Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos
Men's Featherweight Bout • UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Standard Cage)
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Muhammad Naimov
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Bogdan Grad | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-01 | Kaan Ofli | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Felipe Lima | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R3, 1:15) |
| 2024-02-24 | Erik Silva | W | TKO - Leg Injury (R1, 0:44) |
| 2023-10-21 | Nathaniel Wood | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Mairon Santos
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Sodiq Yusuff | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Francis Marshall | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-24 | Kaan Ofli | W | KO - Punch (R2, 1:30) |
| 2023-03-24 | Rafael Barbosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-04 | Dan Argueta | L | TKO - Punches and Elbows (R3, 2:40) |
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Legend & Notes
- • SLpM, TD15, Sub/15 are normalized to 0–100 for plotting.
- • Percent metrics (StrAcc, StrDef, TDAcc, TDDef) are raw %.
- • Tooltip shows true raw values with units.
- • Colors: Blue = Muhammad Naimov, Red = Mairon Santos.
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (52 vs 85) and Grappling Composite (64 vs 59). Balances striking effectiveness with grappling to measure core technical skills.
💪Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown attempts, and finish rate. Reflects engine to sustain pace in a large 30-foot Octagon.
🎯Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Provides a holistic view of each fighter combining skill and conditioning.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Muhammad Naimov Key Advantages
Naimov's wrestling pedigree shows in his relentless pressure and ability to chain takedown attempts. Against shorter opponents, he can use his physical strength to muscle through initial defenses and establish dominant positions. His 68% takedown defense also means he can survive counter attempts and continue grinding. In a 3-round fight, this pressure could accumulate control time and force Santos to work backward.
Against high-pace strikers like Santos, Naimov excels at converting chaotic scrambles into back-takes. His 1.69 takedowns per 15 minutes aren't just for control—they are entry points to his lethal submission chains. If the fight hits the mat, Santos is surviving, not competing.
At 31, Naimov brings championship-level conditioning and the ability to maintain pressure throughout all three rounds. His physical strength allows him to control scrambles and prevent Santos from establishing his preferred distance. The veteran's experience in championship fights means he understands how to pace himself and avoid the early exhaustion that can plague younger fighters.
His cardio score of 75 reflects his ability to sustain a high wrestling pace without fading. This becomes crucial in later rounds when Santos' volume striking could otherwise overwhelm a less conditioned opponent. Naimov's durability allows him to absorb early damage and turn the fight in his favor as rounds progress.
While not a volume puncher, Naimov's boxing is technically sound and he possesses devastating power. His career 62% finish rate includes 6 knockouts, showing he can end fights when opportunities arise. Against a fighter who likes to close distance and trade, Naimov could capitalize on timing counters and body work to slow Santos' momentum and create openings for his wrestling game.
His counter-punching becomes particularly dangerous when Santos overextends on his jab or commits to combinations. Naimov's ability to time these moments and land clean counters could disrupt Santos' rhythm and force him into more cautious striking, opening up takedown opportunities.
Naimov's wrestling background gives him excellent cage IQ. He understands how to cut off the cage, trap opponents in corners, and use fence positioning to his advantage. In the UFC Apex's large cage, this could allow him to herd Santos into unfavorable positions and limit his movement, turning the arena's size into an asset rather than a liability.
His ability to control the center and force opponents to the fence creates multiple advantages: it limits Santos' lateral movement, reduces his ability to circle away from takedown attempts, and creates opportunities for clinch entries. Once against the fence, Naimov's wrestling strength becomes even more pronounced, allowing him to control positioning and accumulate significant control time.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
72" reach disadvantage vs Santos' elite 66% strike defense creates high-risk stand-up exchanges. Clean counters could punish aggressive entries and slow wrestling momentum. Naimov must be disciplined in his approach, using feints and level changes to close distance without exposing himself to Santos' sharp jab and counter-punching.
Santos lands 3.53 strikes/min vs Naimov's 2.61, with 45% defense gap risking damage accumulation. Prolonged exchanges favor Santos' cardio and volume advantages over 15 minutes. If Naimov cannot secure takedowns early, he risks falling behind on the scorecards as Santos' volume compounds round by round.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish wrestling dominance in Round 1 with layered takedown attempts. Secure position, accumulate control time, and return to mat after stand-ups to minimize Santos' striking opportunities. The goal is to win the round decisively through control and position, forcing Santos to play catch-up in later rounds.
Hide takedown entries behind feints and jabs. Use head movement and timing to avoid Santos' counter-punching. Mix strikes to create openings without committing to extended stand-up exchanges. Body shots can slow Santos' movement and create opportunities for level changes, while uppercuts can catch Santos if he overextends on his jab.
🚀 Mairon Santos Key Advantages
Santos possesses one of the best defensive skill sets in the division, absorbing just 2.1 significant strikes per minute while maintaining perfect form. His 66% strike defense rate means he can weather early pressure storms and wait for opponents to gas out. At 25, he has the ring IQ to recognize when to engage and when to circle away, preserving his energy for when it matters most.
This defensive excellence allows Santos to control the pace of the fight without absorbing significant damage. His ability to slip punches and maintain distance frustrates aggressive opponents like Naimov, forcing them into desperate takedown attempts that become easier to defend as the fight progresses.
The 2-inch reach advantage is crucial in featherweight where fights often unfold at close range. Santos uses his length intelligently, keeping Naimov at bay with a sharp jab while landing clean counters when the Tajik wrestler closes distance. His jab work could control the pace and frustrate Naimov's entries, turning the larger cage into his personal workspace rather than a neutral zone.
In the 30-foot Octagon, this reach advantage becomes even more pronounced. Santos can maintain his preferred distance while forcing Naimov to cover more ground to close the gap, creating more opportunities for counters and making takedown entries more predictable and easier to defend.
Santos lands more than 3.5 significant strikes per minute with elite accuracy for the weight class. This volume, combined with his defensive acumen, creates a mathematical advantage that compounds over three rounds. Even if Naimov secures takedowns, Santos' output on the feet could build insurmountable leads in the scorecards before any ground work becomes decisive.
The combination of high volume and accuracy means Santos can outscore Naimov even in rounds where takedowns occur, as long as he maintains his striking output when standing. This creates a scenario where Naimov must not only secure takedowns but also maintain dominant positions and generate significant damage to overcome Santos' striking advantages.
At 25, Santos represents the future of Brazilian MMA with a 94% professional win rate and just one career loss. His athletic ceiling remains high, and his ability to improve mid-fight is evident in his UFC performances. Against a 31-year-old veteran, the generational edge could manifest in better recovery between rounds and sustained peak performance throughout the contest.
His youth provides advantages in recovery, reaction time, and the ability to maintain peak performance throughout all three rounds. While Naimov's experience is valuable, Santos' physical advantages could negate those benefits, especially as the fight progresses and fatigue becomes a factor.
Santos has demonstrated knockout power and precision timing in his UFC debut KO of Kaan Ofli. His counter-striking allows him to pick apart aggressive opponents without engaging in mutual exchanges. This disciplined approach could frustrate Naimov's pressure and create clean openings for decisive blows if the Tajik fighter gets reckless in his pursuit of takedowns.
The threat of counter-striking forces Naimov to be more cautious in his entries, potentially reducing the frequency and effectiveness of his takedown attempts. Santos' ability to land clean counters when Naimov commits to shots could not only score points but also create opportunities for fight-ending sequences.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Santos' untested ground game (0.0 TD/15min) becomes problematic in prolonged wrestling exchanges. Naimov's 68% TD defense and physical strength could force unfavorable positions if shots connect. Once on the mat, Santos lacks the offensive grappling tools to threaten submissions or create scrambles, making him vulnerable to Naimov's control and ground-and-pound.
Aggressive entries or scramble situations risk giving Naimov top position. Santos' 50% TD defense is untested in live action, creating uncertainty in close-range exchanges. If Naimov can create chaotic scrambles early, he could capitalize on Santos' inexperience in those positions and secure dominant positions that could swing rounds in his favor.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Control distance with sharp jab work, circle laterally in large cage, and capitalize on Naimov's aggressive entries with clean counter-punching. Use the 30-foot Octagon to maintain optimal striking range, forcing Naimov to cover more ground for takedown attempts. The jab serves both as an offensive weapon and a defensive tool to keep Naimov at bay.
Maintain high output (3.53 SLpM) to accumulate scoring leads. Force Naimov into desperate, low-percentage wrestling attempts while building insurmountable round advantages. Even if takedowns occur, maintaining striking volume when standing ensures scorecard advantages. The goal is to make Naimov's wrestling path mathematically insufficient to overcome the striking deficit.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Venue & Physical Dynamics Analysis
The UFC Apex's 30-foot Octagon represents a unique tactical landscape that could play differently for each fighter. Santos' 72-inch reach advantage becomes more pronounced in the larger space, allowing him to maintain distance and control the engagement with his jab while minimizing Naimov's ability to close the gap quickly. Naimov's wrestling-based approach requires getting inside to finish shots, but the extra space could force him into more committed entries that leave him vulnerable to counters.
The cage positioning dynamics favor Santos' lateral movement and footwork, while Naimov will need to use the corners strategically to trap his opponent against the fence where his wrestling strength can dominate. The larger cage also means more room for Santos to circle away from takedown attempts, making it harder for Naimov to cut off angles and force wrestling exchanges.
🎯Comprehensive Technical Breakdown
The technical disparity heavily favors Santos across multiple domains. His 3.53 significant strikes landed per minute with 46% accuracy creates a striking volume edge that's difficult to overcome, especially when combined with his elite 66% strike defense that minimizes damage absorption (just 2.1 SApM). Naimov's wrestling represents his primary path to victory, but his 1.69 TD/15 at 36% accuracy faces an uphill battle against Santos' 50% takedown defense.
The Tajik fighter's 68% TDD shows he can survive initial attempts, but Santos' untested nature on the ground (0.0 TD attempted) means Naimov could potentially establish dominant positions if he gets the Brazilian down. However, Santos' cardio score of 85 suggests he can maintain this defensive output for all three rounds, making it difficult for Naimov to wear him down through pressure alone.
⚡Critical Battle Areas & Round-by-Round Analysis
Round 1 will likely test Naimov's level-change timing against Santos' sprawl-first approach, with the Brazilian using his reach to punish any hesitation. If Naimov can establish early control, he might grind out position time, but Santos' defensive wall could prevent meaningful damage accumulation. Round 2 becomes pivotal - if Santos maintains distance and builds a striking lead, his volume could become overwhelming.
Round 3 favors experience and conditioning, where Naimov's veteran status might shine, but Santos' youth and 85 cardio score suggest he won't fade. The key inflection point comes when Santos decides whether to stand and trade or continue the disciplined approach that brought him a 16-fight win streak. Naimov's best chance lies in creating chaos early and capitalizing on any defensive lapses from Santos.
🔮Detailed Victory Scenarios & Fight Paths
Naimov Victory Path: Requires perfect execution of his wrestling game with multiple layered takedown attempts that overwhelm Santos' first-line defense. Once on top, he needs to avoid the Brazilian's potential submissions (despite 0.0 Sub/15) and accumulate enough control time to win rounds 2-0 or 3-0. A submission finish remains possible but represents the low-probability outlier given Santos' untested nature. Naimov must also avoid extended striking exchanges where Santos' volume and accuracy could build insurmountable leads.
Santos Victory Path: The higher-probability scenario involves maintaining striking dominance through volume and accuracy while using reach and defense to neutralize Naimov's wrestling threat. Decision victories (48% probability) come from out-landing Naimov across all three rounds, while KO/TKO opportunities (20% probability) arise from counters or attritional damage if Naimov presses forward recklessly. Submission finishes (2% probability) would require capitalizing on scramble positions, though this remains unlikely given his ground game limitations.
🏁Statistical Model Prediction & Confidence Analysis
Our comprehensive model, incorporating 100 hypothetical fight simulations, heavily favors Mairon Santos with a 70% win probability versus Naimov's 30%. The statistical edge stems from Santos' superior striking metrics (3.53 SLpM vs 2.61, 46% vs 41% accuracy, 66% vs 45% defense) that create a mathematical inevitability over 15 minutes. While Naimov's wrestling pedigree (1.69 TD/15, 68% TDD) provides a legitimate path to victory, his 36% TD accuracy against Santos' defensive excellence makes consistent success unlikely.
The model's 9/10 confidence rating reflects the overwhelming data alignment with Santos' advantages, though Naimov's veteran experience introduces enough uncertainty to prevent a perfect 10/10 score. Expected outcome: Santos by decision, with KO opportunities if Naimov abandons wrestling fundamentals. The primary risk factor remains Naimov's ability to secure early takedowns and control rounds through grappling, which could overcome the striking deficit if executed perfectly.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Value Opportunities
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Muhammad Naimov
💥Outcome Distribution - Mairon Santos
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and risk considerations
Confidence Level
Large StrDef gap and volume edge underpin the pick.
✅Supporting Factors
- • 66% StrDef, low damage intake
- • 2" reach edge with clean jab
- • Higher SLpM and accuracy at range
- • Naimov TD acc 36%—low-percentage volume shots
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Naimov sustained clinch/wrestling minutes
- • Optics if control without damage
- • Early momentum swings off counters/entries