Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama
Men's Bantamweight • UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Elijah Smith
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Vince Morales | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-17 | Aaron Tau | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-16 | Josh Walker | W | TKO - Punches & Elbows (R1, 1:44) |
| 2024-02-17 | Jacob Kreitel | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:37) |
| 2023-12-15 | Robert Trujillo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Toshiomi Kazama
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-10 | Charalampos Grigoriou | W | Submission - Triangle Choke (R2, 1:55) |
| 2023-08-26 | Garrett Armfield | L | TKO - Straight Right (R1, 4:16) |
| 2023-02-04 | Rinya Nakamura | L | KO/TKO - Straight Left (R1, 0:33) |
| 2022-06-09 | Keremuaili Maimaitituoheti | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-24 | Shoji Saito | L | TKO - Flying Knee (R2, 0:06) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (57.6 vs 51.3) and Grappling Composite (72.9 vs 42.9). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🚀 Elijah Smith Key Advantages
Superior takedown efficiency with 4.0 attempts per 15 minutes at 53% accuracy vs Kazama's 1.68 at 13%
22-year-old prospect with physical advantages - 2" height, 2" reach, proven 15-minute gas tank
3.83 SLpM vs 1.72 - can overwhelm Kazama with sheer volume in cage control
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Kazama's superior accuracy (53% vs 42%) and pocket boxing could catch Smith during entries
Mid-tier defense could be vulnerable to Kazama's guillotine and triangle chokes
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use constant forward pressure to set up takedowns, exploit small cage geometry
Maintain top position with ground-and-pound, avoid guillotine traps
🥊 Toshiomi Kazama Key Advantages
Clean 53% striking accuracy vs Smith's 42% - can capitalize on openings with straight rights
6 career submissions with triangle/guillotine specialization - dangerous from bottom
Tends to finish early (6 R1 wins) - can capitalize before Smith's pressure builds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Low cardio score (19.6) suggests vulnerability to Smith's relentless pace
Poor takedown offense (13% accuracy) forces reactive game against superior wrestler
📋 Likely Gameplan
Blitz with straight rights, look for early finish before fatigue sets in
Use scrambles to set up guillotines, pull guard if takedown defense fails
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Key Statistical Disparities
This bantamweight clash presents a classic youth vs. experience dynamic with significant statistical advantages favoring Smith across multiple key metrics. The 22-year-old prospect's 307% higher takedown rate (4.0 vs 1.68 per 15 minutes) combined with dramatically superior accuracy (53% vs 13%) creates an overwhelming wrestling advantage. Smith's 122% higher striking output (3.83 vs 1.72 SLpM) suggests he can control the pace and dictate where the fight takes place.
🏋️Cardio and Conditioning Factors
The cardio differential represents perhaps the most decisive factor in this matchup. Smith's 44.6 cardio score, while modest, significantly exceeds Kazama's concerning 19.6 rating. This disparity aligns with their respective fight durations - Smith averaging 15:00 (full fights) versus Kazama's 6:41 average. In a three-round bantamweight bout, Smith's ability to maintain pressure throughout 15 minutes could prove decisive if he weathers early exchanges.
⚡Finishing Windows and Patterns
Kazama's path to victory requires early execution, as evidenced by his 6 first-round finishes and 81.8% overall finish rate. His triangle choke victory over Grigoriou demonstrates his ability to capitalize on scrambles, while Smith's defensive wrestling could be vulnerable to submission attempts during transition phases. However, Kazama's historical pattern of early finishes or quick losses suggests limited ability to compete in extended exchanges.
🎪Cage Geometry and Stylistic Implications
The small 25-foot cage environment particularly favors Smith's pressure-oriented approach. His southpaw stance and double-leg entries will be more effective in the confined space, while Kazama's pocket boxing style loses some effectiveness when cage walls limit his movement options. Smith's ability to use clinch work and dirty boxing against the fence could neutralize Kazama's precision striking advantages.
🎲Upset Potential and X-Factors
Despite the statistical advantages, Kazama's 28% win probability reflects genuine upset potential. His superior striking accuracy (53% vs 42%) could prove decisive if he can time Smith's entries with counter strikes. The submission threat remains constant - Smith's 62.5% finish rate suggests he could be vulnerable to submission attempts, particularly guillotines during takedown attempts. However, Smith's youth, physical advantages, and superior conditioning suggest he can overcome early adversity and impose his will in the later rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Popular Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
ALIGNED
Model: 72% | Market: 72.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 41.7% | Market: 35.5%
STRONG VALUE
Model: 50.0% | Market: 37.5%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues early finishes - Market underestimates Smith's ability to go the distance
- • Undervalues cardio differential - Kazama's conditioning concerns not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward finishes - Market overreacts to both fighters' finish rates
- • Ignores three-round format - Smith's conditioning advantages more pronounced in 15-minute fights
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🚀Outcome Distribution - Smith
44.4% of his wins | Pressure & conditioning
45.8% of his wins | Ground-and-pound
9.8% of his wins | Limited submission game
🥊Outcome Distribution - Kazama
53.6% of his wins | Triangle/guillotine threat
28.6% of his wins | Counter-striking game
17.8% of his wins | Precision counter-striking
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Kazama
- • First 8 minutes: Maximum striking efficiency and submission threat
- • Round 1: 54.5% of his finishes occur here
- • Early pressure: Must capitalize before cardio becomes factor
- • Scramble opportunities: Use Smith's takedown attempts to set up submissions
🎯Progressive Dominance - Smith
- • Round 2+: Cardio and wrestling advantages emerge
- • Accumulation: Consistent pressure wears down Kazama's defense
- • Ground control: 80% of his finishes come from top position
- • Volume striking: 122% higher output becomes decisive factor
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Smith's elite wrestling (4x takedown rate)
- • Massive cardio advantage (44.6 vs 19.6)
- • Physical advantages (height, reach)
- • Youth and athletic prime
- • Volume striking superiority
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Kazama's early finish capability
- • Submission threat in scrambles
- • Smith's defensive striking (48%)
- • Pocket boxing vulnerability
- • Guillotine exposure on entries
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight bout represents a compelling stylistic clash between Smith's elite wrestling and youth versus Kazama's finishing instincts and submission acumen. The statistical analysis reveals overwhelming advantages for Smith across multiple key metrics, particularly in takedown effectiveness (307% higher rate), cardio conditioning (127% superior score), and striking volume (122% higher output).
The betting market appears correctly aligned with our model's assessment, presenting limited value opportunities beyond the decision prop bet. Smith's -260 line accurately reflects his 72% win probability, while the "Fight Ends in Decision" prop at +100 offers strong value given our model's 50% probability assessment.
Prediction: While Kazama possesses the tools for an early finish and his submission threat cannot be dismissed, Smith's overwhelming statistical advantages, physical superiority, and proven ability to maintain pressure for 15 minutes make him a deserving favorite. The high confidence rating reflects the clear disparity in key performance indicators, with Smith's youth and wrestling dominance likely proving decisive in a three-round bantamweight contest.