Rodolfo Vieira vs Tresean Gore
Middleweight • UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
Saturday, August 2, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Rodolfo Vieira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-15 | Andre Petroski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Armen Petrosyan | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R1, 4:48) |
| 2023-04-29 | Cody Brundage | W | Submission - Arm Triangle Choke (R2, 1:28) |
| 2022-06-25 | Chris Curtis | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-07-17 | Dustin Stoltzfus | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 1:54) |
Last 5 Fights - Tresean Gore
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Marco Tulio | L | TKO - Straight Right (R2, 3:16) |
| 2024-11-09 | Antonio Trócoli | W | Submission - Standing Guillotine Choke (R1, 1:23) |
| 2022-10-29 | Josh Fremd | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R2, 0:49) |
| 2022-07-09 | Cody Brundage | L | TKO - Overhand Right to Ground Strikes (R1, 3:50) |
| 2022-02-05 | Bryan Battle | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (51.4 vs 33.3) and Grappling Composite (56.8 vs 61.3). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Rodolfo Vieira Key Advantages
Elite takedown defense and heavy top pressure. Perfect defensive wrestling record creates scramble opportunities.
Comprehensive submission arsenal with 9 career submission wins. Proven finishing ability from dominant positions with arm triangles and rear naked chokes.
Superior striking accuracy (56% vs 47%) and better defensive metrics create opportunities for grappling entries.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Gore's 2-inch reach advantage could limit entry opportunities and force uncomfortable distance management.
Gore's boxing power and recent knockout ability could catch Vieira during grappling entries or standup exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance methodically, use striking to set up clinch entries and work for takedowns or trips.
Focus on achieving dominant positions and hunting for arm triangles or back takes for submission finishes.
🚀 Tresean Gore Key Advantages
Proven knockout power with straight rights and combinations. Recent finishes show dangerous striking ability.
Reach advantage and prime age (30 vs 35) provide physical edge for maintaining distance and output.
Strong submission game with 3 career submission wins, primarily guillotine chokes. Dangerous in scrambles and defensive situations.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor striking defense (40% vs 49%) and high absorption rate (8.16 vs 4.40) create vulnerability to volume.
Bottom position against elite BJJ specialist creates high submission danger and positional disadvantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to keep Vieira at boxing range, punish entry attempts with straight punches.
Look for guillotine opportunities in scrambles, use defensive grappling to create separation back to feet.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis and betting information
🎯Method of Victory Breakdown
Vieira (68% total)
Gore (32% total)
📊Executive Summary
🏆Statistical Analysis
This middleweight clash presents a compelling grappler vs striker dynamic with clear statistical advantages favoring Vieira. The Brazilian's superior grappling credentials, evidenced by his perfect 100% takedown defense and comprehensive submission arsenal (9 career submission wins), create multiple pathways to victory against Gore's defensive vulnerabilities. Vieira's 19% striking accuracy advantage (56% vs 47%) and significantly better defensive metrics (4.40 vs 8.16 strikes absorbed per minute) suggest he can outclass Gore in the technical aspects while setting up his preferred grappling exchanges.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by Gore's ability to utilize his 2-inch reach advantage and boxing power to keep Vieira at distance versus the Brazilian's pressure and clinch work to create grappling opportunities. Gore's recent submission victories show improved guillotine skills, but these pale in comparison to Vieira's comprehensive BJJ game and arm triangle specialization. The statistical gap in defensive striking metrics (Gore absorbs nearly double the strikes per minute) creates significant opportunities for Vieira to build momentum.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Vieira's path to victory runs through his ability to close distance safely and establish his superior grappling game. His 45% submission probability reflects both his technical skill set and Gore's defensive weaknesses. The Brazilian's 100% finish rate in victories suggests that when he executes his game plan effectively, he rarely needs the scorecards. Gore's 17% knockout probability acknowledges his genuine power threat, particularly his recent straight right knockout, but the statistical evidence suggests this window will be narrow against Vieira's improved striking defense and pressure.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Identifying value opportunities through statistical model discrepancies with market pricing
⭐Value Opportunities
Vieira -222
Market odds align well with our 68% model prediction. No significant value edge but fundamentally sound betting option.
Gore +187
Market accurately reflects Gore's underdog status. Limited value due to precise market pricing.
🎯Key Market Discrepancies
Under 1.5 Rounds (+115)
Market line suggests 46.5% probability. Our model shows 55% likelihood of early finish based on both fighters' high finish rates.
Vieira by Submission (+130)
Market line suggests 43.5% probability. Our model shows 45% submission probability for Vieira, offering slight value.
Fight Goes Distance (+175)
Market line suggests 36.4% probability. Our model shows 25% likelihood, suggesting this prop is overvalued.
Gore by KO/TKO (+600)
Market line suggests 14.3% probability. Our model shows 12% KO/TKO probability for Gore, offering slight value.
🎲 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100-fight simulation based on statistical data and historical performance patterns
🔄100-Fight Simulation Results
Vieira Victories (68 of 100)
Gore Victories (32 of 100)
⏱️Fight Timeline Analysis (Round by Round)
🥊Round 1 (0:00 - 5:00)
Likely Scenarios:
- • Gore utilizes reach advantage early
- • Vieira pressures for clinch opportunities
- • First grappling exchanges occur
- • 23% chance of early finish
⚔️Round 2 (5:00 - 10:00)
Likely Scenarios:
- • Vieira's pressure begins to tell
- • More sustained grappling exchanges
- • Gore's power remains dangerous
- • 28% chance of finish this round
🏁Round 3 (10:00 - 15:00)
Likely Scenarios:
- • Vieira's cardio advantage emerges
- • Gore's power output may decline
- • Submission attempts increase
- • 17% chance of finish, 32% go to decision
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Comprehensive evaluation of prediction reliability and supporting evidence
High Confidence Rating
✅Supporting Factors
Statistical Dominance
Vieira leads in 6 of 8 key statistical categories including crucial defensive metrics (100% TDD vs 83%, 4.40 vs 8.16 strikes absorbed/min)
Historical Performance
Both fighters have 100% finish rates in victories, supporting under 2.5 rounds prediction. Vieira's recent submission wins show consistent execution.
Matchup Dynamics
Clear grappler vs striker dynamic with Vieira's superior technical skills creating multiple pathways to victory against Gore's defensive weaknesses.
Market Alignment
Betting market odds (-222/+187) closely align with model predictions, suggesting accurate assessment of fighter capabilities.
⚠️Risk Factors
Gore's Power Threat
Recent knockout power and reach advantage provide legitimate knockout opportunities, particularly during Vieira's entries or in scrambles.
Vieira's Recent Loss
Decision loss to Petroski in February 2025 raises questions about current form and ability to execute game plan consistently.
Age Factor
Vieira's 5-year age advantage (35 vs 30) could impact cardio and recovery, particularly in extended grappling exchanges.
Stylistic Uncertainty
Gore's improved guillotine game and defensive wrestling could neutralize some of Vieira's grappling advantages in scrambles.
📋Executive Summary
This middleweight matchup presents a compelling strategic battle between proven grappling excellence and dangerous striking power. Our analysis yields a 68% probability for Vieira victory, supported by comprehensive statistical advantages and favorable matchup dynamics.
Key Prediction Drivers: Vieira's perfect takedown defense (100% vs 83%), superior striking accuracy (+19%), and significantly better defensive metrics create multiple pathways to victory. His comprehensive submission arsenal, evidenced by 9 career submission wins and recent arm triangle finishes, directly targets Gore's defensive vulnerabilities.
Primary Risk Assessment: Gore's 2-inch reach advantage and recent knockout power provide legitimate finishing opportunities, particularly during Vieira's entries. However, Gore's poor defensive striking metrics (8.16 vs 4.40 strikes absorbed/min) and 83% takedown defense suggest limited ability to prevent Vieira's preferred scenarios.
Betting Recommendation: While main event odds offer fair value, the Under 2.5 rounds (-134) presents significant value given both fighters' 100% finish rates and our 68% early finish probability.Vieira by submission props should also provide excellent value if available.
🎯 Comprehensive Market Props
Complete market odds and prop betting analysis for Vieira vs Gore