Austin Bashi vs John Yannis
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Wrestling Specialist Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Striker Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Austin Bashi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Dorian Ramos | W | Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:15) |
| 2024-06-01 | Zac Riley | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:48) |
| 2023-09-30 | Askar Askar | W | Short Choke (R2, 1:48) |
| 2023-06-24 | Erik Vo | W | Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:27) |
Last 5 Fights - John Yannis
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-25 | Nick Aguirre | W | TKO - Punches (R4, 3:08) |
| 2024-12-15 | CJ Jimenez | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 0:09) |
| 2024-09-22 | Dimas Chapa | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 1:59) |
| 2024-03-10 | Gabriel Wanderley | L | Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:26) |
| 2023-10-22 | Eduardo Alvarado | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (60 vs 70) and Grappling Composite (80 vs 45). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Austin Bashi Key Advantages
Elite wrestling with 8.4 takedowns per 15min vs 0.8 - can control location and position consistently
Constant submission danger with 1.3 attempts per 15min - averages over 1 sub attempt per round
Relentless chain-wrestling in 25ft cage means shorter resets and easier clinch entries
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Yannis' knockout power and volume striking could damage Bashi when standing at range
Below-average striking defense (47%) makes him vulnerable when hanging out at boxing range
📋 Likely Gameplan
Level-change off jabs, chain takedown attempts, pressure against the fence for control
Ride half-guard, hunt arm-triangles and back-takes, treat rounds like mini-matches for control time
🚀 John Yannis Key Advantages
Elite one-shot knockout power with 10 KO/TKO wins - can end fight with single clean strike
Superior striking accuracy (52% vs 49%) and volume (5.00 vs 3.66 SLpM) create constant pressure
Significant reach advantage (79" vs 75") and height edge allow control of striking distance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Cardio disadvantage becomes critical in championship rounds where Ankalaev thrives
Bashi's wrestling volume and superior takedown defense could neutralize striking advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Press the action early with power strikes before cardio disadvantage becomes factor
Utilize reach advantage to keep Ankalaev at distance and pick shots with precision
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight title rematch presents a fascinating tactical chess match between Ankalaev's methodical defensive approach and Pereira's knockout power from the striking arts. Ankalaev, as the challenger, brings the psychological advantage of having already proven himself against former champions, evidenced by his current 4-fight win streak and ability to neutralize opponent's power. His championship experience includes victories over former champions and top contenders, demonstrating his ability to elevate his game when it matters most.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals contrasting strengths that could determine the outcome. Bashi's 77.8% grappling advantage is primarily driven by his elite takedown rate (8.4 vs 0.8 per 15 minutes) and superior submission threat (1.3 vs 0.1 attempts per 15 minutes). However, Yannis' striking metrics tell a compelling counter-narrative: his 16.7% superior striking accuracy (47% vs 49%) and exceptional knockout power create a defensive fortress that could neutralize Bashi's primary weapons.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Yannis' reach advantage (68" vs 70") and superior striking output could establish early dominance; the grappling transitions where Bashi's takedown pressure meets Yannis' estimated 50% defense; and the championship rounds where Bashi's superior cardio score (75 vs 60) and proven championship endurance could become decisive factors. Yannis' 5 knockout finishes suggest early aggression, while Bashi's submission threat remains constant throughout all three rounds.
🏁Final Prediction
While Yannis possesses the tools to win this fight and his striking advantages are legitimate, Bashi's grappling dominance, superior cardio, and proven ability to find ways to win in hostile environments give him the clear edge. The 68-32 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the stylistic variables at play. Expect a competitive, technical battle that showcases the very best of both the striking and grappling arts, with the winner likely emerging through either Bashi's grappling control or Yannis' early knockout power.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: ~28%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 37% | Market: ~37%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 58.3% | Market: 50%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Bashi's wrestling volume - Market doesn't account for Yannis' knockout power efficiency
- • Undervalues Yannis' finishing ability - Superior KO rate and reach not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward grappling - Market overreacts to Bashi's DWCS submission performance
- • Ignores cardio differential - Bashi's superior conditioning in 3-round format creates value
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Bashi
Primary path to victory via cardio and defense
Elite grappling pressure-based finishes
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Yannis
Main finishing method - one shot power
Less likely due to cardio disadvantage
Minimal submission threat historically
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Yannis
- • First 7-8 minutes: Maximum striking advantage and TDD effectiveness
- • Round 1-2: 62% of his finishes occur here (0 R1 + 3 R2)
- • Distance control: Must utilize reach and defensive striking early
- • Power shots: Land fight-ending strikes before cardio fades
🎯Progressive Dominance - Bashi
- • Round 2+: Wrestling pressure and cardio advantages emerge
- • Accumulation: Takedown pressure wears down TDD over time
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout all rounds
- • Late finish: Higher submission rate in later rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level: 7/10 - Competitive rematch with multiple variables
Confidence Level
We're confident because the matchup heavily rewards Bashi's elite wrestling in a small cage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Bashi's wrestling dominance
- • Superior grappling credentials
- • Proven finishing ability
- • Strong cardio for 3 rounds
- • Historical grappler vs striker patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Yannis' knockout power
- • Superior striking volume metrics
- • Physical reach advantage
- • Dangerous early in fights
- • Featherweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout represents a fascinating tactical chess match between Bashi's elite grappling and wrestling pressure against Yannis' superior striking power and physical advantages. While Bashi's 77.8% grappling advantage and proven finishing ability (1.3 sub attempts per 15 minutes) create clear paths to victory, Yannis' knockout power and reach present significant obstacles to Bashi's game plan.
The statistical analysis favors Bashi's defensive metrics and superior cardio. Our model suggests the market has correctly valued both fighters, with Bashi as a -215 favorite representing fair value given his grappling dominance and Yannis' knockout threat creating legitimate upset potential at +215.
Prediction: Bashi's proven ability to neutralize strikers power, combined with superior defensive metrics and championship-level conditioning, ultimately prevail over Pereira's explosive but potentially unsustainable early aggression. The 68-32 edge reflects genuine uncertainty in this stylistic matchup, with the winner likely emerging through either Bashi's late-round cardio advantage or Yannis' early knockout threats.