Amanda Ribas vs Tabatha Ricci
UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 12, 2025
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Amanda Ribas
12-6-0
Career Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Career Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Amanda Ribas
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Mackenzie Dern | L | Submission (Armbar) (R3, 4:56) |
| 2024-03-23 | Rose Namajunas | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Luana Pinheiro | W | TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick & Punches) (R3, 3:53) |
| 2023-06-24 | Maycee Barber | L | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R2, 3:42) |
| 2023-03-04 | Viviane Araujo | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Tabatha Ricci
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Xiaonan Yan | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | Angela Hill | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-11 | Tecia Pennington | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Lupita Godinez | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Gillian Robertson | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (74 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (82 vs 60). Ribas's score reflects her potent submission game and solid striking.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate, and finish rate. Both fighters show solid endurance, but Ribas's higher pace (4.29 SLpM) and significantly higher finish rate (58.3% vs 36.4%) give her the edge in later rounds.
🎯Overall Rating
A simple average of the Technical and Cardio Scores. This provides a holistic view of a fighter's capabilities, combining their technical skill set with their physical conditioning and performance over a full fight.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, Striking Accuracy, Striking Defense, and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min, Takedown Accuracy, Takedown Defense, and Submission Attempts per 15min. Evaluates the complete grappling game, including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Amanda Ribas Key Advantages
Judo-based grappler who chains takedowns (2.06 per 15) into dominant top control and submission threats (0.59 per 15).
Significant height (+3") and reach (+5") advantages allow her to control distance and defend takedowns (83% TD Def).
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Can be out-struck in firefights if she can't secure takedowns. Her chin has been tested with 2 KO/TKO losses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach to strike from the outside, force grappling exchanges, and hunt for submissions or control for a decision win.
🚀 Tabatha Ricci Key Advantages
Maintains a high pace with volume striking and extended cardio, aiming to win rounds for a decision.
Favors clinch-strikes and positional scrambles, with a solid takedown offense to mix things up.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Absorbs a high number of strikes (5.29/min) and has minimal submission threat (0.12 subs/15 min), making her vulnerable on the ground and to power counters.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use footwork in a larger cage to stay at range, rely on volume striking, and use clinch work to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges on the mat.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
🎲 Current Market Odds
Total Rounds (Over/Under 2.5)
Method of Victory
Round Betting
Prop Bets
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 38.5%
MODERATE VALUE
Model: 45% | Market: 25.0%
OVERPRICED
Model: 55% | Market: 80.0%
💎Best Value Bets
- • Under 2.5 Rounds (+300): Excellent value with 20% edge vs model
- • Ricci Moneyline (+160): Good value with 3.5% edge vs model
- • Fight Ends Inside Distance (+275): High value given finishing potential
- • Either Fighter by KO/TKO (+850): Reasonable value for power shots
⚠️Key Market Insights
- • Market expects longer fight - Over 2.5 rounds heavily overpriced
- • Ricci slightly undervalued - Physical advantages not fully priced
- • Decision props overpriced - Market underestimates finishing potential
- • Submission props offer value - Both fighters have grappling skills
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in Ribas's grappling and defensive edge.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Multi-dimensional grappling superiority.
- • Significant reach advantage (+5").
- • Higher takedown accuracy (54% vs 38%).
- • Proven top game in recent wins.
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ricci's high-volume striking pace.
- • Ribas has been vulnerable to TKOs.
- • Ricci's durability (never finished).
- • Ribas's momentum (2-fight losing streak).
🏁Executive Summary
This fight pits Ribas's multi-dimensional grappling superiority against Ricci's high-volume striking. Ribas has a clear path to victory on the ground, where her elite takedown accuracy and submission skills can negate Ricci's striking. Ricci's only path is to keep the fight standing and outwork Ribas, a difficult task given Ribas's adept takedown prevention.