Danny Silva vs Kevin Vallejos
Featherweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Danny Silva
"El Puma"
10-1-0
🇧🇷 Brazilian Boxer-Wrestler
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Kevin Vallejos
"El Chino"
15-1-0
🇦🇷 Argentinian Power Puncher
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Danny Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Lucas Almeida | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-16 | Josh Culibao | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-26 | Angel Pacheco | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-23 | Alex Valentino Arteaga | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:13) |
| 2022-12-09 | Canaan Kawaihae | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Kevin Vallejos
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Seung Woo Choi | W | KO/TKO - Overhand Right & Ground Punches (R1, 3:09) |
| 2024-03-02 | Gonzalo Contreras | W | TKO - Overhand Right (R2, 4:23) |
| 2023-12-22 | Maximiliano Perez | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 1:30) |
| 2023-09-05 | Jean Silva | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Eduardo Garagorri | W | TKO - Punches (R2, 3:15) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (53.8 vs 53.9) and Grappling Composite (46.1 vs 16.8). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Danny Silva Key Advantages
2.33 takedowns per 15 minutes vs 0.00 - massive wrestling pressure advantage
Superior cardio score (67.6 vs 36.8) enables sustained pressure and volume
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Vallejos' explosive power could end the fight early if Silva gets careless during wrestling entries
Vallejos' southpaw stance creates awkward angles that could complicate Silva's takedown attempts
📋 Likely Gameplan
Constant takedown pressure to break down Vallejos' will and exploit his lack of grappling threat
Use superior cardio to maintain high pace and accumulate control time across three rounds
💥 Kevin Vallejos Key Advantages
11 KO/TKO victories with devastating one-punch power throughout fights
7 first-round finishes and 1 second-round finish create immediate danger
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged ground exchanges favor Silva's superior wrestling and submission game
Silva's superior cardio becomes decisive factor if fight reaches championship rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Hunt for early knockout with explosive power before Silva's wrestling takes over
Maintain distance and sprawl aggressively to keep fight standing and in striking range
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction based on comprehensive statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Lightweight Division Dynamics
This lightweight bout showcases the classic grappler vs striker paradigm that defines many compelling matchups in the division. Silva enters as the experienced wrestler with proven UFC-level competition experience, bringing a methodical pressure game built around takedown threats and superior conditioning. His 4-fight win streak demonstrates consistency and the ability to implement game plans effectively across different opponent styles.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a stark contrast in fighting approaches. Silva's 174.4% grappling advantage stems from his elite takedown rate (2.33 per 15 minutes vs 0.00) and submission threat (0.33 attempts per 15 minutes). However, Vallejos counters with explosive finishing power, boasting an 86.7% finish rate with 11 KO/TKO victories. The Argentine's southpaw stance and early-round aggression (5 first-round, 6 second-round finishes) create immediate danger that Silva must navigate.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the opening exchanges where Vallejos' explosive power and southpaw angles pose maximum danger; the grappling transitions where Silva's takedown pressure meets Vallejos' defensive wrestling; and the later rounds where Silva's superior cardio conditioning (67.6 vs 36.8) becomes increasingly decisive. Silva's ability to survive early storms and implement his wrestling game will be paramount.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Silva's path to victory centers on weathering Vallejos' early aggression and implementing sustained wrestling pressure. His superior cardio allows him to maintain a high pace throughout three rounds, while his takedown threat forces Vallejos to expend energy on defensive wrestling. Silva's submission skills provide a constant finishing threat once the fight hits the ground.
Vallejos must leverage his explosive power early and often, targeting the opening 10 minutes when his speed and power advantages are maximized. His southpaw stance creates awkward angles for Silva's entries, while his 11 KO/TKO victories demonstrate genuine one-punch knockout power. The key for Vallejos is avoiding extended grappling exchanges where Silva's advantages compound rapidly.
🏁Final Prediction
While Vallejos possesses legitimate knockout power that could change the fight instantly, Silva's overwhelming statistical advantages in wrestling, cardio, and fight management make him a heavy favorite. The 78-22 probability reflects both Silva's clear technical superiority and the ever-present danger of Vallejos' explosive finishing ability. Expect Silva to implement a pressure-based game plan designed to neutralize Vallejos' power through consistent takedown threats and volume control over three rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Market vs Model
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
Silva +330
Market odds closely align with our 23% model prediction. No significant value edge but fundamentally sound betting option.
Vallejos -430
Market accurately reflects Vallejos's heavy favorite status. Limited value due to precise market pricing.
Over 2.5 Rounds
Silva's decision-heavy style makes longer fights more likely than market suggests.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Silva Moneyline (+330): -0.3% edge - Neutral value, market accurately priced
- • Vallejos Moneyline (-430): -4.1% edge - Avoid due to market overvaluing Vallejos
- • Over 2.5 Rounds (+125): +11.2% edge - Good value based on Silva's decision-heavy style
- • Vallejos by KO/TKO (-115): Potential value given Vallejos's 86.7% finish rate
- • Fight Goes Distance (+135): Market undervaluing decision probability
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Silva
50% of his wins | Cardio advantage pathway
0.33 attempts/15min | Wrestling threat
50% of his wins | Ground strikes or accumulated damage
💥Outcome Distribution - Vallejos
73% of his wins | Early round power threat
13% of his wins | Unlikely vs Silva's cardio
No historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
⚡Window of Opportunity - Vallejos
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum power and speed before Silva pressure builds
- • Early Round 2: Secondary window with 1 historical finish in this round
- • Southpaw angles: Must exploit stance advantage for clean shots
- • Takedown scrambles: Counter opportunities during Silva's entries
🎯Progressive Control - Silva
- • Round 2+: Cardio advantage becomes increasingly apparent
- • Accumulation: Wrestling pressure breaks down Vallejos' resistance
- • Control time: Consistent ground control accumulates score
- • Volume striking: Higher output rate wears down opponent
🎯 Comprehensive Market Props
Complete market odds and prop betting analysis for Silva vs Vallejos
🕒Main Moneyline & Totals
🥇Method of Victory
⏱️Round Betting
📏Additional Props
🧑⚖️Decision Props
➕Point Spread
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Massive wrestling advantage (2.33 vs 0.00 TD/15min)
- • Superior cardio conditioning (+83.9%)
- • Grappling composite dominance (+174.4%)
- • Proven ability vs. UFC-level competition
- • No submission threat from Vallejos
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Vallejos' explosive knockout power
- • High early finish rate (86.7%)
- • Southpaw stance complications
- • First UFC fight pressure for Silva
- • Lightweight division unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight bout represents a compelling contrast between Silva's methodical wrestling-based approach and Vallejos' explosive finishing ability. Silva's statistical advantages are overwhelming in the grappling department (2.33 vs 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio conditioning (67.6 vs 36.8), creating multiple clear pathways to victory through control, volume, and potential submissions.
However, Vallejos' legitimate knockout threat cannot be dismissed. His 86.7% finish rate and 11 KO/TKO victories demonstrate genuine one-punch power that could end the fight at any moment. The southpaw stance adds another layer of complexity that could complicate Silva's takedown entries and create opportunities for counter strikes.
Prediction: Silva's overwhelming advantages in wrestling, cardio, and UFC experience should prove decisive over three rounds. While Vallejos possesses the power to change the fight instantly, Silva's ability to pressure, control, and accumulate damage through volume and wrestling dominance makes him a heavy favorite. The 78-22 probability reflects both Silva's clear technical advantages and the ever-present danger of Vallejos' knockout power in the early exchanges.