Da'Mon Blackshear vs Davey Grant
Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Wrestling Specialist Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Striker/Grappler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Da'Mon Blackshear
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | Alatengheili | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Cody Gibson | W | Submission (Kimura) (R2, 4:09) |
| 2024-11-09 | Cody Stamann | W | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 4:19) |
| 2024-07-13 | Montel Jackson | L | TKO (Straight Left) (R1, 0:18) |
| 2023-08-19 | Mario Bautista | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Davey Grant
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Ramon Taveras | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Daniel Marcos | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Raphael Assunção | W | Submission (Triangle Choke) (R3, 4:43) |
| 2022-05-14 | Louis Smolka | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R3, 0:49) |
| 2021-11-20 | Adrian Yanez | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (75 vs 55). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🤼 Da'Mon Blackshear Key Advantages
Elite submission threat with 8x more submission attempts per 15 minutes (1.56 vs 0.19)
Superior 71% takedown defense vs 61% - harder to ground and control
8-year age advantage (31 vs 39) with 3" reach advantage and better damage control
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Grant's superior striking output (5.3 vs 3.6 SLpM) and accuracy could overwhelm in standup
Grant's proven knockout power and higher finish rate could end the fight early
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use lateral movement and reactive shots, chain single-legs into fence control
Hunt for back-takes and rear-naked chokes, use submission threats to control pace
🥊 Davey Grant Key Advantages
Elite striking pace with 5.3 SLpM vs 3.6 - relentless pressure and volume
Superior 44% striking accuracy vs 40.8% - more precise and efficient striking
Proven finishing ability with 50% of career wins by KO/TKO - dangerous power
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Poor takedown defense (61%) vulnerable to Blackshear's wrestling pressure
39 years old - potential cardio fade in later rounds against younger opponent
📋 Likely Gameplan
Keep fight standing with relentless pocket pressure and high-volume combinations
Defend takedowns with sprawls, immediately return to striking range for counters
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚖️Statistical Breakdown
The Monte Carlo simulation reveals a compelling stylistic clash between Blackshear's grappling-heavy approach and Grant's volume striking game. Grant's 47% superior striking output (5.3 vs 3.6 SLpM) and proven knockout power create clear advantages in the standup exchanges, while Blackshear's 8x submission attempt rate (1.56 vs 0.19 per 15 minutes) and superior takedown defense (71% vs 61%) present significant threats in grappling scenarios.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined by range control and takedown entries. Grant's southpaw pressure boxing and exceptional striking accuracy (44% vs 40.8%) favor extended striking exchanges, particularly in the pocket where his power is most dangerous. Conversely, Blackshear's path to victory involves utilizing his 3" reach advantage to set up reactive takedowns and exploit Grant's vulnerable 61% takedown defense through chain wrestling.
⏰Fight Progression Analysis
The 8-year age gap (31 vs 39) becomes increasingly relevant as the fight progresses. Grant's historical pattern shows effectiveness in early rounds with his knockout power, but Blackshear's superior cardio score (78 vs 72) and wrestling pressure could become dominant factors in round 3. The simulation heavily weighs Grant's ability to implement sprawl-and-brawl tactics against Blackshear's chain wrestling attempts.
🔮Victory Path Analysis
Grant's most likely victory scenario (24% probability) involves early striking pressure leading to a late-round TKO after wearing down Blackshear with volume and preventing sustained grappling exchanges. Blackshear's primary path (20% submission probability) requires successfully implementing his wrestling game and finding back control opportunities during Grant's combination exits or defensive scrambles.
🏁Final Assessment
The 58-42 split reflects Grant's slight edge in overall finishing ability and stylistic matchup advantages. His proven durability, higher UFC-level striking output, and ability to sprawl-and-brawl give him multiple paths to victory. However, Blackshear's grappling supremacy and physical advantages keep this within competitive range, making it a genuine coin-flip fight that could swing on tactical execution and early momentum establishment.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 58% | Market: 27.0%
AVOID
Model: 42% | Market: 76.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: 33.3%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: 45.5%
PROP VALUE
Model: 30% | Market: 22.2%
MARKET ANALYSIS
Market heavily overvalues Blackshear
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • MASSIVE overvaluation of Blackshear - Market completely mispriced this matchup at -320 (76.2% implied)
- • Severely undervalues Grant's experience - Veteran striker treated as major underdog at +270
- • Ignores striking advantages - Grant's superior striking output and accuracy overlooked
- • Extreme value on Grant - 31.0% edge represents exceptional betting opportunity
- • Prop bet opportunities - Grant by Points (+350) offers 7.8% value
📊Comprehensive Betting Analysis
Method of Victory
Round Betting
Total Rounds & Props
🎯 Best Value Opportunities
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
1000 fight simulation based on statistical data
🔥Outcome Distribution - Blackshear
65% of his wins | Primary threat weapon
24% of his wins | Volume grappling path
12% of his wins | Rare but possible
💥Outcome Distribution - Grant
28% of his wins | Primary finishing method
21% of his wins | Volume striking path
50% of his wins | Significant submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🥊Window of Opportunity - Grant
- • First 5 minutes: Maximum power and timing advantages
- • Round 1-2: 33% of his finishes occur in early rounds
- • Pocket exchanges: Superior accuracy and volume striking
- • Sprawl timing: Fresh legs for defensive wrestling
🎯Progressive Advantage - Blackshear
- • Round 2+: Chain wrestling becomes more effective
- • Accumulation: Grant's TDD degrades from wrestling pressure
- • Submission threat: Constant danger increases with fatigue
- • Age factor: 8-year youth advantage becomes apparent
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Good confidence due to clear statistical edges
✅Supporting Factors
- • Grant's volume striking advantage
- • Clear stylistic matchup patterns
- • Significant physical advantages for Blackshear
- • Strong statistical sample sizes
- • Historical grappler vs striker outcomes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Grant's age factor uncertainty
- • Limited recent sample for both fighters
- • Bantamweight division volatility
- • Blackshear's takedown accuracy concerns
- • First-time matchup unpredictability
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight bout presents a compelling stylistic clash between Grant's volume striking game and Blackshear's grappling-based approach. Grant's 47% superior striking output (5.3 vs 3.6 SLpM) and proven knockout power create clear advantages in standup exchanges, while his recent unanimous decision victory demonstrates continued effectiveness at 39 years old.
The betting market appears to correctly identify Grant as the favorite, though it may slightly undervalue Blackshear's grappling advantages. Our model projects Blackshear's submission threat (1.56 attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.19) and physical advantages as significant factors, but Grant's superior finishing ability and stylistic matchup advantages maintain his edge.
Prediction: Grant's volume striking and proven power should overcome Blackshear's grappling threat, particularly early in the fight when Grant's advantages are most pronounced. The 58-42 split reflects Grant's multiple paths to victory while acknowledging Blackshear's legitimate submission threat and physical advantages create genuine competitive uncertainty.