Eryk Anders vs Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Veteran Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Eryk Anders
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Chris Weidman | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 4:51) |
| 2024-03-02 | Jamie Pickett | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Marc-André Barriault | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-03 | Kyle Daukaus | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 2:45) |
| 2022-05-21 | Jun Yong Park | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Christian Leroy Duncan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Andrey Pulyaev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-07-27 | Gregory Rodrigues | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Claudio Ribeiro | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R2, 1:57) |
| 2023-11-18 | Denis Tiuliulin | W | TKO - Punches & Elbows (R2, 4:24) |
| 2023-06-17 | Armen Petrosyan | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (49 vs 74) and Grappling Composite (52 vs 38). Duncan's superior striking metrics give him the edge despite Anders' grappling advantage.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Anders' durability and experience give him a slight edge in championship cardio.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Duncan's striking prowess narrowly edges Anders' veteran experience and physical toughness.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (3.54 vs 4.75), Striking Accuracy (48% vs 59%), Striking Defense (50% vs 51%), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute (4.05 vs 3.01). Duncan's superior output, accuracy, and defense create a significant advantage.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (1.71 vs 0.24), Takedown Accuracy (24% vs 11%), Takedown Defense (80% vs 72%), and Submission Attempts per 15min (0.10 vs 0.00). Anders' pressure wrestling and defensive skills give him a clear grappling edge.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💪 Eryk Anders Key Advantages
Superior takedown volume (1.71 vs 0.24/15min) and stronger takedown defense (80% vs 72%)
Extensive octagon experience and proven ability to adapt mid-fight against varied opponents
Excellent durability and cardio score advantage for sustained pressure over 3 rounds
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Duncan's superior striking volume and accuracy could win rounds if kept at distance
4-inch reach deficit makes closing distance more difficult and energy-consuming
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use southpaw pressure boxing to close distance and force clinch exchanges
Chain wrestling attempts to create control time and ground-and-pound opportunities
🚀 Christian Leroy Duncan Key Advantages
Superior striking volume (4.75 vs 3.54 SLpM) and accuracy (59% vs 48%) while absorbing less damage
Height and reach advantages plus switch-stance versatility create difficult matchup problems
High finish rate with dynamic striking creates constant knockout threat throughout the fight
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended ground exchanges could neutralize striking advantages and lead to control time losses
Anders' southpaw pressure could disrupt rhythm and force uncomfortable close-range exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage with kicks and straight punches to control distance and prevent clinch
Use switch-stance versatility to create angles and disrupt Anders' southpaw timing
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🔍Stylistic Breakdown
This middleweight clash presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic, with Duncan's superior striking metrics (4.75 vs 3.54 SLpM, 59% vs 48% accuracy) facing Anders' wrestling pressure and veteran experience. Duncan's 51% striking composite advantage is countered by Anders' 36.8% grappling dominance, creating a compelling stylistic tension that will likely determine the outcome.
📏Physical Factors
Duncan's 4-inch reach advantage and 1-inch height edge create significant distance control opportunities, while his switch-stance versatility adds complexity to Anders' pressure entries. However, Anders' southpaw stance and pressure boxing background give him tools to close distance effectively. The 9-year age gap favors Duncan's explosiveness, but Anders' superior cardio score (62 vs 60) suggests better late-round endurance.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be decided in the clinch transitions where Anders' pressure meets Duncan's distance management. Duncan's 81.8% finish rate creates constant knockout threat, while Anders' grappling edge (1.71 vs 0.24 takedowns per 15 minutes) provides a clear path to control rounds. Duncan's superior striking defense (51% vs 50%) is marginal, making his distance control crucial for victory.
🏁Final Prediction
Duncan's striking advantages and physical tools give him the edge in this matchup, but Anders' veteran experience and grappling threat keep this competitive. The 60-40 split reflects Duncan's superior technical skills and finish rate, while acknowledging Anders' ability to grind out rounds through wrestling pressure. Expect a tactical battle where distance control and takedown defense will be the determining factors.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 24% | Market: 7.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: 39.2%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 21.7%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Anders by KO/TKO (+1200) - Model shows 24% probability vs 7.7% market implied
- • High Value: Anders Moneyline (+360) - Model 40% vs 21.7% market implied
- • Good Value: Under 2.5 Rounds (+155) - Model 50% vs 39.2% market implied
- • Fair Value: Duncan Moneyline (-460) - Model 60% vs 82.1% market implied
- • Overvalued: Duncan by Decision (-125) - Market overpricing the decision path
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💪Outcome Distribution - Anders
Ground strikes and pressure boxing
Grappling control and cardio advantage
Opportunistic ground control
🚀Outcome Distribution - Duncan
Dynamic striking and switch-stance attacks
Volume striking and distance control
Opportunistic scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis - 3 Rounds
Round-by-Round Breakdown: This analysis projects how each round will unfold based on fighter tendencies, cardio patterns, and strategic adjustments. Duncan's early striking advantage may diminish as Anders' pressure wrestling and veteran experience become more pronounced in later rounds.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Duncan's superior striking metrics (59% vs 48% accuracy)
- • Significant reach advantage (4 inches)
- • Higher finish rate (81.8% vs 64.7%)
- • Switch-stance versatility
- • Age and athleticism advantage
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Anders' grappling dominance (1.71 vs 0.24 TD/15min)
- • Veteran experience (18 UFC fights)
- • Superior takedown defense (80% vs 72%)
- • Pressure boxing style
- • Middleweight division unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight bout represents a compelling clash between Duncan's superior striking credentials and Anders' veteran grappling pressure. Duncan's 51% striking composite advantage, combined with his 4-inch reach edge and 81.8% finish rate, creates multiple paths to victory through distance control and dynamic striking exchanges. However, Anders' 36.8% grappling advantage and proven ability to grind out decisions through wrestling pressure cannot be overlooked.
The betting market appears to slightly undervalue Duncan's technical advantages, with our model suggesting a 60-40 edge that aligns closely with market odds. The key value opportunity lies in Anders' decision props, where his grappling-heavy approach and cardio advantages create a viable path to victory that the market may be underestimating.
Prediction: This fight hinges on whether Duncan can maintain distance and utilize his striking superiority for 15 minutes, or if Anders' relentless pressure and grappling experience will eventually break through. The 60-40 prediction favors Duncan's technical advantages and physical tools, but acknowledges the veteran's ability to find ways to win through sustained pressure and tactical adjustments.