Rinya Nakamura vs Nathan Fletcher
UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Rinya Nakamura
9-1-0
🇯🇵 Elite Wrestler
Wrestler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Nathan Fletcher
9-2-0
🇺🇸 Power Striker
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Rinya Nakamura
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Kyung Ho Kang | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Carlos Hernandez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Toshiomi Kazama | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Fernie Garcia | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 1:32) |
| 2022-11-12 | Kleydson Rodrigues | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Nathan Fletcher
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-07 | Andre Lopes | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:47) |
| 2024-02-17 | Mingyang Zhang | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-09 | Ode Osbourne | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 2:14) |
| 2023-04-08 | Jafel Filho | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:23) |
| 2022-11-19 | Matheus Nicolau | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 4:12) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (59.5 vs 62.7) and Grappling Composite (68.6 vs 42.6). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥋 Rinya Nakamura Key Advantages
Exceptional takedown accuracy (82% vs 38%) and perfect takedown defense (100% vs 50%)
Superior submission rate creates constant ground threat and finishing potential
Massive 61% advantage in grappling composite score showcases complete ground dominance
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Fletcher's superior accuracy (61% vs 52%) and reach advantage could punish entry attempts
Fletcher's 54.5% finish rate and early round power could catch Nakamura off guard
📋 Likely Gameplan
Apply relentless takedown pressure to exploit Fletcher's 50% takedown defense
Once on the ground, prioritize submission attempts over ground and pound
💥 Nathan Fletcher Key Advantages
Superior accuracy with 17% edge in precision striking and power punches
Physical reach advantage allows range control and counter-striking opportunities
High finishing percentage with 6 KO/TKO victories demonstrates knockout power
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges against Nakamura's elite wrestling and submission skills
Constant takedown threats could limit striking effectiveness and create defensive reactions
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep Nakamura at range and avoid takedown attempts
Apply early striking pressure to establish dominance before wrestling becomes factor
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥋Wrestling vs Striking Dynamics
This bantamweight clash represents the classic grappler versus striker matchup at the highest level. Nakamura brings elite wrestling credentials from Japan with an 82% takedown accuracy rate that significantly outclasses Fletcher's 38% defensive takedown accuracy. The Japanese wrestler's perfect 100% takedown defense creates a stark contrast against Fletcher's vulnerable 50% rate, suggesting control of where this fight takes place will heavily favor Nakamura's game plan.
📊Statistical Breakdown
The technical analysis reveals compelling advantages on both sides. Nakamura's 68.6 vs 42.6 grappling composite advantage represents a massive 61% edge in ground skills, while his submission rate of 1.46 attempts per 15 minutes doubles Fletcher's 0.71 rate. However, Fletcher's striking advantages are legitimate: his 61% accuracy significantly exceeds Nakamura's 52%, and his 1.5-inch reach advantage provides tactical spacing opportunities that could neutralize wrestling entries.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will be determined by three critical phases: the opening exchanges where Fletcher's power striking (54.5% finish rate) meets Nakamura's takedown pressure; the middle rounds where cardio and adaptation become crucial (62 vs 64 cardio scores suggest relatively even endurance); and the championship moments where Nakamura's wrestling advantage and submission threats could overwhelm Fletcher's defensive capabilities. Fletcher's undefeated 2-0 UFC record demonstrates his ability to perform under pressure, but facing a 4-1 veteran presents new challenges.
🔮Victory Paths
Nakamura's path to victory centers on implementing his elite wrestling game early and often. His superior takedown accuracy suggests he can overcome Fletcher's defensive wrestling, while his perfect takedown defense eliminates counter-wrestling threats. Once on the ground, his submission advantage becomes paramount with double the submission attempt rate of his opponent.
Fletcher must maximize his striking window early in each round, utilizing his reach and accuracy advantages to establish dominance before wrestling exchanges begin. His 54.5% finish rate demonstrates legitimate knockout power, but he must land significant strikes while avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges where Nakamura's skills become overwhelming.
🏁Final Prediction
While Fletcher possesses legitimate advantages in striking and early momentum, Nakamura's wrestling dominance and technical superiority create multiple pathways to victory. The 63-37 split reflects both the quality of Fletcher's striking threat and the overwhelming nature of Nakamura's grappling advantages. Expect a competitive early battle that gradually shifts toward Nakamura's wrestling as the fight progresses, with the Japanese wrestler likely securing victory through either dominant grappling position or submission in the second or third rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
Nakamura -400
Market odds closely align with our 80% model prediction. No significant value edge but fundamentally sound betting option.
Fletcher +300
Market accurately reflects Fletcher's underdog status. Limited value due to precise market pricing.
Over 2.5 Rounds
Nakamura's decision-heavy style makes longer fights more likely than market suggests.
✅Key Market Observations
- • Efficiently priced main event - Market accurately reflects statistical advantages
- • Under 2.5 rounds shows slight value - Nakamura's grappling dominance could lead to early finish
- • Submission props undervalued - 1.46 vs 0.71 submission rate not fully captured
- • Experience factor priced in - Nakamura's 4-1 UFC record vs Fletcher's 2-0 properly weighted
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥋Outcome Distribution - Nakamura
11.1% of his wins | Secondary threat weapon
33.3% of his wins | Wrestling control
55.6% of his wins | Primary finishing method
💥Outcome Distribution - Fletcher
11.1% of his wins | Rare finishing method
11.1% of his wins | Rare path to victory
No historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Early Window - Fletcher
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum striking advantage before wrestling takes over
- • Round 1: 44% of his finishes occur here (4 R1 finishes)
- • Distance control: Must utilize reach and accuracy early
- • Energy management: Avoid extended grappling exchanges
🎯Progressive Control - Nakamura
- • Round 2+: Wrestling pressure accumulates and dominates
- • Takedown success: 82% accuracy overwhelms 50% defense over time
- • Submission threat: Constant danger throughout all rounds
- • Ground control: Higher submission rate creates finish opportunities
🎯 Comprehensive Market Props
Complete market odds and prop betting analysis for Nakamura vs Fletcher
🕒Main Moneyline & Totals
🥇Method of Victory
⏱️Round Betting
📏Additional Props
🧑⚖️Decision Props
➕Point Spread
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear wrestling advantage
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite wrestling credentials (82% TD accuracy)
- • Perfect takedown defense (100%)
- • Superior submission threat (1.46 vs 0.71)
- • Massive grappling composite advantage
- • Greater UFC experience (5 vs 2 fights)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Fletcher's striking accuracy advantage
- • Reach disadvantage (-1.5")
- • Fletcher's 54.5% finish rate
- • Coming off a loss to Kyung Ho Kang
- • Fletcher's undefeated UFC momentum
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight clash represents a clear stylistic advantage for Nakamura, whose elite wrestling credentials and perfect takedown defense create overwhelming positional control opportunities. While Fletcher possesses legitimate striking advantages including superior accuracy and reach, the statistical disparity in grappling skills (68.6 vs 42.6 composite) suggests limited pathways to victory once wrestling exchanges begin.
The betting market has efficiently priced this matchup at exactly our model's projection (63-37), indicating sophisticated understanding of the underlying advantages. Fletcher's window for victory exists primarily in the early striking phases, but Nakamura's 82% takedown accuracy creates inevitable grappling exchanges where his submission skills become paramount.
Prediction: Nakamura's wrestling dominance will prove decisive as the fight progresses, leading to either dominant positional control for decision victory or submission finish in rounds 2-3. The 8/10 confidence reflects the clear technical advantages and multiple pathways to victory for the Japanese wrestler, while acknowledging Fletcher's early striking threat as the primary uncertainty factor.