Bogdan Guskov vs Nikita Krylov
3 Round Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Abu Dhabi
Saturday, July 26, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Rising Contender Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Bogdan Guskov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Billy Elekana | W | Submission (Guillotine Choke) (R2, 3:33) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ryan Spann | W | TKO (Ground & Pound) (R2, 3:16) |
| 2024-02-10 | Zac Pauga | W | TKO (Combination Punches) (R1, 3:38) |
| 2023-09-02 | Volkan Oezdemir | L | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 3:46) |
| 2023-03-18 | Carlos Eduardo | W | KO/TKO (R1, 0:25) |
Last 5 Fights - Nikita Krylov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Dominick Reyes | L | KO/TKO (Counter Left) (R1, 2:24) |
| 2023-03-11 | Ryan Spann | W | Submission (Triangle Choke) (R1, 3:38) |
| 2022-10-22 | Volkan Oezdemir | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-23 | Alexander Gustafsson | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 1:07) |
| 2022-03-19 | Paul Craig | L | Submission (Triangle Choke) (R1, 3:57) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
🎯Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef) and Grappling Composite (TD15, TDAcc, TDDef, SubPer15). Measures overall technical skill and ring IQ.
🔥Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate maintenance, finish rate, and round distribution. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
⭐Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities, combining skill level with conditioning for a well-rounded performance assessment.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Bogdan Guskov Key Advantages
Perfect finishing ability with all 3 UFC wins ending in stoppage - exceptional knockout and submission power
Building momentum with consecutive victories - hungry and motivated rising contender
Prime athletic age with explosive power and unpredictable striking patterns
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Krylov's superior submission threat and grappling experience could control ground positions
Krylov's superior cardio and experience could take over if fight goes into later rounds
📋 Likely Gameplan
Look for early finish with explosive combinations and power shots before Krylov finds rhythm
Force exchanges in the pocket where his power advantage can make the difference
🚀 Nikita Krylov Key Advantages
Massive experience advantage with 4.5x more UFC fights - battle-tested against elite competition
Elite submission game with dangerous ground control and finishing ability from any position
Better cardio and conditioning for late-round performance - can maintain pace longer
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Guskov's 100% finish rate and explosive power could catch Krylov before he establishes control
Rising contender mentality and hunger could create unpredictable momentum in Guskov's favor
📋 Likely Gameplan
Survive early power shots and use experience to take control as fight progresses
Utilize superior grappling and submission threat to control pace and position
🎯Model Prediction
Win Probability
Key Model Factors
- • Experience Gap: Krylov has 4.5x more UFC fights
- • ELO Advantage: 107.3 point rating difference
- • Submission Threat: Krylov's ground game advantage
- • Veteran Composure: Proven against top-level competition
💰Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market vs Model Analysis
Total Rounds (Over/Under 1.5)
Method of Victory
Round Betting
Prop Bets
Betting Analysis
- • Value Play: Guskov at +170 offers significant value vs model prediction
- • Method Bet: Krylov by submission (+210) aligns with his strengths
- • Round Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-158) given both fighters' finishing ability
- • Prop Value: Either fighter by submission (+150) offers good value
🥊How Guskov Wins (72% Model Probability)
100% finish rate | Must capitalize early
Strong grappling base | Opportunistic finisher
Unlikely given finishing tendencies
⚡How Krylov Wins (28% Model Probability)
Elite ground game | 1.42 sub attempts per 15min
Power + experience | Counter-striker
Superior cardio for longer fights
🎯 Final Assessment
Veteran experience vs rising power
Confidence Level
Good confidence based on experience gap
✅Key Factors
- • Massive experience advantage (Krylov)
- • Superior submission threat
- • Better cardio and conditioning
- • ELO rating gap significant
- • Proven against elite competition
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Guskov's 100% finish rate
- • Early knockout power threat
- • Young and hungry opponent
- • Pressure of being favorite
- • MMA's unpredictable nature
🏁Final Prediction
This light heavyweight clash features the classic veteran vs prospect narrative. Krylov brings substantial UFC experience with 18 fights compared to Guskov's 4, along with superior technical skills (78.3 vs 72.5) and better cardio conditioning. His submission threat (1.42 attempts per 15 minutes) poses a significant danger.
However, Guskov's perfect 100% finish rate and knockout power create genuine upset potential, especially early in the fight. The betting odds accurately reflect the experience gap, offering little value in either direction.
Prediction: Krylov's veteran savvy and well-rounded skill set prove decisive. He survives early danger, utilizes his superior grappling to control the fight, and secures a submission victory in the second round, showcasing why experience often trumps raw power in the UFC.