Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Gabriella Fernandes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Cong Wang | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 3:49) |
| 2024-06-15 | Carli Judice | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-17 | Tereza Bleda | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-25 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-30 | Queila Braga | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Julija Stoliarenko
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-03 | Luana Carolina | L | TKO - Punches from Crucifix (R3, 4:52) |
| 2023-07-22 | Molly McCann | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 1:55) |
| 2022-10-01 | Chelsea Chandler | L | TKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 4:15) |
| 2022-07-02 | Jessica-Rose Clark | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 0:42) |
| 2022-02-05 | Alexis Davis | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (43.5 vs 40.4) and Grappling Composite (25.5 vs 40.2). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Gabriella Fernandes Key Advantages
3.46 SLpM vs 2.49 - significantly higher striking output with better accuracy (46% vs 39%)
Better defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing where she excels with superior striking
13:27 average fight time vs 10:08 - proven ability to maintain pace in championship rounds
Coming off strong performances with confidence and rhythm, including submission win over Cong Wang
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged grappling exchanges favor Stoliarenko's submission skills and could neutralize striking advantage
Stoliarenko's early finishing ability (64% R1 finishes) could catch Fernandes before cardio becomes a factor
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize superior striking output and accuracy while maintaining distance to avoid takedown attempts
Push the pace to exploit cardio advantage and force Stoliarenko into defensive positions
🚀 Julija Stoliarenko Key Advantages
1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes - constant finishing threat with 8 career armbars
40.2 grappling composite vs 25.5 - superior ground game with pull-guard and clamp-clinch expertise
Slight physical advantage in clinch and grappling exchanges, same reach but better leverage
7 of 11 wins in Round 1 - dangerous early with quick submission transitions
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended striking exchanges favor Fernandes' superior volume and cardio advantage
Being forced backwards and into defensive shell limits takedown opportunities and submission setups
📋 Likely Gameplan
Pressure for early takedowns and submissions to avoid extended striking exchanges
Utilize clamp-clinch and pull-guard techniques to set up signature armbar submissions
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Stylistic Matchup Analysis
This women's flyweight bout presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic. Fernandes brings superior striking volume (3.46 SLpM vs 2.49) and accuracy (46% vs 39%), while Stoliarenko counters with elite submission skills (1.7 attempts per 15 minutes) and a 91% finish rate. The fight will likely be decided by whether Fernandes can maintain distance and utilize her striking advantages, or if Stoliarenko can close the distance and implement her grappling game.
⚡Key Performance Factors
Fernandes' cardio advantage (55.0 vs 39.2) becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses. Her ability to maintain a high pace for 13+ minutes gives her a significant edge in a 3-round fight. However, Stoliarenko's early finishing ability (64% of wins in Round 1) means she doesn't need to rely on cardio if she can secure an early takedown and submission attempt.
🔮Fight Prediction Breakdown
Statistical analysis shows Fernandes controlling distance and out-striking Stoliarenko in approximately 65% of scenarios. However, Stoliarenko's submission threat flips roughly 28% of fights in her favor, almost exclusively through quick armbar or rear-naked choke transitions. The remaining 7% accounts for rare KO/TKO scenarios or late fight submissions.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
HIGH VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: 12.5% | Edge: +15.5%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: 32.3% | Edge: +12.7%
OVERVALUED
Model: 47.6% | Market: 63.6% | Edge: -16.0%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Key Value Opportunities
- • Stoliarenko by Submission (+700) - Excellent value with 15.5% edge (Model: 28% vs Market: 12.5%)
- • Fernandes by Points (+210) - Strong value opportunity with 12.7% edge (Model: 45% vs Market: 32.3%)
- • Over 2.5 Rounds (+145) - Good value considering Fernandes' cardio advantage and fight pace
- • Stoliarenko Moneyline (+300) - Potential value bet given submission threat and early finish potential
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Fernandes
66.2% of her wins | Volume striking advantage
22.1% of her wins | Accumulation striking
11.7% of her wins | Defensive grappling
💥Outcome Distribution - Stoliarenko
87.5% of her wins | Primary finishing method
9.4% of her wins | Unlikely scenario
0% historical KO/TKO rate
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Stoliarenko
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum submission threat and energy
- • Round 1: 64% of her wins occur here
- • Early takedowns: Must secure dominant position quickly
- • Armbar setups: Signature technique most dangerous early
🎯Progressive Advantage - Fernandes
- • Round 2+: Cardio advantage becomes apparent
- • Volume accumulation: Striking output wears down opponent
- • Pace control: Dictates fight rhythm and distance
- • Late rounds: 70% of her wins come in R3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Fernandes' superior striking volume (+39%)
- • Significant cardio advantage (55.0 vs 39.2)
- • Current momentum (2-fight win streak)
- • Better takedown defense (60% vs 55%)
- • Proven ability to maintain pace
- • Clear statistical edges in multiple areas
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Stoliarenko's elite submission threat
- • 91% finish rate danger
- • Early round vulnerability (64% R1 finishes)
- • Grappling experience gap
- • Women's flyweight division volatility
- • One mistake could change everything
🏁Executive Summary
This women's flyweight bout represents a compelling stylistic clash between Fernandes' volume striking and superior cardio against Stoliarenko's elite submission skills and early finishing ability. The statistical analysis shows multiple converging advantages for Fernandes: 39% higher striking output, significant cardio superiority (55.0 vs 39.2), and current momentum with a 2-fight win streak.
However, Stoliarenko's 91% finish rate and 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes create genuine upset potential. Her ability to finish 64% of her wins in Round 1 means the fight could end before Fernandes' cardio advantage becomes a factor. The key battle will be Fernandes' ability to maintain distance and utilize her superior striking volume against Stoliarenko's takedown pressure and submission threats.
Prediction: Fernandes' multiple statistical advantages and current form create a compelling case for victory, but Stoliarenko's submission skills keep this from being a lock. The 68-32 prediction reflects confidence in the striking vs. grappling matchup while acknowledging the constant finishing threat that makes women's flyweight bouts inherently unpredictable.