Ibo Aslan vs Iwo Baraniewski
Men's Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan 2
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Ibo Aslan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Iwo Baraniewski
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Ibo Aslan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Billy Elekana | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-02-22 | Ion Cutelaba | L | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R1, 2:51) |
| 2024-10-26 | Raffael Cerqueira | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 0:51) |
| 2024-03-30 | Anton Turkalj | W | TKO - Punch (R3, 1:32) |
| 2023-08-15 | Paulo Renato Jr. | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 2:22) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Iwo Baraniewski
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-16 | Mahamed Aly | W | KO - Punches (R1, 0:20) |
| 2025-03-14 | Kamil Stachura | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R1, 3:02) |
| 2024-11-22 | Sylwester Borys | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:01) |
| 2024-09-28 | Cemey dos Santos | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:11) |
| 2024-01-27 | Miroslav Uchytil | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:54) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (76.0 vs 68.0) and Grappling Composite (60.0 vs 60.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🎯Stylistic Matchup Overview
🥊Ibo Aslan - Tall Pressure Striker
Aslan leverages his significant 3.5-inch reach advantage (77.5" vs 73") and 3-inch height advantage (6'3" vs 6'0") to control range with straight punches and calf kicks. His 7.84 SLpM output paired with 100% finish rate demonstrates explosive power that ends fights early. The Turkish striker pressures forward with heavy right hands and quick straight counters, typically overwhelming opponents before they can settle into rhythm. His defensive grappling is solid (83% TDDef) but remains untested at UFC level against high-level grapplers.
💥Iwo Baraniewski - Compact Pocket Finisher
Baraniewski attacks with compact, right-hand led exchanges in the pocket. His 12.00 SLpM (from limited UFC data) and 66% accuracy show precision striking, while his 100% finish rate across 6 pro wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 subs) demonstrates versatile finishing ability. The Polish prospect blasts hurt opponents and transitions to front-headlock submissions in scrambles. However, his 33% striking defense and lack of UFC experience create vulnerability against Aslan's length and power. Must close distance without absorbing counters.
⚔️Key Factors That Will Decide the Fight
- •First clean entry: If Aslan's first straight right lands before Baraniewski settles in, Aslan KO lanes open early.
- •Baraniewski's pocket defense: If he slips the first layer and counters hooks over Aslan's straight, Baraniewski's power translates.
- •Grappling scramble discipline: Any bad cage-wall get-up or head-outside shot defense can gift front-headlock/sub threats to Baraniewski.
- •Cardio management: If we get extended minutes, Aslan's pace tax shows; Baraniewski's unknown endurance is the wild card.
📋Ibo Aslan's Path to Victory
Outside-in 1-2, calf kick, deny pocket trades, force resets in space. Absolutely avoid extended grappling. Build minute edges, pick high-value counters when Baraniewski crashes the line. Use length to maintain range and time power shots.
📋Iwo Baraniewski's Path to Victory
Crowd the space, take away jab by stepping in behind feints and lead hooks. Counter over Aslan's right and crash into entries that can transition to snap-down/front-choke if Aslan drops level sloppily. Must get inside without taking heavy counters.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
🏆Ibo Aslan Win Methods
Primary path via early power shots
If fight goes distance via range control
Low probability given striking profile
💥Iwo Baraniewski Win Methods
Best lane via pocket exchanges
Front-headlock opportunities in scrambles
Requires surviving Aslan's power for 3 rounds
🏁Final Prediction
Pick: Ibo Aslan (KO/TKO) — early-mid R2 most common. In a 30-ft cage with a 4.5" reach edge and proven early power, Aslan lands first more often. Baraniewski is dangerous in the pocket and live for club-and-sub sequences, which keeps this near-coin-flip territory — but the UFC experience + cage size + length tilt our numbers to Aslan with 58% win probability.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate confidence - UFC experience edge but recent skid concerns
✅Supporting Factors
- • UFC-verified power output & accuracy
- • Significant reach and height advantages
- • Big cage extends range time for tall striker
- • 100% finish rate demonstrates fight-ending ability
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Aslan's recent 2-fight skid (R1 sub & decision loss)
- • Baraniewski's unknown cardio/durability at UFC pace
- • Pocket exchanges favor compact striker
- • Submission threat in scrambles remains live
🏁Executive Summary
This Light Heavyweight clash pits Aslan's UFC-proven reach and power against Baraniewski's explosive finishing ability in his promotional debut. Aslan's 4.5" reach advantage and UFC experience give him clear edges in range control and fight IQ, but his recent 2-loss skid and vulnerability to submissions create upset potential. Baraniewski's 100% finish rate (6-0) and versatile finishing (4 KO/TKO, 2 subs) demonstrate dangerous capabilities, though his defensive metrics (33% StrDef) and lack of UFC-level competition remain concerns. The 30-foot cage favors Aslan's length early, but Baraniewski's compact pocket power keeps this competitive. Prediction: Aslan by early KO/TKO (58% probability) if he establishes range, but Baraniewski's upset path via pocket exchanges or scramble submissions (42%) keeps variance elevated.