Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • 30ft Octagon (Large Cage)
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Edson Barboza
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jalin Turner
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Edson Barboza
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Drakkar Klose | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Lerone Murphy | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-14 | Sodiq Yusuff | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-04-15 | Billy Quarantillo | W | KO - Knee (R1, 2:37) |
| 2022-03-05 | Bryce Mitchell | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jalin Turner
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Ignacio Bahamondes | L | Submission - Triangle Choke (R1, 2:29) |
| 2024-04-13 | Renato Carneiro | L | KO/TKO - Elbows and Punches (R2, 4:11) |
| 2023-12-02 | Bobby Green | W | KO - Punches (R1, 2:49) |
| 2023-07-08 | Dan Hooker | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-04 | Mateusz Gamrot | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82.0 vs 78.0) and Grappling Composite (65.0 vs 80.0). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Edson Barboza Key Advantages
Barboza's 56% striking defense versus Turner's 42% represents a critical 33% improvement in damage mitigation. This defensive edge, combined with his 4.65 SApM vs 4.55 SApM near-parity in absorption, means he can navigate exchanges with better defensive reads. His elite evasive footwork, honed through decades of Muay Thai practice, allows him to slip, check, and counter Turner's volume without accumulating damage. This defensive efficiency becomes decisive in a 3-round fight where judges value clean over volume, and Barboza's ability to make Turner miss while landing his own counters can sway scorecards.
Barboza's legendary leg kicks—switch kicks, calf kicks, and body kicks—remain among the most devastating in UFC history. Against a tall, rangy opponent like Turner, these weapons can systematically break down mobility and stance integrity. The 30-foot cage provides ample space for Barboza to establish his kicking range and force Turner to respect distance, disrupting the younger fighter's rhythm. Barboza's ability to target Turner's lead leg (critical for his reach advantage) can compromise Turner's footwork and defensive positioning, creating opportunities for counters and making Turner increasingly predictable as the fight progresses.
With 28 UFC fights to Turner's 13, Barboza brings twice the octagon experience, including battles against the elite of the lightweight division. His 12:12 average fight duration and consistent deep-round performances demonstrate exceptional fight IQ and pacing awareness—critical in a 3-round bout where each minute matters. Barboza's veteran composure allows him to weather early storms, make mid-fight adjustments, and capitalize on opponent mistakes. Against a finish-or-bust fighter like Turner who has never won by decision, Barboza's ability to survive early danger and grind out rounds becomes a path to victory through scorecards.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Turner's 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantages allow him to control the center and fire straight punches and knees before Barboza's kicks land. His southpaw stance creates angles that can catch Barboza stepping in, and his 5.53 SLpM volume can overwhelm Barboza's defensive shell if the pace becomes too frantic. Turner's ability to time Barboza's kicks with counters—particularly step-in knees and left straights—represents his most dangerous path to victory, especially if Barboza's age-related timing has slightly declined.
While neither fighter is a wrestling specialist, Turner's 1.08 SubPer15 vs Barboza's 0.08 represents a massive 13.5x submission threat differential. If the fight goes to the ground through scrambles or trips, Turner's opportunistic submission game—particularly front headlocks and guillotines—could catch Barboza. The Brazilian's minimal sub offense (0.08) suggests he prioritizes standing exchanges, but any time on the mat favors Turner's dangerous finishing instincts, as evidenced by his 100% finish rate in wins.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Barboza should establish his preferred kicking range immediately, using calf kicks and body kicks to force Turner into defensive reactions. The 30-foot cage allows him to circle, reset, and maintain distance while systematically attacking Turner's legs and midsection. By making Turner respect the leg kicks, Barboza can force the taller fighter to commit to longer entries, creating opportunities for counters and keeping Turner from establishing his jab-heavy rhythm.
Given Turner's short average fight duration (6:56) and 100% finish rate, Barboza's path to victory becomes clearer as rounds progress. By surviving early danger and maintaining defensive discipline, Barboza can wear down Turner's explosiveness and capitalize on the younger fighter's lack of decision-fighting experience. His superior cardio (12:12 avg duration) and deep-round finishing history (50% of wins in R3) suggest he can push pace in round 3 when Turner's energy wanes.
🚀 Jalin Turner Key Advantages
Turner's 6'3" frame with 77-inch reach against Barboza's 5'11" and 75-inch reach creates significant range advantages. This length differential, combined with his massive 46-inch leg reach (vs Barboza's 41"), allows him to establish jabs, teeps, and straight lefts from distances where Barboza must commit fully to land. Turner's southpaw stance compounds this advantage, as his rear leg is furthest from Barboza's power kicks, and his straight left travels down the center before orthodox counters arrive. The size edge means Turner can control pace and entries, forcing Barboza to work harder to close distance.
Turner's perfect 100% finish rate (14 wins, 0 decisions) demonstrates an all-or-nothing approach that creates constant danger. His 71% KO/TKO rate and 29% submission rate mean he can finish from anywhere—standing or on the ground. This finishing instinct, combined with 50% of his wins coming in Round 1, creates early-round chaos that can overwhelm Barboza's defensive shell. Turner's ability to capitalize on single mistakes makes every exchange potentially fight-ending, forcing Barboza into ultra-conservative approaches that limit his own offense.
At 29 years old versus Barboza's 39, Turner brings peak physical attributes—explosiveness, recovery speed, and reflexes that can exploit Barboza's age-related decline. While Barboza's technique remains elite, the natural erosion of timing and reaction speed at nearly 40 means Turner's fast-twitch burst can catch him in transitions. Turner's higher output (5.53 SLpM vs 4.11) reflects this youth advantage, as he can sustain higher pace without immediate fatigue. This age gap becomes decisive in scrambles and late-fight exchanges where youthful explosion can override veteran craft.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Barboza's legendary leg kicks represent Turner's worst nightmare—systematic attacks on his lead leg can compromise his stance integrity and mobility, forcing him to fight on compromised wheels. Turner's 42% striking defense means he struggles to check or evade volume, and Barboza's precision leg attacks can quickly add up over three rounds. If Turner's movement becomes labored by Round 2, his reach advantages evaporate and he becomes a stationary target for Barboza's counters, turning his height into a liability rather than asset.
Turner's 0% decision win rate (14 wins, 0 decisions) exposes his biggest weakness—he has never been forced to win on the cards, meaning his pacing, game management, and point-fighting IQ are untested. If Barboza survives early danger and drags Turner into deep waters, the younger fighter enters uncharted territory where his explosiveness wanes and he lacks the technical polish to grind out rounds. Barboza's experience in decision battles (38% of wins) gives him a massive advantage in chess-match scenarios where finishing becomes unlikely.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Turner should press early, leveraging his youth and explosiveness to overwhelm Barboza before the veteran can establish rhythm. His 50% R1 finish rate suggests he thrives in chaotic opening minutes, and his length allows him to attack without overcommitting. By forcing Barboza to defend early combinations and intercept attempts, Turner can drain the older fighter's energy and test his chin with volume before defensive adjustments arrive. Early finishes are Turner's statistical bread and butter.
When Barboza commits to leg kicks, Turner should time step-in counters—straight lefts, knees, and front kicks—to make the Brazilian pay for every low attack. His 5.53 SLpM output allows him to maintain offensive pressure even while defending kicks, and his reach lets him land at distances where Barboza is recovering from kicks. By varying his responses (sometimes checking, sometimes countering, sometimes circling), Turner can make Barboza hesitant to commit fully to his signature weapons.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Early-Danger vs Late-Minutes Dynamic
This fight presents a clear timeline split: Turner's finishing equity peaks in the first 6-7 minutes (his historical sweet spot with 50% R1 wins), while Barboza's path to victory becomes clearer as rounds progress and Turner's explosiveness fades. The 30-foot cage initially favors Barboza's kicking range but becomes neutral territory once Turner establishes his jab. Turner's 100% finish rate creates constant early danger, but his 0% decision win rate means he has never been tested in deep waters—giving Barboza a massive experience edge if the fight reaches Round 3.
🎯Statistical Key Battles
Three critical differentials shape this matchup: (1) Defensive efficiency—Barboza's 56% StrDef vs Turner's 42% creates a 33% gap in damage mitigation; (2) Volume vs Precision—Turner's 5.53 SLpM outpaces Barboza's 4.11, but Barboza's superior defense makes clean-landing more valuable than volume; (3) Age & Cardio—Turner's youth (29) vs Barboza's veteran status (39) battles against experience differential (28 UFC fights vs 13). Turner's short fight duration (6:56 avg) suggests he has never been forced to dig deep, while Barboza's 12:12 average proves his ability to sustain pace over distance.
🧩Critical Moments to Watch
The fight's trajectory hinges on three inflection points: (1) First 90 seconds—Can Turner establish immediate pressure and catch Barboza cold, or will Barboza's veteran composure neutralize early chaos? (2) Mid-Round 2—If Turner hasn't finished by this point, watch for leg kick accumulation on his lead leg; compromised mobility turns his reach advantage into a liability. (3) Final minute of Round 3—If the fight reaches this point, Barboza's decision-fighting experience against Turner's untested deep-water cardio becomes decisive. Turner has never had to pace for 15 minutes, while Barboza has 9 career decision wins to reference.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely outcome is Jalin Turner by KO/TKO (38% probability), leveraging his youth, length, and finishing instinct to overwhelm Barboza before defensive adjustments arrive. Turner's R1 dominance (50% of wins) and explosive athleticism create early chaos that can exploit Barboza's age-related timing erosion. However, Barboza's upset lane centers on Decision (28%), achieved by surviving early danger and systematically breaking down Turner's legs with legendary kicks while banking late rounds. The Brazilian's superior cardio and decision-fighting IQ (9 career decision wins vs Turner's 0) make this path viable if he weathers the storm. Turner's all-or-nothing approach (100% finish rate) means every round is binary—finish or fade—giving Barboza clear survival targets: make it to Round 2, then Round 3, where veteran craft overtakes youthful explosion.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 38% | Fair: +163
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 53% | Fair: -113
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Barboza's defensive edge – 33% better StrDef creates decision equity market overlooks.
- • Overweights Turner's youth – Age advantage matters but 100% finish rate masks decision-fighting weakness.
- • Ignores experience gap – 2x octagon time gives Barboza adjustments Turner can't counter.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Edson Barboza
Primary path via defensive efficiency and cardio
Late-round leg kick accumulation
Minimal submission threat historically
💥Outcome Distribution - Jalin Turner
Best lane via early volume and counters
Opportunistic guillotines and front-headlocks
Requires sustained pace despite zero decision wins
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jalin Turner
- • First 6-7 minutes: Highest finishing equity window; 50% R1 win history.
- • Length control: Use jab + teeps to maintain distance before kicks accumulate.
- • Explosive bursts: Capitalize on youth advantage before Barboza settles.
🎯Progressive Victory - Edson Barboza
- • Survival first: Weather early storm; let Turner's explosiveness fade.
- • Leg kick investment: Systematic attacks on lead leg compromise mobility.
- • Late-round push: Exploit cardio edge and decision-fighting IQ.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Clear statistical edges but age/timeline variance moderate certainty
✅Supporting Factors
- • Turner's youth (29) and physical advantages (+4" height, +2" reach)
- • 100% finish rate creates constant early danger
- • Barboza's superior cardio (12:12 avg) and decision IQ (9 wins)
- • Clear early-danger vs late-minutes dynamic
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Barboza's age (39) creates timing erosion uncertainty
- • Turner's untested decision fighting (0 decision wins)
- • Both on losing streaks (Barboza L1, Turner L2)
🏁Executive Summary
Jalin Turner's youth, length, and explosive finishing instinct create immediate danger against an aging but technically elite Edson Barboza. The fight presents a clear timeline dynamic: Turner's equity peaks in the first 6-7 minutes (50% R1 finish rate), while Barboza's path to victory becomes clearer as rounds progress and Turner's explosiveness fades. Turner's 100% finish rate (14 wins, 0 decisions) demonstrates all-or-nothing aggression, but his complete lack of decision-fighting experience creates massive uncertainty if Barboza survives early danger. Barboza's superior defensive efficiency (56% StrDef vs 42%), legendary leg kicks, and 2x octagon experience (28 fights vs 13) provide clear survival and late-round pathways.
Prediction: Turner by KO/TKO most likely (38% probability) via early volume and counters exploiting age-related timing gaps; Barboza's upset lane is Decision (28%) through defensive discipline, leg kick accumulation, and superior cardio in deep waters. The outcome hinges on whether Barboza can weather the early storm and drag Turner into uncharted decision-fighting territory, where veteran craft overcomes youthful explosion. Turner's window is first 7 minutes; after that, odds shift progressively toward Barboza.