Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Dolidze
UFC Middleweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez
Monday, September 8, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Anthony Hernandez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Brendan Allen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-19 | Michel Pereira | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R5, 2:22) |
| 2024-02-17 | Roman Kopylov | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:23) |
| 2023-05-20 | Edmen Shahbazyan | W | TKO - Ground & Pound (R3, 1:01) |
| 2022-09-17 | Marc-André Barriault | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R3, 1:53) |
Last 5 Fights - Roman Dolidze
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Kevin Holland | W | TKO - Rib Injury (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Anthony Smith | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-03 | Nassourdine Imavov | L | Decision - Majority (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Marvin Vettori | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (65 vs 72) and Grappling Composite (92 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Anthony Hernandez Key Advantages
Massive takedown volume (6.27 vs 1.11 per 15min) - relentless pressure wrestler with chain wrestling ability
Elite submission threat (1.95 vs 0.91 per 15min) - 57% of wins by submission, dangerous from all positions
Elite conditioning for 5-round pace - work rate actually increases in later rounds
Perfect 5-0 run with 4 finishes - confidence and timing at career peak
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Suspect striking defense (46%) leaves him open to power shots during takedown entries
Must close distance against longer opponent - increases exposure to counter-strikes
📋 Likely Gameplan
Crash the pocket early, chain takedown attempts, use superior cardio to maintain relentless pace
Focus on positional control, hunt for rear naked chokes and arm triangles from top position
⚡ Roman Dolidze Key Advantages
Elite knockout power - 8 of 15 wins by KO/TKO with multiple first-round finishes
Size and reach advantage allows him to control distance and land power shots at range
Dangerous heel hook and kneebar attacks from bottom position - creates scramble opportunities
Patient striker who capitalizes on entries - heavy left hook and calf kicks off angles
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Historically weak 33% TDD against elite wrestler - major vulnerability against grinding pace
Volume drops significantly after 10 minutes - vulnerable to late-round pressure
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach advantage to keep distance, stuff takedowns, counter with heavy shots
If taken down, immediately hunt for heel hooks and kneebars to create scrambles
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on 100 statistical simulations
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Statistical Analysis reveals clear advantages
This middleweight clash showcases one of the most lopsided grappling advantages in recent memory. Hernandez's 6.27 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Dolidze's 1.11 represents a staggering 465% advantage in wrestling pressure. When combined with Dolidze's historically poor 33% takedown defense, this creates a perfect storm for Hernandez's grappling-heavy approach. The submission threat disparity is equally telling - Hernandez's 1.95 attempts per 15 minutes compared to Dolidze's 0.91 shows a fighter who actively hunts for finishes once the fight hits the ground.
⚡Key Matchup Dynamics
The cage size at the UFC Apex (25ft) works heavily in Hernandez's favor, providing less room for Dolidze to circle and utilize his reach advantage. Hernandez's relentless pace and chain wrestling becomes increasingly dangerous as the fight progresses - his cardio score of 49 versus Dolidze's 32 suggests significant late-round advantages. While Dolidze possesses legitimate one-shot knockout power (53% of wins by KO/TKO), his window of opportunity narrows considerably once Hernandez establishes his grinding pace.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Hernandez's primary path to victory involves weathering Dolidze's early power shots, then implementing his pressure wrestling game. His 5-fight win streak with 4 finishes demonstrates a fighter hitting his technical and physical peak. The submission threat remains constant throughout all five rounds, with rear naked chokes and arm triangles being his most dangerous weapons. Dolidze's best chance lies in the opening 10 minutes, where his power striking and leg lock threats from bottom position create the most danger for Hernandez.
🏁Final Prediction
The 72-28 split reflects the substantial stylistic advantage Hernandez possesses. His elite grappling, superior cardio, and current momentum create multiple paths to victory, while Dolidze's hopes rest primarily on early knockout power that must be deployed before the wrestling pressure becomes overwhelming. Expect Hernandez to implement his gameplan successfully, with a submission finish being the most likely outcome as Dolidze's takedown defense deteriorates under the relentless pace.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive betting value assessment and market analysis
📊Market Odds
Method Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (Estimated Odds)
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 25.6%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 72% | Market: 56.5%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: 34.5%
🎯Highest Probability Bets
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
- • Best Value: Hernandez by Submission (+290) - Model shows 35% probability vs 25.6% market implied
- • High Value: Over 3.5 Rounds (-130) - Model 72% vs 56.5% market implied
- • Good Value: Hernandez by Decision (+190) - Model 22% vs 34.5% market implied
- • Fair Value: Hernandez Moneyline (-280) - Model 72% vs 73.7% market implied
- • Overvalued: Under 3.5 Rounds (+100) - Market overpricing the early finish
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Hernandez
Primary weapon - rear naked chokes and arm triangles
Grappling control dominance over 5 rounds
Ground and pound or attrition TKO
💥Outcome Distribution - Dolidze
64% of his total wins - one-shot power
Unlikely given wrestling pressure
Early heel hook before sweat factor
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Dolidze
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum power and leg lock threat
- • Round 1: 53% of his wins occur in first round
- • Counter-striking: Must capitalize on entry attempts
- • Leg lock scrambles: Early heel hook before sweat factor
🎯Progressive Dominance - Hernandez
- • Round 3+: Cardio and grappling advantages compound
- • Accumulation: Takedown pressure wears down defense
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout all rounds
- • Grinding pace: Work rate increases as fight progresses
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to massive statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive grappling advantage (465%)
- • Superior cardio for 5 rounds
- • Elite submission threat
- • Perfect current momentum (5-0)
- • Dolidze's poor takedown defense
- • Cage size favors pressure wrestling
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Dolidze's one-shot knockout power
- • Hernandez's suspect striking defense
- • Early leg lock threats
- • Reach disadvantage on entries
- • Heavyweight volatility factor
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight main event represents one of the most lopsided stylistic matchups in recent UFC history. Hernandez's 465% advantage in takedown volume (6.27 vs 1.11 per 15 minutes) combined with Dolidze's historically poor 33% takedown defense creates a perfect storm for the elite grappler. The submission threat disparity (1.95 vs 0.91 attempts per 15 minutes) and superior cardio conditioning (49 vs 32 score) provide multiple clear paths to victory for Hernandez.
While Dolidze possesses legitimate one-shot knockout power (53% of wins by KO/TKO) and dangerous leg lock threats from bottom position, his window of opportunity is severely constrained by the 25-foot Apex cage and Hernandez's relentless pace. The Georgian's cardio concerns and tendency to accept bottom position while fishing for leg locks plays directly into Hernandez's strength.
Bottom Line: The 72-28 probability split reflects the substantial statistical advantages Hernandez possesses across multiple key metrics. His current 5-fight win streak with 4 finishes demonstrates a fighter at his technical and physical peak. Expect Hernandez to implement his pressure wrestling gameplan successfully, with a submission finish being the most likely outcome as the fight progresses into the championship rounds where his advantages become most pronounced.