Francis Marshall vs Austin Bashi
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
August 2, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Francis Marshall
8-3-0
🥊 Striker-Wrestler
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Austin Bashi
13-1-0
🤼 Chain Wrestler
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Francis Marshall
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Mairon Santos | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | Dennis Buzukja | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-12 | Isaac Dulgarian | L | TKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 4:48) |
| 2023-04-22 | William Gomis | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-03 | Marcelo Rojo | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 1:14) |
Last 5 Fights - Austin Bashi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Christian Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-03 | Dorian Ramos | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 3:15) |
| 2024-06-01 | Zac Riley | W | KO/TKO - Strikes (R1, 3:48) |
| 2023-09-30 | Askar Askar | W | Submission - Short Choke (R2, 1:48) |
| 2023-06-24 | Erik Vo | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 3:27) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (39 vs 42) and Grappling Composite (41 vs 61). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Francis Marshall Key Advantages
Superior striking output (3.46 vs 1.94 SLpM) with better accuracy (33% vs 49%)
3" height advantage and 2" reach advantage provide distance control opportunities
5 UFC fights vs 1 provides significant octagon control and pressure management
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Bashi's 8.39 takedown attempts per 15min could overwhelm Marshall's 67% TDD
Extended ground time neutralizes striking advantages and favors Bashi's grappling
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize 2" reach advantage to keep Bashi at range and control the striking exchanges
Focus on sprawling and creating separation to avoid extended grappling sequences
🚀 Austin Bashi Key Advantages
Massive takedown advantage: 8.39 vs 2.75 attempts per 15 minutes
Superior grappling skills (61 vs 41) with 3x submission threat (1.29 vs 0.42)
23 years old in athletic prime with explosive wrestling and 13-1 record
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Marshall's 78% higher striking volume could accumulate damage over time
Marshall's reach advantage makes closing distance and securing takedowns difficult
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance aggressively and chain takedown attempts to overwhelm defense
Secure takedowns and work for submissions while controlling position
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Striking Dynamics
This featherweight clash represents a fascinating striker versus wrestler matchup with clear advantages on both sides. Marshall brings substantial striking superiority with his 78% higher output (3.46 vs 1.94 SLpM) and superior accuracy metrics. His physical advantages - including 3" height and 2" reach - create natural distance control opportunities that should allow him to dictate the pace of standup exchanges.
🤼Grappling Analysis
Bashi's wrestling represents the primary upset mechanism in this matchup. His massive takedown volume advantage (8.39 vs 2.75 per 15 minutes) combined with superior grappling skills (61 vs 41 composite) creates legitimate pathways to control. The 3x submission threat differential (1.29 vs 0.42 attempts per 15 minutes) means that once on the ground, Bashi possesses finishing ability that Marshall cannot match.
⚡Experience Factor
Marshall's 400% experience advantage (5 vs 1 UFC fights) cannot be understated in this analysis. Octagon control, pressure management, and championship-level composure all favor the more experienced fighter. However, Bashi's youth (23 vs 26) and explosive athletic tools suggest that raw physical ability could overcome experience gaps, particularly in short-burst scenarios.
🎯Victory Scenarios
Marshall's path to victory involves controlling distance, utilizing his superior striking output, and maintaining defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing. His cardio advantages should become more pronounced as the fight progresses into later rounds.
Bashi must implement his wrestling early and often, using chain takedown attempts to overwhelm Marshall's 67% takedown defense. His finishing ability on the ground provides multiple pathways to victory if he can secure dominant positions.
🏁Final Prediction
While Bashi possesses the tools to secure victory through his wrestling dominance, Marshall's well-rounded advantages in striking, experience, and physical attributes give him the edge. The 58-42 split reflects both the competitiveness of this matchup and the narrow margin between victory and defeat. Expect a tactical battle where the winner emerges through either Marshall's distance control and striking accumulation or Bashi's wrestling pressure and ground control.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 40%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 18% | Market: ~20%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: ~35.7%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Market efficiently priced - Both fighters valued appropriately based on skillsets
- • Small edge on Bashi - Model suggests slightly higher win probability than market
- • Submission value - Bashi's grappling threat creates reasonable prop bet value
- • Method of victory markets - More opportunities exist in specific finish types
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marshall
37.5% of his wins | Distance control path
12.5% of his wins | Striking accumulation
50% of his wins | Opportunistic grappling
💥Outcome Distribution - Bashi
38.5% of his wins | Primary threat weapon
38.5% of his wins | Ground control path
23.1% of his wins | Minimal striking threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Bashi
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum wrestling effectiveness before fatigue
- • Rounds 1-2: Chain takedown attempts to overwhelm defense
- • Submission threat: Constant danger once on the ground
- • Energy management: Must capitalize early before Marshall's cardio edge
🎯Progressive Control - Marshall
- • Distance management: Use reach advantage to control exchanges
- • Round 3: Experience and cardio advantages become decisive
- • Defensive wrestling: Sprawling becomes easier as Bashi tires
- • Striking accumulation: Volume and accuracy build over time
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Comprehensive analysis confidence rating
✅Supporting Factors
Striking Dominance
Marshall's 78% higher striking volume (3.46 vs 1.94 SLpM) with superior accuracy creates clear path to victory
Experience Edge
400% more UFC experience (5 vs 1 fights) provides significant octagon control and pressure management
Physical Advantages
3" height and 2" reach advantages facilitate distance control and striking effectiveness
Model Convergence
Multiple analytical approaches align on Marshall's probability advantage
⚠️Risk Factors
Wrestling Pressure
Bashi's 205% higher takedown volume (8.39 vs 2.75 per 15min) could overwhelm Marshall's defense
Finishing Threat
3x submission attempt rate (1.29 vs 0.42 per 15min) creates constant finishing danger
Cage Environment
UFC Apex's smaller cage space favors wrestling pressure and chain takedown attempts
Division Volatility
Featherweight's history of upsets and the unpredictability of young prospects
📋Executive Summary
🎯 Fight Dynamics
This featherweight clash represents a classic striker versus wrestler dynamic with clear paths to victory for both fighters. Marshall's advantages lie in his superior striking volume, accuracy, reach, and proven octagon experience. His ability to control distance and pace should serve him well over three rounds.
⚡ Upset Potential
Bashi's path to victory depends entirely on his ability to implement his wrestling-heavy gameplan. His exceptional takedown rate and submission skills create legitimate upset potential, especially in the confined space of the UFC Apex facility. The 23-year-old's youth and explosiveness add dangerous unpredictability to his arsenal.
📊 Model Conclusion
The analytical model favors Marshall based on his well-rounded skillset and experience advantages, but Bashi's wrestling specialization keeps this competitive. The 58-42 split reflects both the favorite's advantages and the underdog's clear path to victory through grappling dominance. This fight will likely be decided by whether Bashi can successfully implement his takedown-heavy gameplan or if Marshall can maintain distance and control the striking exchanges.