Iasmin Lucindo vs Angela Hill
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Iasmin Lucindo
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Amanda Lemos | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Marina Rodriguez | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-04 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-12 | Polyana Viana | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R2, 3:42) |
| 2023-04-22 | Brogan Walker | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Angela Hill
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Ketlen Souza | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | Tabatha Ricci | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Luana Pinheiro | W | Submission - Mounted Guillotine (R2, 4:12) |
| 2023-11-04 | Denise Gomes | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Mackenzie Dern | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (55 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (67 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Comparison (Radar)
Detailed Statistical Comparison
| Metric | Iasmin Lucindo | Angela Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Strikes Landed/Min | 2.9 per min | 5.5 per min |
| Striking Accuracy | 45.0 % | 50.0 % |
| Striking Defense | 66.0 % | 61.0 % |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 2.5 per min | 4.9 per min |
| Takedowns/15min | 2.1 per 15min | 0.8 per 15min |
| Takedown Accuracy | 60.0 % | 33.0 % |
| Takedown Defense | 55.0 % | 75.0 % |
| Submissions/15min | 0.2 per 15min | 0.1 per 15min |
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Iasmin Lucindo Key Advantages
Superior takedown accuracy (60% vs 33%) and 2.65x higher takedown volume creates constant pressure
At 23, Lucindo is in her athletic prime while Hill is dealing with age-related decline
Recent arm-triangle finish shows evolving ground game and submission skills
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Hill's superior striking volume (5.47 vs 2.94 SLpM) could overwhelm Lucindo in prolonged stand-up battles
Hill's 75% TDD could neutralize Lucindo's primary weapon, forcing reliance on less effective striking
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use striking entries to set up takedown attempts, crash the pocket behind overhand rights
Chain wrestling into half-guard, hunt for wrist control and incremental ground-and-pound
🥊 Angela Hill Key Advantages
5.47 SLpM at 50% accuracy vs 2.94 SLpM at 45% - massive striking advantage
Excellent takedown defense could neutralize Lucindo's primary weapon
Massive experience advantage and proven ability to adapt mid-fight
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Conceding early takedowns could lead to accumulated damage and control time
At 40, natural athletic decline could show in later rounds against younger opponent
📋 Likely Gameplan
Lateral footwork, feint-high-kick combos, build long multi-punch sequences
Deny under-hooks, circle off cage, use high clinch knees if Lucindo shoots sloppy
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🎯Stylistic Match-up Analysis
This women's strawweight bout presents a classic grappler vs striker dynamic with significant age and experience differentials. Lucindo's youth (23 vs 40) and superior grappling credentials (60% TD accuracy vs 33%) create clear paths to victory through wrestling pressure and ground control. The 25-foot cage geometry favors her takedown-heavy approach by reducing lateral escape routes.
⚖️Key Statistical Disparities
Hill's massive striking advantage (5.47 vs 2.94 SLpM) at superior accuracy (50% vs 45%) represents her primary weapon, but Lucindo's 2.65x takedown volume advantage and recent submission finish against Viana demonstrate evolving finishing ability. Hill's 75% takedown defense will be crucial - if she can maintain vertical base for extended periods, her volume striking becomes decisive.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Lucindo's path involves implementing her MMA Masters gameplan: crash the pocket behind overhand rights, chain wrestling into half-guard positions, and hunt for incremental ground-and-pound or submission opportunities. Her 17-year age advantage suggests she can maintain this pressure for all three rounds.
Hill's success depends on perfect takedown defense execution and sustained striking output. Her Alliance MMA training emphasizes lateral movement and multi-punch combinations that could overwhelm Lucindo if the fight remains standing. At 40, she needs to establish dominance early before potential athletic decline factors emerge.
🏁Final Prediction
The 65-35 split favors Lucindo despite her recent loss, considering her strong overall form (4-1 in last 5), youth advantage, and superior grappling credentials. While Hill enters with positive momentum (3-2 in last 5) and a recent win, her striking volume and veteran experience will be tested against Lucindo's evolving ground game. The key factor will be whether Hill can maintain her recent success in neutralizing takedown attempts.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment based on probabilistic simulation
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: 33.9%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: 17.4%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 7% | Market: 3.8%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Hill by Decision (+195) - Model shows 25% probability vs 33.9% market implied
- • High Value: Under 2.5 Rounds (+475) - Model 28% vs 17.4% market implied
- • Good Value: Hill by KO/TKO (+2500) - Model 7% vs 3.8% market implied
- • Fair Value: Lucindo Moneyline (-180) - Model 65% vs 64.3% market implied
- • Overvalued: Lucindo by Decision (-175) - Market overpricing the decision outcome
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🔥Outcome Distribution - Lucindo
Wrestling pressure accumulates points
Arm-triangle or rear naked choke
Accumulated ground strikes
🥊Outcome Distribution - Hill
High pace, stuff TDs, win on strikes
Accumulated knees & elbows
Guillotine defending shot
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
🎯Lucindo's Path to Victory
- • Round 1: Establish takedown threat early, control cage center
- • Round 2: Chain wrestling sequences, accumulate control time
- • Round 3: Youth advantage emerges, hunt for finish
- • Key factor: Small cage geometry limits Hill's lateral movement
🥊Hill's Path to Victory
- • Round 1: High output striking, establish range control
- • Round 2: Maintain 75% TDD, volume accumulation
- • Round 3: Experience vs youth - adapt or fade
- • Key factor: Perfect takedown defense execution required
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction rating and key factors analysis
Confidence Level
Strong conviction based on multiple converging factors
✅Supporting Factors
- • 17-year youth advantage
- • Superior grappling credentials
- • 2.65x takedown volume
- • Small cage geometry benefits
- • Recent submission evolution
- • Athletic prime vs decline
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Hill's 75% takedown defense
- • Massive striking volume disadvantage
- • Veteran experience gap
- • Hill's proven adaptability
- • Lucindo's striking limitations
- • Women's MMA volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This women's strawweight bout represents a compelling clash between youth and experience, with clear stylistic advantages favoring the younger grappler. Lucindo's 65% win probability stems from multiple converging factors: her 17-year age advantage, superior takedown credentials (60% vs 33% accuracy), and the 25-foot cage geometry that limits Hill's lateral escape routes. The recent arm-triangle finish against Viana demonstrates evolving submission skills.
However, Hill's path to victory remains viable through her massive striking advantages (5.47 vs 2.94 SLpM) and proven 75% takedown defense. At 40, she represents the classic veteran who could neutralize youth through experience and technical refinement. The key battle lies in whether Hill can maintain vertical base for extended periods.
Prediction: Expect Lucindo to bank at least two rounds through takedown pressure and positional control, with Hill needing near-perfect defensive wrestling to flip the script. The 7/10 confidence reflects the convergence of age, style, and environmental factors that historically favor the younger wrestler in this division.