Alex Perez vs Steve Erceg
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Alex Perez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-15 | Tatsuro Taira | L | TKO - Knee Injury From Takedown (R2, 2:59) |
| 2024-04-27 | Matheus Nicolau | W | TKO - Right Hook (R2, 2:16) |
| 2024-03-02 | Muhammad Mokaev | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-30 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:31) |
| 2018-08-04 | José Torres | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 3:36) |
Last 5 Fights - Steve Erceg
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Brandon Moreno | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-17 | Kai Kara-France | L | TKO - Right Cross to Ground Strikes (R1, 4:04) |
| 2024-05-04 | Alexandre Pantoja | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Matt Schnell | W | TKO - Straight Right to Left Hook (R2, 0:26) |
| 2023-11-11 | Alessandro Costa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52.9 vs 49.0) and Grappling Composite (48.0 vs 29.5). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Alex Perez Key Advantages
Elite grappling composite (48.0 vs 29.5) with superior takedown volume (2.04 vs 0.84 per 15min)
Significant submission rate (0.85 per 15min vs 0.34) with guillotine and anaconda specialties
Explosive first-round finisher with 60% of wins coming in Round 1 (15/25 career wins)
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage (46.1 vs 57.3) could become decisive in long fight scenarios
Reach disadvantage (-2.5") and inferior striking defense (59% vs 52%) at range
📋 Likely Gameplan
Blitz early with calf kicks and level changes, seeking quick takedowns and submissions
Target guillotines and anacondas in scrambles, especially as Erceg attempts to stand
🚀 Steve Erceg Key Advantages
Superior cardio score (57.3 vs 46.1) with longer average fight duration (14:55 vs 6:47)
Height (5'8" vs 5'6") and reach (68" vs 65.5") advantages ideal for distance control
Southpaw switch-hitter with heavy jab-cross and rear-kick game from multiple angles
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Inferior takedown defense (64% vs 72%) and vulnerable to submission attempts
Absorbs more strikes (4.03 vs 3.20 per minute) with defensive gaps shown vs Kara-France
📋 Likely Gameplan
Circle off cage, use teeps and outside leg kicks to slow Perez's explosive entries
Sprawl-and-brawl to the outer lane, turn on pace minute 7+ where Perez historically fades
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🤼Stylistic Matchup
This flyweight clash presents a classic grappler vs. striker dynamic with significant physical disparities. Perez brings elite wrestling credentials and submission threats, while Erceg leverages physical advantages and superior cardio conditioning. Statistical analysis reveals Perez's 62.7% grappling advantage (48.0 vs 29.5 composite) as the primary determining factor, though Erceg's 24.3% cardio edge (57.3 vs 46.1) creates legitimate pathways to victory in extended exchanges.
⚡Key Battle Phases
The opening exchanges will be crucial, with Perez historically securing 60% of his victories in Round 1 through explosive wrestling and submission attempts. Erceg's physical advantages (2" height, 2.5" reach) must be utilized immediately to establish distance control before Perez's pressure overwhelms his defensive wrestling. The fight's trajectory depends on whether Perez can implement his high-volume takedown game (2.04 per 15min) against Erceg's moderate defensive wrestling (64% TDD).
🎯Victory Scenarios
Perez's path to victory revolves around explosive early pressure, utilizing his 71% UFC finish rate and superior submission threat (0.85 vs 0.34 per 15min). His gameplan involves early takedowns, transitioning to submission attempts, particularly guillotines and anacondas in scrambles. Erceg's victory depends on successfully sprawling and maintaining distance, utilizing his cardio advantages in later rounds where Perez has historically shown vulnerability.
🏁Final Prediction
While Erceg possesses legitimate advantages in cardio and physical dimensions, Perez's wrestling dominance and proven finishing ability give him the edge in this matchup. The 58-42 split reflects Perez's ability to force his game plan through explosive takedowns and submission threats, while acknowledging Erceg's pathways to victory through distance management and late-round pressure. Expect an action-packed fight with Perez likely securing victory within the first two rounds if he can implement his wrestling game effectively.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
FAIR VALUE
Model: 58% | Market: 58%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 42%
PROP VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: ~24%
📈Market Efficiency Analysis
- • Highly efficient pricing - Market perfectly captures model probabilities
- • No significant value opportunities - Both moneylines align with analytical assessment
- • Prop markets fairly priced - Method-specific bets reflect realistic probabilities
- • Sharp market assessment - Wrestling advantage properly weighted against cardio concerns
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Perez
41.4% of his wins | Explosive early finisher
34.5% of his wins | Through pressure and control
24.1% of his wins | Guillotine and anaconda specialist
💥Outcome Distribution - Erceg
54.8% of his wins | Volume striking and cardio
38.1% of his wins | Southpaw power shots
7.1% of his wins | Opportunistic ground game
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Early Opportunity - Perez
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum explosive advantage and submission threat
- • Round 1: 60% of his career wins occur here (15/25 victories)
- • Takedown pressure: 2.04 attempts per 15min with 46% accuracy
- • Submission hunting: 0.85 attempts per 15min in scrambles
🔄Late Rally - Erceg
- • Round 2+: Cardio advantage (57.3 vs 46.1) becomes factor
- • Distance control: 2.5" reach advantage for striking at range
- • Defensive wrestling: 64% TDD must withstand early pressure
- • Volume striking: Higher output in extended exchanges
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderately high confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Perez's 62.7% grappling advantage
- • Elite submission threat (0.85 per 15min)
- • 71% UFC finish rate
- • Explosive first-round capabilities
- • Clear stylistic mismatch in favor
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Erceg's 24.3% cardio advantage
- • Physical disadvantages (height/reach)
- • Injury history concerns
- • Erceg's defensive improvements
- • Flyweight division unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight matchup presents a compelling clash of styles with Perez's explosive wrestling and submission threats facing Erceg's physical advantages and superior cardio conditioning. Statistical analysis reveals Perez's significant grappling edge (62.7% advantage in composite score) as the primary determining factor, supported by his elite finish rate (71%) and proven ability to secure early victories.
The betting market demonstrates exceptional efficiency, with both moneylines perfectly aligned with our analytical model at 58-42 probability split. This suggests sharp market assessment of both fighters' capabilities and the stylistic dynamics at play.
Prediction: Perez's ability to implement his explosive wrestling game early will likely determine the outcome. While Erceg possesses legitimate pathways to victory through distance management and late-round cardio advantages, Perez's 60% first-round victory rate and superior submission threats make him the justified favorite. Expect an action-packed fight with Perez securing victory through either early finish or dominant grappling control.