Martin Buday vs Marcus Almeida
Heavyweight Division • UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Martin Buday
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-05 | Uran Satybaldiev | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Andrei Arlovski | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-16 | Shamil Gaziev | L | KO/TKO - Elbows & Punches (R2, 0:56) |
| 2023-08-12 | Josh Parisian | W | Submission - Kimura (R1, 4:11) |
| 2023-04-29 | Jake Collier | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Marcus Almeida
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | Amir Aliakbari | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:15) |
| 2023-08-04 | Oumar Kane | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-26 | Kirill Grishenko | W | Submission - Heel Hook (R1, 1:04) |
| 2022-06-03 | Simon Carson | W | TKO - Ground-and-Pound (R1, 2:24) |
| 2021-12-03 | Ji Won Kang | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 2:27) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70 vs 30) and Grappling Composite (50 vs 80). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Martin Buday Key Advantages
Heavy output along the fence with 4.67 vs 1.5 SLpM - excels at smothering outside shooters
30-ft cage rewards his lateral resets - harder for single-leg chains in larger space
Proven over full 15 minutes against veterans like Arlovski and Collier
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Absorbs 5.0 strikes/min - tends to get hit clean exiting clinch exchanges
Lacks one-shot knockout power to quickly end fights against elite grapplers
📋 Likely Gameplan
Jab-low-kick, sprawl & brawl - hunt knees in clinch when takedowns come
Force Buchecha to shoot from distance, then sap cardio with upper-body frames
🥋 Marcus Almeida Key Advantages
Once on top, pressure smothers frames - transitions to RNC or heel-hook chains
Utilizes long-step penetration from open space - elite wrestling credentials
80" reach aids level-change feints behind jab - can establish distance early
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Projected 45% striking defense vs Buday's volume - vulnerable to accumulative damage
4:31 average fight duration - predictable level-changes when fatigued
📋 Likely Gameplan
Double-leg into half-guard, knee-slice to mount before Buday can frame up the wall
Prioritize submission over positional control - must finish before cardio fades
🔮 Fight Prediction Analysis
Martin Buday
Primary Path: Decision via volume & clinch control
Secondary Path: Late TKO from accumulated damage
Marcus Buchecha
Primary Path: Submission via top control
Secondary Path: Ground-and-pound stoppage
🎯 Analysis Summary
The data strongly favors Buday's striking volume advantage and proven heavyweight durability over Buchecha's elite but untested grappling credentials. While Buchecha possesses world-class submission skills, his limited MMA experience and defensive vulnerabilities create significant exploitable windows. The large Abu Dhabi cage further benefits Buday's lateral movement and sprawling ability, making takedowns more difficult to chain together.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 28.6%
AVOID
Model: 60% | Market: 75.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 47.6%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 33.9%
PROP VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: 23.0%
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market overvalues Buchecha
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Significant overvaluation of Buchecha - Market mispriced this matchup at -300 (75.0% implied)
- • Undervalues Buday's experience - UFC veteran treated as major underdog at +250
- • Ignores striking advantages - Buday's superior striking output and accuracy overlooked
- • Good value on Buday - 11.4% edge represents solid betting opportunity
- • Prop bet opportunities - Goes the Distance (+195) offers 6.1% value
📊Comprehensive Betting Analysis
Method of Victory
Round Betting
Total Rounds & Props
🎯 Best Value Opportunities
🎲 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
🔬 100 Hypothetical Fight Simulation
Martin Buday (62 wins)
Marcus Buchecha (38 wins)
Simulation Notes: The model heavily favors Buday's decision path based on his proven volume striking and durability. Buchecha's wins concentrate in submission scenarios where he successfully implements early takedowns, with limited decision victories reflecting his cardio concerns in extended exchanges.
⏱️ Fight Timeline Analysis (Round by Round)
Round 1
Early takedown attempts expected
Round 2
Cardio disparity begins to show
Round 3
Advantage shifts to Buday
Timeline Analysis: Buchecha's best opportunities come in the first two rounds when his cardio is fresh and takedown attempts are most explosive. Round 3 sees a significant shift as Buday's superior conditioning allows him to maintain volume while Buchecha's defensive vulnerabilities become exploitable.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
✅ Supporting Factors
Buday holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and proven heavyweight durability
Abu Dhabi's large cage favors Buday's lateral movement and sprawling ability over chain wrestling
Proven track record against veteran heavyweights with varied skillsets and strategic approaches
Demonstrated ability to maintain output through full 15-minute fights in heavyweight division
⚠️ Risk Factors
Buchecha's world-class BJJ creates legitimate submission threats if he secures top position
Buday's high strike absorption rate could accumulate damage against skilled positional fighters
Buchecha's 3-inch reach advantage could facilitate level-change setups and distance management
Division's inherent unpredictability means single mistakes can dramatically alter fight outcomes
📋 Executive Summary
Martin Buday enters as the rightful favorite with multiple pathways to victory through proven heavyweight experience, superior striking volume, and cardio advantages that become increasingly valuable as the fight progresses. While Marcus Buchecha possesses world-class grappling credentials that create genuine submission threats, his limited MMA experience and defensive vulnerabilities provide exploitable windows for a volume-based strategy. The large Abu Dhabi cage further compounds the stylistic mismatch by favoring Buday's lateral reset ability over Buchecha's chain wrestling. Statistical analysis supports Buday via decision with 62% confidence.