Felipe Bunes vs Rafael Estevam
UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Felipe Bunes
14-7-0
🥊 Muay Thai Specialist
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rafael Estevam
13-0-0
🥊 Wrestling Specialist
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Felipe Bunes
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Jose Johnson | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 2:04) |
| 2024-01-13 | Joshua Van | L | TKO - Punches (R2, 4:31) |
| 2022-02-11 | Jussier Formiga | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:53) |
| 2018-04-21 | Yoni Sherbatov | W | Submission - Flying Triangle Armbar (R1, 4:08) |
| 2016-05-06 | Tarciano Pereira | W | Doctor Stoppage - Cut (R1, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Rafael Estevam
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Jesus Aguilar | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 15:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Charles Johnson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 15:00) |
| 2022-09-27 | João Elias | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 2:25) |
| 2021-07-18 | Filipe Esteves | W | TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 2:19) |
| 2020-09-27 | Erick Visconde | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 15:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (38.0 vs 48.3) and Grappling Composite (47.0 vs 50.2). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Felipe Bunes Key Advantages
Heavy rear kicks to body/head with much higher striking output (4.49 vs 2.06 SLpM)
Elite submission game with 2.6 attempts per 15min vs 0.4 - tight guillotines and transitional armbars
Dangerous finishing ability with 85.7% finish rate vs 53.8% - explosive early finisher
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor takedown defense and Estevam's 6.4 TD/15min could lead to prolonged control periods
Historically fades after 7-8 minutes (5:48 avg duration) vs Estevam's 12:28 pace
📋 Likely Gameplan
Must hurt Estevam early with heavy kicks, force desperate reactions for submission opportunities
Jump on opportunistic front-chokes during scrambles, use sprawls to create submission entries
🤼 Rafael Estevam Key Advantages
Elite wrestling with 6.4 TD/15min and 36% accuracy vs Bunes' unknown takedown defense
Superior cardio with 12:28 avg duration vs 5:48 - can maintain pace for 15 minutes
Undefeated record with 2-0 UFC start vs Bunes' inconsistent 1-1 UFC record
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bunes' explosive power and high-volume striking could catch him during failed takedown attempts
Bunes' 2.6 sub attempts per 15min could create dangerous transitions during wrestling exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
March forward, shoot under kicks, complete doubles against the cage, maintain top control
Use cardio advantage to wear down Bunes, hunt late opportunities when opponent fades
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Statistical analysis reveals Estevam's wrestling dominance as the decisive factor
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🤼Wrestling Dominance
Estevam's wrestling credentials create a massive stylistic advantage in this matchup. His 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes represent a 146% advantage over Bunes' 2.6 attempts, while his 36% accuracy against Bunes' unknown takedown defense suggests high success rates. The statistical analysis shows Estevam controlling approximately 73% of hypothetical matchups through relentless pressure wrestling and superior mat control.
⏰Cardio Differential
The most decisive factor may be the significant cardio gap between these fighters. Estevam's 12:28 average fight duration versus Bunes' 5:48 reveals a 115% endurance advantage. This becomes critical in a 3-round fight where Bunes historically fades after 7-8 minutes, while Estevam maintains consistent pressure and output throughout entire fights.
⚡Early Danger Window
Bunes' path to victory exists primarily in the opening 4-6 minutes where his explosive power and submission threat remain viable. His 85.7% finish rate and 2.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes create legitimate early finish scenarios, particularly if Estevam mis-times takedown entries or gets caught in scrambles. However, this window closes rapidly as cardio becomes a factor.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market alignment with analytical model projections
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
🎯Value Opportunities
✅Market Efficiency
The betting market shows remarkable alignment with our analytical model, both projecting identical 73-27% probability splits. This suggests the market has efficiently priced in Estevam's wrestling advantages, cardio superiority, and undefeated record against Bunes' early finishing threat. No significant value opportunities exist on the main betting lines.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Bunes
Early explosive finishes when landing clean
Quick submissions during scrambles
Unlikely given cardio disadvantage
🤼Outcome Distribution - Estevam
Wrestling control for full 15 minutes
Late submissions when opponent fades
Attritional ground and pound
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Early Window - Bunes
- • First 6 minutes: Maximum power and submission threat
- • Striking volume: 118% advantage creates early opportunities
- • Submission danger: 550% more attempts in scrambles
- • Critical phase: Must capitalize before cardio becomes factor
🎯Control Phase - Estevam
- • Round 2+: Wrestling control and pace advantages
- • Cardio dominance: 115% endurance edge emerges
- • Takedown success: 146% volume advantage
- • Finish opportunities: Late submissions and ground strikes
🎯 Comprehensive Market Props
Complete market odds and prop betting analysis for Bunes vs Estevam
🕒Main Moneyline & Totals
🥇Method of Victory
⏱️Round Betting
📏Additional Props
🧑⚖️Decision Props
➕Point Spread
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
High confidence based on decisive statistical advantages
Confidence Level
High confidence due to decisive control metrics
✅Supporting Factors
- • Statistically decisive control metrics
- • +3.8 TD differential per 15min
- • 115% cardio advantage
- • Perfect record vs 1-1 UFC performance
- • Style matchup favors wrestler
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Bunes' genuine finishing danger
- • 85.7% finish rate creates early threats
- • 500% submission advantage
- • Unknown takedown defense
- • Early entry timing risks
🏁Executive Summary & Prediction
This flyweight matchup represents a classic grappler versus striker dynamic with clear statistical edges. Estevam's 146% takedown advantage (6.4 vs 2.6 per 15min) combined with his 115% cardio superiority (12:28 vs 5:48 avg) creates overwhelming control scenarios in approximately 73% of simulated outcomes.
While Bunes possesses legitimate early finishing threats with his 85.7% finish rate and 500% submission advantage, his window of opportunity closes rapidly after the 6-8 minute mark where cardio differentials become decisive. Estevam's perfect 13-0 record and proven UFC success (2-0) against Bunes' inconsistent 1-1 performance further supports the analytical model's projections.
Final Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins by unanimous decision after controlling the majority of the fight through superior wrestling, pace, and late-round opportunities as Bunes fades. The 73-27% probability split reflects both the quality of Estevam's advantages and the genuine early danger that Bunes represents.