Mohammad Yahya vs Steven Nguyen
UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Mohammad Yahya
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-03 | Kauê Fernandes | L | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R1, 4:45) |
| 2023-10-21 | Trevor Peek | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-02-26 | Souhil Tairi | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-03-27 | Moha Jaghdal | W | Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) (R5, 4:01) |
| 2021-09-03 | Yazid Chouchane | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:48) |
Last 5 Fights - Steven Nguyen
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-23 | Jarno Errens | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-12 | AJ Cunningham | W | TKO (Punches) (R2, 4:06) |
| 2021-09-21 | Theo Rlayang | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-02-19 | Jorge Juarez | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 0:30) |
| 2019-07-30 | Aalon Cruz | L | KO/TKO (Flying Knee) (R3, 4:36) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (37 vs 50) and Grappling Composite (46 vs 48). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, and finish rate. Yahya's shorter fights and lower volume reflect cardio concerns, while Nguyen's higher output suggests better endurance.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Nguyen's higher volume striking and better cardio give him a significant overall advantage in this matchup.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
💪 Mohammad Yahya Key Advantages
57% of his wins are KOs/TKOs and his knockdown rate is better; if he lands clean, Nguyen has been clipped regionally
Higher TD attempt rate (0.76 / 15 min) and perfect TD Acc—but Nguyen's 85% TD defence forces Yahya to shoot in open space
0.76 subs / 15 vs 0 for Nguyen, but Nguyen rarely concedes dominant positions
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Nguyen's massive volume advantage (7.15 vs 2.38 SLpM) could force Yahya into panic wrestling
Dropping to 145 lb for the first time—potential durability/cardio questions with the weight cut
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance behind overhands into body-lock trips early
Bank damage in R1–R2; hunt late sub if Nguyen over-extends in scrambles
🚀 Steven Nguyen Key Advantages
Triples Yahya's output (7.15 SLpM). In a 30-ft cage he can stay long, rack points, and drown a low-volume opponent
Nguyen's 61% strike-defence and 2-inch height edge reduce Yahya's KO equity
Longer average fight time, higher pace, and still throws >6 SLpM late
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Yahya's power punching and counter-striking could catch Nguyen coming forward
Despite good TDD, extended grappling could lead to submission vulnerability
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stay southpaw long kicks & jab-cross, force Yahya to lead
Sprawl-and-brawl: punish level changes with knees, break clinch quickly
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Stylistic Matchup
This featherweight bout showcases a classic volume striker vs power puncher dynamic. Nguyen's significant striking volume advantage (7.15 vs 2.38 SLpM) creates multiple pathways to victory, while Yahya's power punching and submission threat offer explosive finish potential. The key factor will be whether Nguyen can maintain his pace and distance management against Yahya's pressure tactics.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Nguyen's superior technical scores (49 vs 41) and cardio metrics (53 vs 36) suggest sustainable advantages throughout the fight. His 61% striking defense compared to Yahya's 39% indicates better defensive awareness, while his 85% takedown defense should neutralize Yahya's wrestling attempts. However, Yahya's perfect takedown accuracy and submission threat remain constant dangers.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be decided in the standup exchanges where Nguyen's volume meets Yahya's power. Nguyen's height advantage (5'11" vs 5'9") and superior striking defense create favorable angles for his southpaw stance. Yahya's path to victory requires early damage or successful takedowns, but Nguyen's cardio advantage suggests he can maintain effectiveness into the later rounds.
🔮Final Prediction
While Yahya possesses legitimate finishing power and wrestling skills, Nguyen's comprehensive advantages in volume, cardio, and striking defense create a clear path to victory. The featherweight debut for Yahya introduces additional variables regarding his durability and cardio at the new weight class. Expect Nguyen to implement his volume striking game plan effectively, potentially finishing with late-round TKO or earning a decision victory through superior output and defensive positioning.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Value assessment based on statistical model
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
⚖️Model Alignment
✅Perfect Model-Market Alignment
Our analytical model perfectly aligns with market probabilities (62% Nguyen, 38% Yahya), indicating efficient pricing. The statistical analysis supports the market's assessment of Nguyen's advantages in volume striking, cardio, and defensive metrics. No significant value opportunities identified, suggesting fair market pricing for both fighters.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
💥Outcome Distribution - Nguyen
Volume striking path
Cardio and volume advantage
Opportunistic submission
💪Outcome Distribution - Yahya
Power punching threat
Unlikely decision path
Wrestling to submission
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Yahya
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum power advantage before cardio differential
- • Counter-striking: Look for counter right-hand off Nguyen's rear kick
- • Wrestling entries: Must capitalize on early takedown attempts
- • Featherweight debut: Unknown factor that could work for or against
🎯Progressive Dominance - Nguyen
- • Volume accumulation: 3x striking output creates point-scoring advantage
- • Defensive superiority: 61% striking defense reduces Yahya's power equity
- • Cardio advantage: Better conditioning for sustained pace
- • Takedown defense: 85% TDD should neutralize wrestling threats
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and supporting factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic clarity
✅Supporting Factors
- • Nguyen's 3x striking volume advantage
- • Superior cardio and endurance metrics
- • Better defensive statistics
- • Height and reach advantages
- • 85% takedown defense
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Yahya's power punching threat
- • Perfect takedown accuracy
- • Submission skills advantage
- • Nguyen's limited UFC experience
- • Potential for flash KO
🏁Executive Summary
I'm moderately confident because the statistical clarity in Nguyen's favor is well-quantified and usually scales with cage size. Nguyen's volume, defense, and cardio edges are clearly documented, while both fighters are coming off losses but Yahya's two straight defeats against mid-tier competition raise concerns. The key uncertainty is Nguyen's limited UFC sample size and Yahya's featherweight debut. If Yahya's weight cut affects durability or he fails to secure early grappling success, Nguyen's pace should snowball toward either a late stoppage or clear decision victory.