Amir Albazi vs Tatsuro Taira
UFC Fight Night: Albazi vs Taira
Saturday, August 2, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Amir Albazi
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | Brandon Moreno | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-03 | Kai Kara-France | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-17 | Alessandro Costa | W | TKO - Uppercut to Ground Punches (R3, 2:13) |
| 2022-08-20 | Francisco Figueiredo | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:34) |
| 2021-01-23 | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Tatsuro Taira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-12 | Brandon Royval | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-15 | Alex Perez | W | TKO - Knee Injury from Takedown (R2, 2:59) |
| 2023-12-09 | Carlos Hernandez | W | TKO - Left Hook to Ground Strikes (R2, 0:55) |
| 2023-07-08 | Edgar Cháirez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-04 | Jesus Aguilar | W | Submission - Triangle Armbar (R1, 4:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (25 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (25 vs 75). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Both fighters show equal cardio metrics despite different fight styles.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Shows Taira's significant technical edge while both fighters maintain similar conditioning levels.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Taira shows superior offensive accuracy while Albazi maintains better defensive metrics.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Both fighters show similar grappling credentials with Taira having higher offensive output.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Amir Albazi Key Advantages
Superior 50% takedown defense vs 45% creates excellent scrambling opportunities
Elite 62% striking defense vs 47% - excellent head movement and counter-striking
31 years old vs 25 - seasoned veteran with deep championship experience
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Taira's 2-inch reach advantage and superior striking accuracy could keep Albazi at bay
71% lower striking accuracy (35% vs 60%) could lead to being outlanded on volume
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior striking defense to avoid damage and counter with heavy shots
Force scrambles from takedown attempts and look for submission opportunities
🚀 Tatsuro Taira Key Advantages
Elite 60% striking accuracy vs 35% - exceptional precision and timing
Nearly double takedown rate (2.73 vs 1.39) and triple submission attempts (1.64 vs 0.52)
Superior height and reach advantage combined with youth and athleticism
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Weaker striking defense (47% vs 62%) makes him vulnerable to counter-strikes
Shorter fights could hurt him if Albazi can weather early pressure and force late rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior accuracy to land clean shots and build early leads on scorecards
Pressure with takedowns and hunt for back control to finish via rear naked choke
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Stylistic Matchup
This flyweight showdown presents a fascinating contrast between proven veteran craftiness and emerging elite-level skill. Albazi represents the experienced grinder who has weathered numerous storms against top-tier competition, while Taira embodies the young, technically superior athlete entering his prime years. The stylistic dynamics favor Taira's more complete skill set, particularly his striking accuracy advantage of 71% (60% vs 35%) and superior grappling activity, including nearly double the takedown rate and triple the submission attempts.
📈Statistical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Taira's comprehensive technical advantages across multiple domains. His 60% striking accuracy compared to Albazi's 35% represents a massive 71% differential that could prove decisive in volume exchanges. Additionally, Taira's superior grappling metrics (2.73 vs 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.64 vs 0.52 submission attempts) suggest he can dictate the pace and location of engagements. However, Albazi's superior defensive credentials (62% vs 47% striking defense, 50% vs 45% takedown defense) create legitimate pathways to competitive rounds.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome will likely be determined in three critical phases: the opening exchanges where Taira's physical advantages (2-inch reach, 2-inch height) and superior accuracy create early scoring opportunities; the grappling transitions where Taira's higher takedown rate meets Albazi's proven scrambling ability; and the championship rounds where both fighters' equal cardio scores (50 each) suggest sustained output capability. Taira's youth (25 vs 31) and superior activity rate position him well for extended battles, while Albazi's experience edge and defensive skills create upset potential in close exchanges.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Taira's path to victory involves leveraging his superior striking accuracy early to build scoring margins, then using his enhanced grappling volume to control position and hunting for submission finishes. His previous 16-fight win streak and 94.1% professional win rate demonstrate remarkable consistency, though he's coming off a split decision loss. His preferred finish method via rear naked choke (multiple submission victories) aligns perfectly with his higher submission attempt rate.
Conversely, Albazi's victory scenarios depend heavily on his defensive advantages creating counter-striking opportunities. His 31.9% superior striking defense must neutralize Taira's accuracy advantage, while his scrambling ability from takedown attempts could generate submission threats of his own. Albazi's 82.4% finish rate suggests he rarely leaves fights to the judges when executing his game plan effectively, making defensive counters and scramble submissions his primary win conditions.
🎯Final Prediction
While Albazi's defensive skills and veteran experience provide legitimate upset potential, Taira's comprehensive technical advantages across striking accuracy, grappling volume, and physical attributes create a strong foundation for victory. The 68-32 split reflects both the quality of Taira's recent performances and the challenges posed by Albazi's proven ability to compete with elite-level opposition. The fight likely favors Taira's more complete skill set, but Albazi's defensive craftiness and scrambling ability ensure competitive exchanges throughout.
Expect a technically engaging battle where Taira's superior accuracy and grappling activity gradually accumulate advantages, while Albazi searches for defensive counters and scramble opportunities. The winner will likely emerge through either Taira's consistent technical execution or Albazi's proven ability to capitalize on brief openings with fight-ending accuracy.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🔮Model Predictions
⭐Value Opportunities
Amir Albazi +212
Edge: +2.4% vs market
Kelly Criterion: 2.8% of bankroll
Market slightly undervalues Albazi's defensive advantages and scrambling ability. His +10% TDD and superior striking defense create legitimate upset paths.
Tatsuro Taira -213
Edge: -1.9% vs market
Kelly Criterion: Pass
Market accurately prices Taira's technical superiority. While he should win, the odds offer limited value for the risk involved.
🔍Key Market Discrepancies
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Albazi
47.1% of his wins | Primary threat from scrambles
17.6% of his wins | Defensive grinding
35.3% of his wins | Counter-striking opportunities
💥Outcome Distribution - Taira
43.8% of his wins | Rear naked choke specialist
25.0% of his wins | Technical dominance
31.3% of his wins | Striking accuracy advantage
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (5 Rounds)
🛡️Window of Opportunity - Albazi
- • Defensive Scrambles: Must capitalize on Taira's takedown attempts to create submission opportunities
- • Rounds 3-5: Experience advantage becomes more pronounced in championship rounds
- • Counter-Wrestling: Use superior TDD (+5%) to keep fight standing when needed
- • Pressure Defense: 31.9% striking defense advantage could neutralize Taira's volume
🎯Systematic Dominance - Taira
- • Round 1-2: Establish striking rhythm early with 71% accuracy advantage
- • Grappling Volume: 96% higher takedown rate wears down Albazi's defense over time
- • Submission Hunt: Triple the submission attempt rate creates constant finishing threats
- • Physical Advantages: Youth, reach, and height advantages sustained through all rounds
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear technical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Taira's comprehensive technical superiority
- • 71% striking accuracy advantage
- • 96% higher takedown rate
- • 215% higher submission rate
- • Physical advantages (youth, reach, height)
- • Previous 16-fight win streak experience
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Both fighters coming off decision losses
- • Taira's recent loss to Brandon Royval shows vulnerability
- • Albazi's defensive wrestling improvements
- • Experience gap (6 years in Albazi's favor)
- • Flyweight division's historical unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight main event showcases a classic bounce-back scenario, with both fighters looking to rebound from recent decision losses. Taira's technical superiority faces Albazi's defensive craftsmanship in a fight where both men need to prove they belong at the elite level. The statistical analysis strongly favors Taira across multiple key metrics: his 71% striking accuracy advantage, 96% higher takedown rate, and 215% higher submission attempt rate create a compelling case for victory. However, his recent split decision loss to Brandon Royval revealed some defensive vulnerabilities that Albazi could exploit.
Albazi's defensive credentials and veteran experience cannot be overlooked, especially given that both fighters are in similar positions coming off defeats. His 31.9% superior striking defense and +10% takedown defense advantage, combined with his proven ability to rebound from setbacks, create legitimate pathways to victory. The 68-32 probability split reflects Taira's technical dominance while acknowledging the psychological factors that come with both fighters needing to prove themselves after recent losses.
The betting market appears to have correctly priced this fight, with limited value opportunities. Albazi at +212 offers slight value (+2.4% model edge), reflecting the market's potential undervaluation of his defensive advantages and scrambling ability.
Final Prediction: Despite both fighters coming off losses, Taira's comprehensive technical advantages position him as the favorite in this bounce-back scenario. His victory path likely involves using his striking accuracy and grappling volume to overcome any confidence issues from his recent defeat. While both fighters need to prove themselves after setbacks, Taira's youth, technical superiority, and physical advantages suggest a methodical path to victory. The psychological element of both men looking to rebound adds unpredictability, but Taira's broader skill set should prevail over Albazi's defensive specialist approach.