Reinier de Ridder vs Robert Whittaker
UFC Middleweight Title Eliminator • UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs Whittaker
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Reinier de Ridder
"The Dutch Knight"
20-2-0
🥇 Perfect UFC Record
Perfect UFC Record Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
26-8-0
👑 Former Champion
Former Champion Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last UFC Fights - Reinier de Ridder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Bo Nickal | W | KO/TKO (knee) (R2, 1:53) |
| 2025-01-18 | Kevin Holland | W | SUB (rear-naked choke) (R1, 3:31) |
| 2024-11-09 | Gerald Meerschaert | W | SUB (arm-triangle choke) (R3, 1:44) |
Last 5 Fights - Robert Whittaker
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Khamzat Chimaev | L | SUB (face crank) (R1, 3:34) |
| 2024-06-22 | Ikram Aliskerov | W | KO (punches) (R1, 1:49) |
| 2023-07-08 | Dricus Du Plessis | L | TKO (punches) (R2, 2:23) |
| 2022-02-12 | Israel Adesanya | L | Decision (unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2021-04-17 | Kelvin Gastelum | W | Decision (unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score Methodology
de Ridder: 56.8/100 | Whittaker: 59.1/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (45.2 vs 75.8) and Grappling Composite (68.4 vs 42.3). Whittaker's superior striking (75.8 vs 45.2) gives him the technical edge despite de Ridder's grappling advantage (68.4 vs 42.3).
💪Cardio Score Methodology
de Ridder: 72.5/100 | Whittaker: 68.2/100
Based on average fight duration (de Ridder: 2.2 vs Whittaker: 2.9 rounds), striking rate per minute (3.25 vs 4.54), submission rate, and finish rate. de Ridder's perfect finish rate and aggressive submission style demonstrate superior finishing conditioning.
🎯Overall Rating Breakdown
de Ridder: 64.7/100 | Whittaker: 63.7/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Despite Whittaker's technical advantage, de Ridder's superior cardio and perfect finish rate create a near-even overall rating. The 1-point gap reflects how closely matched these fighters are despite different skill sets.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Reinier de Ridder Key Advantages
Elite submission game with 1.36 attempts per 15 minutes and perfect finish rate
Undefeated in UFC with 100% finish rate including impressive KO of Bo Nickal
Significant height (4") and reach (4.5") advantages similar to Chimaev's blueprint
Whittaker just submitted by Chimaev (face crank) - first career submission loss
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended striking at distance where Whittaker's superior volume (4.54 vs 3.25) dominates
Whittaker's elite 81% TDD could neutralize de Ridder's takedown attempts (39% accuracy)
📋 Likely Gameplan
Replicate Chimaev's blueprint - immediate pressure and clinch work to neutralize striking
Relentless pursuit of takedowns and submission attempts, especially early in rounds
🚀 Robert Whittaker Key Advantages
Superior striking output (4.54 vs 3.25 per minute) and elite striking composite (75.8)
Elite takedown defense (81%) and superior striking defense (60% vs 44%)
Massive experience advantage (23 vs 3 UFC fights) and former middleweight champion
Recent spectacular first-round KO of Ikram Aliskerov showing elite knockout power
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended clinch positions against the cage where de Ridder excels at submissions
Psychological impact of recent submission loss could affect grappling confidence
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use footwork and jab to maintain distance and avoid clinch entries early
Punish takedown attempts with strikes and sprawl to prevent ground exchanges
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome likely depends on de Ridder's ability to replicate the Chimaev blueprint against Whittaker. De Ridder's physical advantages (4" height, 4.5" reach) mirror Chimaev's, and Whittaker's recent submission loss could create psychological vulnerabilities. However, Whittaker's 81% takedown defense and vastly superior experience (23 vs 3 UFC fights) present significant obstacles.
🔮Victory Scenarios
de Ridder's Path: Early pressure and clinch work to neutralize Whittaker's striking advantage. Must avoid extended striking exchanges and capitalize on any takedown opportunities. His perfect UFC finish rate and submission skills become decisive if he can get the fight to the ground.
Whittaker's Path: Use elite takedown defense and footwork to keep the fight standing. Establish jab early, control distance, and accumulate damage with superior striking volume. His experience and conditioning advantages become more pronounced in longer fights.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Title Eliminator Dynamics
This middleweight title eliminator represents a fascinating contrast between proven championship pedigree and rising submission artistry. Whittaker brings former champion experience and battle-tested skills against elite competition, while de Ridder brings the momentum of a perfect UFC record with dangerous finishing ability. Whittaker's recent submission loss to Chimaev creates psychological questions about his ground game confidence against elite grapplers.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals Whittaker's superior striking (4.54 vs 3.25 per minute) and elite takedown defense (81%). However, de Ridder's 100% UFC finish rate and 1.36 submission attempts per 15 minutes create immediate submission threats. Whittaker's technical score advantage (59.1 vs 56.8) reflects his more complete striking game, while de Ridder's grappling dominance (68.4 vs 42.3) represents his primary weapon.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome likely depends on de Ridder's ability to replicate the Chimaev blueprint against Whittaker. De Ridder's significant physical advantages (4" height, 4.5" reach) mirror those that troubled Whittaker previously, while Whittaker's vast experience edge (23 vs 3 UFC fights) and superior striking volume become crucial if the fight stays standing beyond the early exchanges.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Whittaker's path to victory involves utilizing his elite takedown defense (81%) to keep the fight standing, establishing distance control through superior footwork and jab, then accumulating damage with his superior striking volume. His championship experience and conditioning advantages become more pronounced in longer fights.
De Ridder must press forward early with clinch work and takedown attempts, avoiding extended striking exchanges. His perfect UFC finish rate and submission expertise become decisive if he can get Whittaker to the ground. Physical advantages and recent Chimaev blueprint provide a clear tactical roadmap for success.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props (5 Rounds)
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props (5 Rounds)
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 44.4%
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 25% | Estimated: ~+350
FAIR VALUE
Model: 57.4% | Market: 58.3%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues de Ridder's finish rate - Market doesn't fully consider his 100% UFC finish rate
- • Overvalues Whittaker's experience - Physical disadvantages and recent submission loss not weighted enough
- • Ignores Chimaev blueprint - Similar physical advantages created problems for Whittaker
- • Submission market inefficiency - de Ridder's submission threat significantly underpriced
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Whittaker
35.3% of his wins | Superior striking volume
64.7% of his wins | Superior cardio + experience
No historical submission threat
🥋Outcome Distribution - de Ridder
66.7% of his wins | Elite submission game
33.3% of his wins | Recent KO of Bo Nickal
Perfect finish rate in UFC
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🥋Window of Opportunity - de Ridder
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum submission danger
- • Rounds 1-2: 66.7% of his finishes occur here
- • Early pressure: Must establish clinch control before Whittaker settles
- • Grappling transitions: Leverage size advantages for submissions
🎯Progressive Control - Whittaker
- • Round 3+: Experience and striking take control
- • Distance management: 40% higher output wears down de Ridder
- • Championship cardio: 23-fight experience shows late
- • Late finish: TKO opportunity in rounds 4-5
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Good confidence despite stylistic clash uncertainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Whittaker's proven championship experience
- • Superior striking volume and accuracy
- • Elite takedown defense (81%)
- • 23 vs 3 UFC fight experience edge
- • Recent strong performances pre-Chimaev
⚠️Risk Factors
- • de Ridder's perfect UFC finish rate
- • Significant physical disadvantages
- • Recent submission loss psychological impact
- • de Ridder's submission expertise
- • Chimaev blueprint success
🏁Executive Summary
This middleweight title eliminator represents a classic stylistic clash between proven championship experience and rising submission artistry. Whittaker brings superior striking volume, elite takedown defense, and vast experience advantages, while de Ridder presents unique submission threats, perfect finish rate, and significant physical advantages that mirror the Chimaev blueprint.
The betting market appears reasonably aligned with our model, though slight value exists on de Ridder's submission props. Our analysis suggests a 58% probability for Whittaker, based primarily on his superior experience, striking volume, and takedown defense capabilities against de Ridder's 42% chance anchored by his perfect finish rate and submission expertise.
Prediction: Whittaker's championship experience and superior takedown defense prove decisive, allowing him to avoid early submission attempts and control distance. While de Ridder presents significant early danger, Whittaker's technical superiority and cardio advantages prevail in a competitive decision victory.