Shara Magomedov vs Marc-André Barriault
3 Round Middleweight Bout • UFC Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Power Puncher Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Shara Magomedov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Michael Page | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-26 | Armen Petrosyan | W | TKO - Double Spinning Backfist (R2, 4:52) |
| 2024-08-03 | Michał Oleksiejczuk | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Antonio Trócoli | W | TKO - Left Hook (R3, 2:27) |
| 2023-10-21 | Bruno Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Marc-André Barriault
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Bruno Silva | W | TKO - Clinch Elbows (R1, 1:27) |
| 2024-11-02 | Dustin Stoltzfus | L | TKO - Right Hook → Ground Strikes (R1, 4:28) |
| 2024-06-29 | Joe Pyfer | L | KO - Overhand Right (R1, 1:25) |
| 2024-01-20 | Chris Curtis | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Eryk Anders | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (11.2 vs 9.1) and Grappling Composite (4.7 vs 5.1). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🎯 Shara Magomedov Key Advantages
Elite 62% striking accuracy with stabbing rear-leg kicks and spinning attacks vs opponent who absorbs 5.6 strikes per minute
Maintains output deep into rounds - scored KO at 12:45 of R3 vs Trócoli, showing excellent conditioning
Excellent 73% takedown defense for a pure striker - can stay on feet where he's most dangerous
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios
Heavy on lead leg after spinning attacks - open to calf kicks or level changes from experienced opponent
Can be held if opponent muscles inside and negates kicking game with clinch work
📋Likely Gameplan
Stay long, chew the lead leg, draw Barriault onto counters and head-kick traps. Use movement and angles to pick shots, reset position frequently, and exploit accuracy advantage against pressure fighter.
⚡ Marc-André Barriault Key Advantages
Division-leading 6.02 strikes per minute - constant pressure that can overwhelm counter-strikers
Excellent clinch elbows and knees - mixes body work well to neutralize kicking game
Veteran of 16 UFC bouts with extensive cage experience against diverse opposition
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios
48% accuracy vs precision striker - struggles to land clean shots while absorbing counters
KO/TKO losses in 2 of last 3 defeats suggests chin may be trending down with age
📋Likely Gameplan
Press straight lines, tie up to dull kicking game, work body, sprinkle odd takedown. Use pressure and volume to force pocket exchanges where clinch work can neutralize range advantage.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
📊Official Projection
Shara Magomedov win probability: 68%
Marc-André Barriault win probability: 32%
(Each fighter's method probabilities sum exactly to their overall win chance)
🔄 Match-up Dynamics
| Key Factor | Who Benefits | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Large 30-ft cage | Magomedov | Gives the mover space to pick shots and reset angles |
| Pocket exchanges & clinch | Barriault | "Power Bar" thrives when he crowds kicks and fires combos to the body |
| Cardio into R3 | Even | Both average ~10-13 min octagon time and keep pace |
| One-shot power & accuracy | Magomedov | 62% accuracy vs a foe who absorbs 5.6 per min spells knockout danger |
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Western-style odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (aligned with probabilities)
🎲 Current Market Odds
Total Rounds (Over/Under 1.5)
Method of Victory
Round Betting
Prop Bets
💎Value Opportunities
NO VALUE
Market: 86.7% | Model: 68%
EXCELLENT VALUE
Market: 17.4% | Model: 32%
💎Best Value Bets
- • Barriault Moneyline (+475): Excellent value with 14.6% edge vs model
- • Goes the Distance (+185): Good value given both fighters' durability
- • Barriault by Points (+850): High value if fight goes to decision
- • Over 1.5 Rounds (-160): Reasonable value for longer fight
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Magomedov's rising star status - Market doesn't account for small UFC sample size
- • Undervalues Barriault's veteran durability - Recent KO win over Bruno Silva shows resilience
- • Recency bias toward precision striking - Market overreacts to Magomedov's accuracy advantages
- • Ignores volume pressure dynamics - Barriault's 6.0 SLpM pace can overwhelm counter-strikers
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis (3 Rounds)
🎯Likely Gameplans
Magomedov:
Stay long, chew the lead leg, draw Barriault onto counters and head-kick traps.
Barriault:
Press straight lines, tie up to dull kicking game, work body, sprinkle the odd takedown to bank optics.
🔥Key Finishing Scenarios
- • Magomedov R2-R3: Counter-strike timing as Barriault pressures
- • Barriault R1-R2: Volume pressure overwhelms early
- • Decision: 38% chance - technical battle goes full distance
- • Late finish: Magomedov's deep-round power (KO at 12:45 vs Trócoli)
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Conviction Rating: 6/10
Conviction Rating
Solid lean toward Magomedov
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior accuracy advantage (+14%)
- • Better defensive metrics (-1.4 SAPM)
- • Deep-round finishing ability
- • Solid takedown defense (73%)
- • Precision vs volume style matchup
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Barriault's elite pace (6.0 SLpM)
- • Small UFC sample (5 bouts)
- • Veteran pressure experience
- • Recent Bruno Silva KO shows chin
- • Clinch work vulnerability
🏁Executive Summary
I'm leaning solidly toward Magomedov - his superior accuracy-plus-defence differential (+14% accuracy, -1.4 SAPM) usually translates to clean rounds or a late finish, especially in space. The rating stops short of "lock" territory because:
• Barriault's pace is genuinely elite; if Shara's counters don't deter him early, volume could nick two rounds
• Barriault just scored a confidence-boosting KO of Bruno Silva (May 2025), hinting the chin may still hold up
• Magomedov's small UFC sample (5 bouts) leaves some unknowns—particularly against a high-pressure grinder
Still, in 100 runs we see Magomedov's precision and fresher durability prevailing roughly seven times out of ten.