Petr Yan vs Marcus McGhee
3 Round Bantamweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs de Ridder
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Elite Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Petr Yan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-23 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Song Yadong | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-22 | Sean O'Malley | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-09 | Aljamain Sterling | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Marcus McGhee
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-16 | Jonathan Martinez | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-01-13 | Gaston Bolaños | W | TKO (R2, 3:29) |
| 2023-08-12 | JP Buys | W | KO (R1, 2:19) |
| 2023-04-29 | Journey Newson | W | Submission (R2, 2:03) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score Methodology
Yan: 63/100 | McGhee: 65/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (73 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (53 vs 45). McGhee's elite striking efficiency (6.06 SLpM, 65% defense) gives him a slight technical edge despite Yan's superior accuracy.
💪Cardio Score Methodology
Yan: 61/100 | McGhee: 42/100
Based on average fight duration (Yan: 17:17 vs McGhee: 8:13), decision rate, and championship rounds experience. Yan's proven ability to maintain pace over 5 rounds and championship experience gives him a significant cardio advantage for 3-round fights.
🎯Overall Rating Breakdown
Yan: 62.0/100 | McGhee: 53.5/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Despite McGhee's technical advantages, Yan's championship-level conditioning and proven ability in extended exchanges gives him the overall edge.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. McGhee's superior output (6.06 vs 5.11) and elite defense (65% vs 59%) give him the striking edge.
🤼Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Yan's active wrestling game (1.61 TD/15min, 49% accuracy) vs McGhee's perfect TDD (100%) creates an interesting dynamic.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧠 Petr Yan Key Advantages
Elite conditioning proven over 5-round championship fights - 17:17 average fight duration
Active takedown game with 49% accuracy - can control fight positioning and optics
Superior shot selection and precision striking - championship experience shows
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
McGhee's 2" reach and 0.5" height advantage could control distance and striking exchanges
McGhee's perfect 100% TDD could negate Yan's wrestling advantage completely
📋 Likely Gameplan
Weather early storm, then use superior cardio to dominate rounds 2-3 with pace and pressure
Mix takedown attempts to disrupt McGhee's rhythm and force defensive wrestling
💥 Marcus McGhee Key Advantages
Elite finishing ability with 8 KO/TKO wins and 1.37 knockdown average per fight
Perfect takedown defense through 4 UFC fights - iron sprawl and scramble ability
Height and reach advantages with superior striking output (6.06 vs 5.11 SLpM)
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Short average fight duration (8:13) suggests potential cardio issues in extended fights
Lower striking accuracy (48% vs 54%) could lead to wasted energy in longer exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use early striking advantage and power to build leads before potential cardio fade
Keep fight standing using 100% TDD and force striking exchanges where size matters
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
👑Championship vs Rising Star Dynamics
This bantamweight bout represents the classic clash between proven championship experience and dangerous rising talent. Yan brings championship-level conditioning, technique, and mental fortitude developed through elite-level competition, while McGhee represents the new generation with superior physical tools and finishing ability.
⚖️Key Statistical Battle
The statistics reveal a fascinating contrast: McGhee's striking advantages (6.06 vs 5.11 SLpM, 65% vs 59% defense) versus Yan's championship intangibles and superior accuracy (54% vs 48%). McGhee's perfect takedown defense (100%) neutralizes Yan's wrestling edge (1.61 TD/15min), making this primarily a striking battle where physical dimensions favor McGhee.
⏰Time Factor Analysis
Fight duration becomes crucial: McGhee's 8:13 average suggests early power but potential cardio limitations, while Yan's 17:17 average demonstrates championship conditioning. The 45% cardio advantage for Yan becomes increasingly important as the fight progresses beyond the first 7-8 minutes where McGhee typically finishes fights.
🔮Victory Paths
Yan's Path: Weather McGhee's early offense, establish tactical superiority through superior accuracy and ring IQ, then dominate rounds 2-3 with championship conditioning and pace. Late-round submissions or TKO possible as McGhee fades.
McGhee's Path: Utilize physical advantages and perfect TDD to keep fight standing, press early offense with superior volume and power, look for finish opportunity in first 8 minutes before potential cardio decline sets in.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
🎲 Current Market Odds
Total Rounds (Over/Under 2.5)
Method of Victory
Round Betting
Prop Bets
💎Value Opportunities
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 24.1%
MODERATE VALUE
Model: 41.7% | Market: 31.3%
OVERPRICED
Model: 65% | Market: 79.2%
💎Best Value Bets
- • McGhee Moneyline (+315): Excellent value with 10.9% edge vs model
- • Under 2.5 Rounds (+220): Good value given both fighters' finishing ability
- • McGhee by KO/TKO (+700): High value if McGhee can land power shots
- • Fight Ends Inside Distance (+200): Reasonable value for finish
⚠️Key Market Insights
- • Market heavily favors Yan - Overpriced by 14.2% vs model prediction
- • McGhee undervalued - Physical advantages and power not properly priced
- • Over 2.5 rounds overpriced - Market expects longer fight than model
- • Decision props overpriced - Market underestimates finishing potential
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Yan
55.6% of his wins | Superior cardio + late control
38.9% of his wins | Late-round TKO as McGhee fades
5.6% of his wins | Rear naked choke opportunity
💥Outcome Distribution - McGhee
80% of his wins | Early power + knockout ability
10% of his wins | Unlikely due to cardio concerns
No submission wins in UFC career
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡McGhee's Window - Rounds 1-2
- • First 8 minutes: Maximum knockout danger window
- • Early pressure: Use size and power advantages
- • Finish opportunity: 70% of wins occur in first 2 rounds
- • Perfect TDD: Neutralize Yan's wrestling early
🧠Yan's Strategy - Championship Rounds
- • Survival mode: Weather early storm with defense
- • Cardio advantage: 45% superior conditioning shows late
- • Technical edge: Championship experience in pressure
- • Late control: Dominate as McGhee's gas tank empties
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high confidence based on championship experience
✅Supporting Factors
- • Championship-level cardio and experience
- • Superior striking accuracy and ring IQ
- • Proven ability to win tough decisions
- • Wrestling game provides tactical options
- • Historical performance in 3-round fights
⚠️Risk Factors
- • McGhee's knockout power (1.37 KD/fight)
- • Physical disadvantages (reach/height)
- • Perfect TDD neutralizes wrestling
- • McGhee's superior striking volume
- • First 8 minutes represent danger zone
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight bout presents a fascinating contrast between proven championship experience and dangerous physical tools. While McGhee possesses significant early advantages (knockout power, size, perfect TDD), Yan's championship conditioning and technical superiority become increasingly valuable as the fight progresses.
The betting market accurately reflects the skill differential, offering limited value opportunities. Our model's 65% probability for Yan aligns closely with market pricing, with slight value existing in McGhee (+165) and over 2.5 rounds bets based on both fighters' defensive capabilities.
Prediction: Yan weathers McGhee's early offensive surge through superior technical defense and ring IQ, then systematically breaks down the challenger in rounds 2-3 using championship conditioning and pace. Decision victory likely as McGhee's perfect TDD keeps the fight standing but cardio limitations become apparent in the later stages.