higher sub rate creates constant danger
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Rodriguez's technical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior striking accuracy (51% vs 38%)
- • Elite takedown defense (82% vs 64%)
- • 5x higher submission rate
- • Better defensive metrics overall
- • Small cage favors pressure style
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Fili's significant physical advantages
- • Southpaw stance creates awkward angles
- • 3x more UFC experience for Fili
- • Featherweight division volatility
- • Fili's veteran adaptability
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout represents a classic physical advantages vs technical precision matchup. While Fili's 4" height and 2.5" reach advantages create clear opportunities for long-range southpaw kickboxing, Rodriguez's superior striking accuracy (51% vs 38%) and elite takedown defense (82% vs 64%) provide significant equalizers. The statistical analysis strongly favors Rodriguez's technical superiority and defensive skills.
Rodriguez's 5x higher submission rate (1.18 vs 0.24 per 15 minutes) adds another dimension to his game, while the small Apex cage environment favors his pressure-counter style over Fili's movement-based approach. The betting market appears to have accurately priced this fight, with both model and market aligning at 65-35 in favor of Rodriguez.
Prediction: Rodriguez's technical advantages, defensive skills, and submission threat should prove decisive against Fili's physical advantages. The compact frame and accurate striking of Rodriguez align perfectly with the small cage environment, while Fili's recent struggles with accuracy and defensive lapses create vulnerabilities that Rodriguez can exploit. Expect Rodriguez to win via decision through superior shot selection and defensive wrestling, with potential for a submission finish if grappling exchanges occur.