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Men's Middleweight Bout • 3 Rounds

Azamat Bekoev vs Torrez Finney

UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Favorite
-233
70% Win Probability
Underdog
+233
30% Win Probability

Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles

Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.

Azamat Bekoev
FAV

Azamat Bekoev

20-3-0

🔥 9 wins

Age:29
Height:6'0"
Reach:72"
Style:Southpaw Striker

Performance Metrics

Place of Birth
Russia
Total UFC
2
Win Rate
87%
Finish Rate
80%
Victory Methods
Torrez Finney
11-0

Torrez Finney

11-0-0

🔥 11 wins

Age:26
Height:5'8"
Reach:75.5"
Style:Wrestler

Performance Metrics

Place of Birth
United States
Total UFC
1
Win Rate
100%
Finish Rate
72.7%
Victory Methods

Last 5 Fights - Azamat Bekoev

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-05-03Ryan LoderWTKO - Right Hook to Ground Punches (R1, 2:44)
2025-01-18Zach ReeseWTKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 3:04)
2024-06-22Chauncey FoxworthWKO/TKO - Right Hook (R2, 4:32)
2023-12-15Lucas FernandoWDecision - Unanimous (5, 5:00)
2023-06-16Dylan BudkaWDecision - Split (5, 5:00)

Last 5 Fights - Torrez Finney

DateOpponentResultMethod
2025-04-05Robert ValentinWDecision - Split (3, 5:00)
2024-10-01Abdellah Er-RamyWTKO - Ground & Pound (R1, 4:10)
2024-08-20Cam RowstonWDecision - Unanimous (3, 5:00)
2024-05-04Tyson JeffriesWKO/TKO (R1, 1:33)
2023-10-10Yuri PanferovWSubmission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 2:43)

Technical Analysis

Technical Score

60/10072/100
Azamat
Torrez
Torrez advantage: 9.1%

Cardio Score

71/10042/100
Azamat
Torrez
Azamat advantage: 25.7%

Overall Rating

65.5/10057/100
Azamat
Torrez
Azamat advantage: 6.9%
📊 Technical Score

Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (61 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (59 vs 87). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.

💪 Cardio Score

Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.

🎯 Overall Rating

Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.

Striking Composite

61/10058/100
Azamat
Torrez
Azamat advantage: 2.5%

Grappling Composite

59/10087/100
Azamat
Torrez
Torrez advantage: 19.2%
🥊 Striking Composite

Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.

🤼 Grappling Composite

Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.

Technical Radar Comparison

Metrics Legend
SLpM: Strikes/Min
StrAcc: Strike Accuracy
StrDef: Strike Defense
TD15: Takedowns/15min
TDAcc: TD Accuracy
TDDef: TD Defense
SubPer15: Subs/15min
Azamat Bekoev
VS
Torrez Finney

Detailed Statistical Comparison

Strikes Landed/Min
Advantage:Azamat (+328.8%)
7.59per min1.77per min
Azamat
Difference: 5.82per min
Striking Accuracy
Advantage:Torrez (+13.1%)
61%69%
Azamat
Torrez
Difference: 8.00%
Striking Defense
Advantage:Torrez (+2.1%)
47%48%
Azamat
Torrez
Difference: 1.00%
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Advantage:Azamat (+157.5%)
4.48per min1.74per min
Azamat
Torrez
Difference: 2.74per min
Takedowns/15min
Advantage:Torrez (+259.5%)
2.59per 15min9.31per 15min
Torrez
Difference: 6.72per 15min
Takedown Accuracy
Advantage:Torrez (+81.8%)
33%60%
Azamat
Torrez
Difference: 27.00%
Takedown Defense
Advantage:Azamat (+Infinity%)
100%0%
Azamat
Difference: 100.00%
Submissions/15min
Advantage:Torrez (+Infinity%)
0per 15min1.07per 15min
Torrez
Difference: 1.07per 15min

🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown

🏆 Azamat Bekoev Key Advantages

🥊Striking Volume
+329% advantage

Massive striking output advantage with 7.59 vs 1.77 strikes per minute. Balanced finishing ability with 8 KO/TKO and 8 submission wins.

🛡️Takedown Defense
Perfect 100%

Elite takedown defense stops wrestling attempts completely

🎯Experience Edge
+3 years

Age 29 with 9-fight win streak shows peak performance and maturity

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🤼Extended Grappling

Finney's superior grappling and submission skills could dominate ground exchanges

📏Reach Disadvantage

3.5" reach disadvantage could limit ability to land clean strikes

📋 Likely Gameplan

High-Volume Striking

Utilize superior striking output to overwhelm and control distance

🛡️Defensive Wrestling

Use elite takedown defense to keep fight standing and in striking range

🚀 Torrez Finney Key Advantages

🤼Grappling Dominance
+259% volume

Massive takedown advantage with 9.31 vs 2.59 attempts per 15 minutes. Strong knockout power with 7 KO/TKO wins.

🎯Submission Threat
Elite BJJ

1.07 submission attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.00 - constant finish threat

📏Reach Advantage
+3.5" reach

Superior reach with better striking accuracy can control distance

⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios

🥊Striking Volume War

Bekoev's massive striking output advantage could overwhelm in extended standup

🛡️Elite Takedown Defense

Bekoev's perfect 100% TDD could neutralize primary wrestling advantage

📋 Likely Gameplan

🎯Pressure Wrestling

Chain wrestling attempts to overcome TDD and get fight to the ground

🔒Submission Hunting

Once on ground, look for submission opportunities with superior grappling

🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis

Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis

70%
Azamat Bekoev Win Probability
Favorite due to elite takedown defense and striking volume
30%
Torrez Finney Win Probability
Strong chance with superior grappling and submission skills

📊Detailed Analysis Summary

🎭Striker vs Wrestler Dynamic

This middleweight clash represents a classic striker versus wrestler matchup with clear stylistic contrasts. Bekoev brings devastating striking volume with 7.59 strikes per minute compared to Finney's modest 1.77, creating a massive 329% advantage in offensive output. However, Finney counters with elite grappling credentials, averaging 9.31 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Bekoev's 2.59, along with a dangerous submission threat of 1.07 attempts per 15 minutes where Bekoev has none recorded.

🔑Key Factors Analysis

Bekoev's perfect 100% takedown defense creates the most compelling narrative for his victory path. If he can neutralize Finney's wrestling attempts, his massive striking advantage becomes overwhelming. The 3.5" reach disadvantage is concerning, but his volume-based approach could overcome precision. Finney's path to victory runs through persistent wrestling pressure, hoping to wear down that elite takedown defense through sheer volume and chain wrestling attempts. His 60% takedown accuracy versus 33% suggests better efficiency when attempts land.

⚖️Statistical Breakdown

The numbers reveal intriguing contrasts: Finney's superior striking accuracy (69% vs 61%) suggests better precision despite lower volume, while both fighters show similar striking defense (48% vs 47%). The grappling metrics heavily favor Finney with an 87 vs 59 composite score, but this advantage only matters if he can overcome Bekoev's defensive wrestling. Age and experience factors slightly favor the 29-year-old Bekoev over 26-year-old Finney, though both are in their athletic primes.

🎯Victory Scenarios

Bekoev's most likely victory comes through maintaining distance, utilizing his striking volume to accumulate damage while preventing takedowns. His recent finishes against Ryan Loder and Zach Reese show devastating power when given space to work. Finney's path requires early takedown success before his cardio score (42 vs 71) becomes a liability in extended exchanges. His submission threat from recent performances against Yuri Panferov and Abdellah Er-Ramy demonstrates finishing ability when the fight hits the ground.

🏁Final Assessment

The 70-30 split reflects the difficulty Finney faces in overcoming elite takedown defense while dealing with overwhelming striking pressure. While his grappling skills are superior, the stylistic matchup favors the striker who can neutralize wrestling attempts. Bekoev's recent form, perfect takedown defense, and massive volume advantage create multiple paths to victory. However, Finney's finishing ability and undefeated record keep this from being a complete mismatch. This fight likely comes down to whether Finney can find early takedowns before his cardio limitations and Bekoev's striking volume become decisive factors.

💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market

Detailed value assessment in the betting market

📊Market Odds

Azamat Bekoev-233
Implied Probability: 70.0%
Torrez Finney+233
Implied Probability: 30.0%
Market Props
Over 2.5 rounds:+110 (47.6%)
Under 2.5 rounds:-140 (58.3%)
Goes the distance:+135 (42.6%)
Doesn't go distance:-165 (62.3%)

🤖Analytical Model

Azamat Bekoev-233
Model Probability: 70%
Torrez Finney+233
Model Probability: 30%
Model Props
Over 2.5 rounds:+125 (44.4%)
Under 2.5 rounds:-155 (60.8%)
Goes the distance:+150 (40.0%)
Doesn't go distance:-180 (64.3%)

💎Value Opportunities

⭐⭐
GOOD VALUE
Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)

Model: 60.8% | Market: 47.6%

MODEL EDGE:
+13.2%
FAIR VALUE
Bekoev Moneyline (-233)

Model: 70% | Market: 70%

ALIGNED:
0%
SLIGHT VALUE
Bekoev by KO/TKO (+180)

Model: 45% | Market: ~35.7%

PROBABILITY:
45%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
  • Undervalues early finish probability - Both fighters' recent form suggests quick resolution
  • Perfect line alignment - Market accurately prices main event moneylines
  • Round props offer value - Under 2.5 rounds provides best betting opportunity
  • Method betting underpriced - Bekoev's KO power not fully valued by market

🎯 Final Confidence Assessment

Confidence level and uncertainty factors

8/10

Confidence Level

High confidence due to clear stylistic advantages

Supporting Factors

  • • Perfect 100% takedown defense
  • • Massive 329% striking volume advantage
  • • Superior cardio and experience
  • • Recent devastating finishes
  • • Clear stylistic matchup advantage

⚠️Risk Factors

  • • Finney's reach advantage (3.5")
  • • Superior grappling credentials
  • • Undefeated record and confidence
  • • Submission threat if grounded
  • • MMA's inherent unpredictability

🏁Executive Summary

This middleweight clash presents a clear stylistic advantage for Bekoev, whose perfect takedown defense directly counters Finney's primary weapon while his massive striking volume creates overwhelming offensive pressure. The 329% advantage in striking output combined with superior cardio and recent finishing form makes Bekoev a strong favorite despite Finney's impressive undefeated record and submission skills.

The betting market accurately prices this matchup, with our model aligning perfectly at 70-30 odds. However, prop betting offers value, particularly the Under 2.5 rounds, as both fighters' recent form suggests early resolution - either through Bekoev's striking power or Finney's submission threat if he manages early takedowns.

Final Prediction: Bekoev's defensive wrestling and striking volume should prove too much for Finney to overcome. While the undefeated prospect possesses the skills to win if he can implement his grappling game early, the stylistic matchup strongly favors the experienced striker with elite takedown defense. Expect Bekoev to control distance, accumulate damage, and potentially finish via strikes in the first two rounds.

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