Bryce Mitchell vs Said Nurmagomedov
UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Said Nurmagomedov
18-4-0
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Bryce Mitchell
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Jean Silva | L | Submission (Ninja Choke) (R2, 3:52) |
| 2024-12-07 | Kron Gracie | W | KO/TKO (Elbows From Top) (R3, 0:39) |
| 2023-12-16 | Josh Emmett | L | KO/TKO (Overhand Right) (R1, 1:57) |
| 2023-09-23 | Dan Ige | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-10 | Ilia Topuria | L | Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) (R2, 3:10) |
Last 5 Fights - Said Nurmagomedov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Vinicius Oliveira | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-21 | Muin Gafurov | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (R1, 1:13) |
| 2023-03-11 | Jonathan Martinez | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-17 | Saidyokub Kakhramonov | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (R2, 3:50) |
| 2022-07-09 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis Breakdown
Bryce Mitchell Key Advantages
Unfavorable Scenarios
Said Nurmagomedov Key Advantages
Unfavorable Scenarios
Fight Prediction Analysis
Detailed Analysis Summary
Match-up Dynamics
The fight dynamic hinges on range. In open space, Nurmagomedov's higher kick volume and movement give him control, especially in a large 30ft cage. In the clinch and on the mat, Mitchell's size and relentless chain wrestling provide a clear advantage. A key battle will be the front-headlock scrambles, where Nurmagomedov's elite guillotine counters Mitchell's tendency to shoot with an exposed neck.
Critical Variables
Three critical variables will likely decide the outcome: 1) The success of Mitchell's first two takedown attempts. If he succeeds, he can pile up control time. If stuffed, his entries may slow. 2) Mitchell's neck exposure on takedown attempts against Nurmagomedov's three UFC guillotine wins. 3) The unknown effect of Mitchell's weight cut on his gas tank, which could flip the later rounds.
Final Prediction
While Mitchell's top-control is a potent weapon, the risks involved in implementing it against a dangerous submission artist like Nurmagomedov are significant. Nurmagomedov has a statistical edge in striking output, defense, and finishing danger. The large cage favors his movement, and Mitchell's weight cut is a major uncertainty. If Nurmagomedov can survive the first six minutes and keep the fight at range, his superior pace and submission counters should lead him to victory in most scenarios.
Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market Odds (Moneyline)
Analytical Model
Method of Victory Analysis
Bryce Mitchell Victory Methods
Said Nurmagomedov Victory Methods
Total Rounds Analysis
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
Goes the Distance
Value Opportunities & Market Discrepancies
Round Betting Analysis
Bryce Mitchell Round Wins
Said Nurmagomedov Round Wins
Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence due to stylistic complexity and weight cut unknowns.
✅ Supporting Factors (for Nurmagomedov)
- Superior striking output and defense
- Proven finishing danger (submission/KO)
- Large cage favors his lateral movement
- Mitchell's neck exposure on entries
⚠️ Risk Factors
- Mitchell's unknown cardio/strength at 135lbs
- Mitchell's potential for smothering top-control
- Nurmagomedov's defensive grappling under sustained pressure
- Volatility of a new weight class debut