Chris Duncan vs Mateusz Rebecki
UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
13-2-0
💪 Rising Contender
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Mateusz Rebecki
"ReBeast"
20-2-0
🔥 Polish Powerhouse
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Chris Duncan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Jordan Vucenic | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 3:42) |
| 2024-09-28 | Bolaji Oki | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 3:44) |
| 2024-02-24 | Manuel Torres | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 1:46) |
| 2023-07-22 | Yanal Ashmouz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Omar Morales | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Mateusz Rebecki
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Myktybek Orolbai | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Diego Ferreira | L | TKO - Ground & Pound (R3, 4:51) |
| 2023-11-11 | Roosevelt Roberts | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:08) |
| 2023-06-24 | Loik Radzhabov | W | TKO - Overhand Left (R2, 2:36) |
| 2023-01-14 | Nick Fiore | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (10.0 vs 11.0) and Grappling Composite (12.9 vs 16.6). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Chris Duncan Key Advantages
71.5" reach vs 66" allows Duncan to control distance and land strikes while staying outside Rebecki's range
Three submission victories (23% of wins) including recent guillotine chokes show Duncan's ability to capitalize on scrambles and transitions
Superior height (5'10" vs 5'7") and reach provide natural advantages in controlling range
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor takedown defense (38%) makes Duncan vulnerable to Rebecki's superior wrestling
Lower striking defense (48% vs 55%) leaves Duncan exposed in prolonged striking exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep fight at distance, avoid clinch situations and takedown attempts
Look for guillotine opportunities during Rebecki's takedown attempts and transitions
🚀 Mateusz Rebecki Key Advantages
Massive grappling advantage (16.6 vs 12.9 composite) with 75% takedown accuracy vs 44%
ELO advantage (1575 vs 1475) reflects superior overall performance and competition level
Better striking defense (55% vs 48%) and technical skills provide edge in exchanges
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Significant reach disadvantage makes it difficult to initiate exchanges without eating shots
Duncan's guillotine threat in transitions could catch Rebecki off-guard during takedown attempts
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance quickly, initiate clinch work, and utilize superior takedown accuracy
Use grappling advantage to dictate pace and look for submission opportunities or ground and pound
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Lightweight Division Dynamics
This lightweight bout represents a classic striker vs grappler matchup that has defined many memorable fights in the 155lb division. Duncan brings the physical advantages with his 5.5" reach differential and recent submission victories, demonstrating his ability to find finishes from dangerous positions. His guillotine choke threat creates legitimate danger during Rebecki's takedown attempts, providing a clear path to victory even when fighting off his back.
🎯Statistical Breakdown
The numbers paint a clear picture of Rebecki's advantages. His 100-point ELO superiority (1575 vs 1475) reflects consistent performance against higher-level competition. The grappling differential is even more pronounced - Rebecki's 75% takedown accuracy versus Duncan's 38% takedown defense creates a substantial mismatch on paper. However, Duncan's 28.7% superior grappling composite and submission threat from bottom position provide compelling counter-narratives to the statistical disadvantage.
⚡Critical Battle Areas
The fight will be determined in three key phases: the initial striking exchanges where Duncan's reach advantage and Rebecki's pressure create contrasting dynamics; the wrestling transitions where Rebecki's takedown accuracy meets Duncan's submission threat; and the later rounds where both fighters' conditioning and adaptability will be tested. Duncan's recent guillotine finishes suggest he's found ways to turn defensive positions into offensive opportunities, while Rebecki's superior striking defense (55% vs 48%) indicates he can navigate Duncan's reach advantage effectively.
🔮Path to Victory Analysis
Duncan's victory scenario involves effectively utilizing his reach advantage early, staying disciplined with distance management, and capitalizing on submission opportunities when takedowns occur. His recent guillotine victories show he's comfortable fighting off his back and can turn scrambles into finishing opportunities. The key is avoiding extended ground control situations where Rebecki's superior grappling credentials become overwhelming.
Rebecki's path centers on his ability to close distance consistently, implement his takedown game, and control the pace through superior wrestling. His 70% greater takedown rate (3.8 vs 4.1 per 15 minutes) combined with better striking defense creates multiple avenues to victory. The challenge lies in navigating Duncan's reach disadvantage while avoiding dangerous submission attempts during transitions. Rebecki's higher ELO rating and technical scores suggest he has the tools to solve these problems systematically.
🏁Final Assessment
While Duncan possesses legitimate upset potential through his physical advantages and submission threat, Rebecki's superior across-the-board technical metrics and ELO rating provide the foundation for favoritism. The 68-32 probability split reflects both the statistical advantages and the inherent uncertainty in any fighter with Duncan's submission prowess and reach differential. Expect a technically engaging fight where the winner emerges through either Rebecki's systematic pressure and control or Duncan's ability to capitalize on scrambles and maintain distance effectively.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
Duncan +170
Market odds closely align with our 32% model prediction. No significant value edge but fundamentally sound betting option.
Rebecki -200
Market accurately reflects Rebecki's favorite status. Limited value due to precise market pricing.
Under 1.5 Rounds
Both fighters have high finish rates, making early stoppage more likely than market suggests.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Duncan Moneyline (+170): -5.0% edge - Avoid due to market overvaluing Duncan's chances
- • Rebecki Moneyline (-200): +1.3% edge - Minimal value but fundamentally sound
- • Under 1.5 Rounds (+131): +5.5% edge - Good value based on both fighters' high finish rates
- • Rebecki by KO/TKO (+175): Potential value given Rebecki's 80% finish rate
- • Fight Goes Distance (+170): Market overvaluing decision probability
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🔥Outcome Distribution - Duncan
23% of his wins | Guillotine choke primary threat
23% of his wins | Using reach advantage effectively
54% of his wins | Striking power threat
🚀Outcome Distribution - Rebecki
20% of his wins | Grappling control and volume
45% of his wins | Pressure and ground strikes
35% of his wins | Superior grappling credentials
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Duncan
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum reach advantage effectiveness
- • Transition moments: Guillotine choke opportunities during takedown attempts
- • Distance control: Must maintain range and avoid extended clinch work
- • Counter-wrestling: Use submission threat to deter takedown attempts
🎯Progressive Dominance - Rebecki
- • Round 2+: Takedown pressure accumulates and overwhelms defense
- • Grappling exchanges: Superior technique and conditioning advantages emerge
- • Volume accumulation: Consistent striking and takedown attempts
- • Late finish: Ground and pound or submission in final round
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear statistical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Rebecki's 100-point ELO advantage
- • Superior grappling credentials (16.6 vs 12.9)
- • Higher takedown accuracy (75% vs 44%)
- • Better striking defense (55% vs 48%)
- • Statistical model consistency
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Duncan's significant reach advantage (5.5")
- • Guillotine choke submission threat
- • Rebecki's reach disadvantage in striking
- • Lightweight division unpredictability
- • Duncan's recent submission victories
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight clash between Duncan and Rebecki presents a compelling stylistic matchup with clear statistical indicators favoring the Polish fighter. Rebecki's 100-point ELO superiority (1575 vs 1475) reflects consistent performance against higher-level opposition, while his grappling dominance (16.6 vs 12.9 composite score) and superior takedown accuracy (75% vs 44%) create multiple pathways to victory through ground control and submission threats.
However, Duncan's physical advantages cannot be dismissed. His 5.5" reach differential in the lightweight division is substantial and provides legitimate opportunities to control distance and dictate the pace of exchanges. Most significantly, his recent guillotine choke victories demonstrate an evolving submission game that creates danger even from defensive positions. This threat becomes particularly relevant given Rebecki's aggressive takedown approach.
Prediction: The statistical model strongly favors Rebecki (68% win probability) based on superior across-the-board metrics and proven grappling credentials. The 7/10 confidence rating reflects both the strength of the statistical case and acknowledgment of Duncan's legitimate upset potential through reach advantages and submission opportunities. Expect Rebecki to implement pressure-heavy tactics to close distance, while Duncan seeks to maintain range and capitalize on scramble situations. The winner likely emerges through either Rebecki's systematic grappling control or Duncan's ability to exploit transitions with his developing submission arsenal.
🎯 Comprehensive Market Props
Complete market odds and prop betting analysis for Duncan vs Rebecki