Miles Johns vs Jean Matsumoto
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Miles Johns
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Felipe Lima | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-23 | Cody Gibson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Dan Argueta | NC | No Contest (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-19 | Vince Morales | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Jean Matsumoto
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Rob Font | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Brad Katona | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Dan Argueta | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 4:59) |
| 2023-09-12 | Kasey Tanner | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-10 | Marlon Basílio | W | Submission - Mounted Guillotine (R2, 3:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (54.8 vs 46.0) and Grappling Composite (30.1 vs 42.4). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🎯 Miles Johns Key Advantages
Superior 68% striking defense vs 46% - excellent defensive awareness and counter-striking ability
Higher striking composite score (54.8 vs 46.0) with better accuracy and defensive skills
Elite 82% takedown defense vs 58% - can stuff Matsumoto's wrestling attempts effectively
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Matsumoto's 5.18 SLpM vs 3.16 could overwhelm Johns' counter-striking rhythm
Lower cardio score (39.1 vs 54.7) could affect performance in later rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior defensive skills to avoid damage and land clean counter-strikes
Utilize excellent takedown defense to keep fight standing where he has advantages
🔥 Jean Matsumoto Key Advantages
Exceptional 5.18 SLpM vs 3.16 - maintains high pace to overwhelm opponents
2.73 takedowns per 15min vs 0.92 - relentless wrestling pressure with 48% accuracy
Higher cardio score (54.7 vs 39.1) allows sustained pressure throughout fight
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor 46% striking defense could be exposed by Johns' counter-striking skills
High-volume approach could leave openings for Johns' precise counters
📋 Likely Gameplan
Overwhelm with striking volume and create openings for takedown attempts
Use striking to set up takedowns and maintain pressure with grappling threats
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Counter-Striker vs Pressure Fighter Dynamic
This featherweight bout presents a classic stylistic clash between Johns' patient counter-punching approach and Matsumoto's high-volume pressure fighting. Johns, with his superior 68% striking defense and 3.16 SLpM output, represents the technical precision fighter who waits for openings to land clean, damaging strikes. His 82% takedown defense provides an excellent foundation for keeping the fight in his preferred striking range.
🔥Volume and Pressure Analysis
Matsumoto's 5.18 SLpM output creates significant pressure, but his 46% striking defense presents a clear vulnerability. The Brazilian's cardio advantage (54.7 vs 39.1) is substantial and could become decisive in the later rounds. His 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes with 48% accuracy provides a credible grappling threat that Johns must respect throughout the fight.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome hinges on whether Johns can effectively utilize his defensive skills to avoid Matsumoto's volume while landing clean counters. Johns' 54.8 striking composite vs Matsumoto's 46.0 suggests superior technique, but Matsumoto's pressure and cardio could overwhelm the older fighter's defensive shell. The 25-foot cage favors Matsumoto's pressure approach.
🏁Victory Scenarios
Johns' most likely path to victory involves early defensive success, clean counter-striking, and potentially dropping Matsumoto with his power. His 40% finish rate suggests he doesn't need the scorecards when executing his game plan. Matsumoto's victory likely comes through sustained pressure, volume accumulation, and potentially late-round dominance as Johns' cardio becomes a factor.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Value assessment based on probabilistic analysis
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 65% | Market: 30.3% | Edge: +34.7%
HIGH VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 20.0% | Edge: +22.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 31.7% | Edge: +8.3%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Key Value Opportunities
- • Johns Moneyline (+230) - Massive value with 34.7% edge (Model: 65% vs Market: 30.3%)
- • Johns by Points (+400) - Excellent value with 22.0% edge (Model: 42% vs Market: 20.0%)
- • Under 2.5 Rounds (+215) - Good value considering fight dynamics and finish potential
- • Johns by KO/TKO (+750) - Potential value bet given counter-striking ability
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🎯Outcome Distribution - Johns
64.6% of his wins | Counter-striking success
30.8% of his wins | Counter-striking power
4.6% of his wins | Rare but possible
🔥Outcome Distribution - Matsumoto
51.4% of his wins | Volume accumulation
31.4% of his wins | Grappling threat
17.1% of his wins | Volume overwhelm
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Round-by-Round Script
- • R1: Matsumoto storms across with volume, Johns counters selectively (Close 10-9)
- • R2: Johns finds defensive rhythm, clean counters vs Matsumoto's volume (Johns 10-9)
- • R3: Cardio differential emerges, Johns' defensive skills shine (Johns 10-9)
🎯Most Likely Outcome
- • Decision Victory: Johns wins 29-28 on majority of scorecards
- • Key factors: Defensive disparity (+22%), clean counter-striking
- • Matsumoto's path: Early pressure, volume accumulation, cardio utilization
- • Johns' path: Defensive patience, precise counters, experience
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear defensive advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Johns' superior defensive metrics (68% vs 46%)
- • Elite takedown defense (82% vs 58%)
- • Higher striking composite score
- • UFC veteran experience (8 vs 3 fights)
- • Counter-striking precision advantage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Matsumoto's significant cardio advantage
- • Volume pressure could overwhelm defense
- • Johns' lower output rate (3.16 vs 5.18)
- • Age factor (31 vs 25)
- • Featherweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout represents a clear stylistic clash between Johns' defensive counter-striking and Matsumoto's volume pressure approach. Johns' superior defensive metrics (68% vs 46% striking defense, 82% vs 58% takedown defense) create clear advantages, while his higher striking composite score (54.8 vs 46.0) suggests superior technical proficiency in the striking exchanges.
The market's pricing appears efficient, correctly identifying Johns' advantages while appropriately valuing Matsumoto's cardio and volume threats. The 65-35 split reflects both the defensive disparity and the unpredictability inherent in pressure vs counter-striker matchups.
Prediction: Johns' defensive skills and counter-striking ability should prove decisive against Matsumoto's volume approach. While Matsumoto's cardio advantage provides a legitimate path to victory, Johns' superior defensive metrics and UFC experience give him the edge in this technical matchup. The most likely outcome is a Johns decision victory, with the defensive disparity proving too significant for Matsumoto's volume to overcome consistently.