Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira
Men's Middleweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Marvin Vettori
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Brendan Allen | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-15 | Roman Dolidze | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-17 | Jared Cannonier | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Roman Dolidze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-03 | Robert Whittaker | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Brunno Ferreira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Jackson McVey | W | Submission - Armbar (R1, 3:35) |
| 2025-03-08 | Armen Petrosyan | W | Submission - Triangle Armbar (R2, 4:27) |
| 2024-10-26 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | L | Submission - Arm-Triangle Choke (R3, 3:14) |
| 2024-06-08 | Dustin Stoltzfus | W | KO/TKO - Spinning Back Elbow (R1, 4:51) |
| 2024-01-13 | Phil Hawes | W | KO/TKO - Punches (R1, 4:55) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Marvin Vettori Key Advantages
Vettori's wrestling superiority manifests through multiple dimensions: his 45% takedown accuracy nearly doubles Ferreira's 23%, while his 70% takedown defense provides a solid foundation against Ferreira's submission threats. This creates a systematic advantage where Vettori can chain wrestling sequences together—single leg attempts transitioning to double legs, or failed takedowns immediately converted to clinch control and fence work. The Italian's ability to maintain top control and prevent scrambles is particularly crucial against Ferreira's dangerous submission game, allowing him to accumulate significant control time while minimizing exposure to Ferreira's explosive counters.
Vettori's cardiovascular endurance represents perhaps his most decisive advantage in this matchup. With an average fight time of 17:25 and a striking rate of 4.54 SLpM, the Italian demonstrates exceptional stamina that allows him to maintain consistent pressure throughout all three rounds. This contrasts sharply with Ferreira's historical pattern of fading after the first round, where his explosive bursts become increasingly less frequent and effective. Vettori's ability to push a relentless pace creates cumulative pressure that compounds over time, forcing opponents into defensive positions where they must expend energy defending against constant takedown attempts and clinch work.
Vettori's physical attributes create a tactical foundation that supports his wrestling game plan. His 74" reach provides sufficient distance to set up takedown entries while maintaining defensive awareness, while his 57% striking defense demonstrates his ability to weather early exchanges without sustaining significant damage. This combination allows Vettori to manage the distance effectively, using his jab and straight punches to create openings for level changes while avoiding Ferreira's power shots. The Italian's defensive discipline is particularly important in the early rounds when Ferreira is at his most dangerous, allowing Vettori to survive the initial storm and implement his pressure-based game plan.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The most dangerous scenario for Vettori involves engaging in extended pocket exchanges during the early rounds, particularly within the first seven minutes when Ferreira's explosive power and striking accuracy (50%) are at their absolute peak. If Vettori attempts to establish his striking range before securing clinch control, he risks walking into Ferreira's devastating power shots. The Brazilian's shorter levers generate sudden collision power in close-quarters exchanges, and any willingness from Vettori to trade strikes rather than immediately implementing his wrestling could result in a knockout loss. This is especially problematic if Vettori becomes overconfident in his striking ability or attempts to prove a point by standing with the dangerous Brazilian striker, abandoning his systematic wrestling advantages in favor of a battle he's less equipped to win.
Another critical vulnerability for Vettori lies in his takedown execution against Ferreira's submission threats. Naked or poorly-timed takedown attempts create dangerous opportunities for Ferreira to secure front-headlock positions, where he can set up guillotine chokes or arm-in guillotines. These submission traps are particularly effective against wrestlers who overcommit to their entries without proper set-up or hand-fighting. If Vettori shoots reactive takedowns without establishing proper control or shoots from too far away, he risks getting caught in transitions where Ferreira's 0.76 submission attempts per 15 minutes become most dangerous. Any scrambles that develop from failed takedown attempts favor Ferreira's explosive athleticism and submission opportunism, potentially transforming Vettori's offensive wrestling advantage into a defensive nightmare where he must fight off dangerous submission attempts rather than controlling position.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Vettori's optimal strategy centers on implementing systematic fence chains that leverage his superior wrestling credentials while minimizing exposure to Ferreira's finishing threats. The Italian should initiate exchanges with jab and straight punch combinations to establish distance control and set up his wrestling entries, using his 74" reach advantage to probe Ferreira's defensive reactions. When Ferreira attempts to create separation or circle away from these striking exchanges, Vettori should immediately transition to takedown attempts—switching between single-leg and double-leg attacks based on Ferreira's defensive positioning. The key emphasis in the early rounds should be on accumulating control time rather than pursuing damage, as this approach allows Vettori to weather Ferreira's most dangerous period while establishing his dominance in the grappling exchanges. By riding out the first round and parts of the second through conservative ground control, Vettori can systematically drain Ferreira's explosive capabilities while building a commanding lead on the scorecards.
Once Vettori secures top position, his priority must be maintaining safe, controlled rides that prioritize positional dominance over aggressive ground-and-pound attempts. This conservative approach is crucial against Ferreira's dangerous submission game, as reckless ground strikes can create the scrambles and transitions where Ferreira's 0.76 submission attempts per 15 minutes become most threatening. Vettori should focus on mat returns whenever Ferreira attempts to stand, using his superior wrestling technique to immediately bring the fight back to the ground rather than allowing extended periods on the feet where Ferreira can reset and unleash his power striking. By maintaining this disciplined approach—controlling position, accumulating time, and avoiding unnecessary risks—Vettori can systematically build a decisive advantage on the scorecards while neutralizing Ferreira's finishing threats. This gameplan leverages Vettori's exceptional cardio to implement a grinding style that becomes increasingly dominant as Ferreira's explosiveness fades in the later rounds.
🚀 Brunno Ferreira Key Advantages
Ferreira's explosive power represents the most immediate threat to Vettori's game plan. With 9 knockout victories and a striking accuracy that peaks in the early rounds, the Brazilian possesses the kind of one-shot finishing ability that can dramatically alter the course of any fight. His shorter levers actually work to his advantage in close-quarters exchanges, generating sudden collision power that can catch opponents off-guard. This early-round power spike is particularly dangerous against Vettori's wrestling entries, where Ferreira can capitalize on any defensive lapses or overcommitted takedown attempts with devastating counter-strikes.
Ferreira's submission game adds another layer of complexity to his finishing arsenal. With 0.76 submission attempts per 15 minutes, the Brazilian demonstrates an active submission threat that can catch opponents in transition. His ability to quickly transition from striking to submission attempts—particularly armbars and triangles—creates dangerous scenarios where Vettori's wrestling entries could potentially backfire. This submission threat forces Vettori to be more cautious with his takedown attempts and ground control, as any lapse in technique could result in Ferreira securing a fight-ending submission rather than simply defending against ground strikes.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The most problematic scenario for Ferreira involves getting trapped in extended fence clinch sequences where Vettori can implement his superior wrestling control. When pinned against the cage under Vettori's wrist control and body lock pressure, Ferreira's explosive athleticism becomes neutralized, and he's forced to expend significant energy defending takedown attempts and fighting for separation. This static grappling warfare plays directly into Vettori's strengths while systematically draining Ferreira's already limited gas tank. Each minute spent defending in the clinch not only awards Vettori control time on the scorecards but also progressively diminishes Ferreira's ability to generate the explosive bursts that make his finishing threats so dangerous. As his cardio depletes, Ferreira's knockout power and submission attempts become less frequent and less threatening, creating a downward spiral where his defensive responsibilities compound while his offensive capabilities diminish.
Equally devastating for Ferreira is finding himself repeatedly mat-returned whenever he attempts to stand from bottom position. Vettori's superior wrestling technique and 70% takedown defense translate to an exceptional ability to maintain top control and immediately bring opponents back to the mat whenever they try to escape. This creates a frustrating cycle where Ferreira expends energy fighting to his feet, only to be immediately taken back down before he can reset his striking offense or create the separation needed for his finishing sequences. The psychological and physical toll of these repeated mat returns compounds over time, with Ferreira's scrambling ability and submission threats becoming progressively less dangerous as the fight extends into Round 2 and beyond. By eliminating the dynamic scrambles where Ferreira's explosive transitions could create submission opportunities, Vettori transforms the fight into a static grinding affair where Ferreira's finishing equity approaches zero while his defensive responsibilities become overwhelming.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Ferreira's optimal strategy revolves around setting distance traps that capitalize on Vettori's predictable wrestling entries. The Brazilian should employ strategic feints and footwork patterns designed to draw out Vettori's level changes, creating opportunities for sprawl-and-brawl counters where his explosive power becomes most dangerous. When Vettori shoots for takedowns, Ferreira can use his 54% takedown defense to sprawl, snap down on Vettori's head, and immediately counter with devastating power hooks and uppercuts as the Italian attempts to recover his posture. These counter-striking opportunities represent Ferreira's best path to a knockout finish, as they catch Vettori in vulnerable positions where his defensive awareness is compromised by his offensive commitment. The key is maintaining proper distance management—staying close enough to threaten Vettori with striking exchanges but far enough to react to takedown attempts with effective sprawls and counters. By making Vettori pay a significant price for every failed takedown attempt, Ferreira can potentially discourage the Italian's wrestling game while accumulating the damage needed for a finish.
A crucial component of Ferreira's gameplan involves implementing systematic body work during open-stance exchanges, targeting Vettori's midsection to compromise his cardiovascular engine and slow down his relentless takedown entries. Body shots are particularly effective against pressure wrestlers like Vettori, as they accumulate damage that progressively diminishes his ability to maintain constant forward pressure and execute explosive level changes. By investing in body attacks—particularly hooks and kicks to the liver and solar plexus—Ferreira can systematically attrit Vettori's exceptional gas tank, potentially creating opportunities for finishing sequences in the later rounds if the Italian's cardio becomes compromised. This body-work strategy also serves a defensive purpose, as it forces Vettori to respect Ferreira's striking and potentially become more hesitant with his takedown attempts. The key is balancing these body attacks with defensive awareness, ensuring that the commitment to body shots doesn't leave Ferreira vulnerable to immediate clinch entries or takedowns while he's recovering from his offensive strikes.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Matchup Dynamics
This middleweight clash presents a fascinating stylistic contrast between Marvin Vettori's methodical, cardio-intensive approach and Brunno Ferreira's explosive finishing ability. Vettori represents the archetypal European grinder—combining relentless pressure, superior wrestling technique, and exceptional cardiovascular endurance to systematically break down opponents over extended periods. His game plan revolves around creating cumulative pressure through takedown attempts, clinch control, and ground strikes that compound over time. In stark contrast, Ferreira embodies the Brazilian finishing machine, possessing the kind of early-round knockout power and submission threats that can abruptly end any fight. This creates a compelling narrative where Vettori's long-term strategy of wearing down opponents through sustained pressure directly conflicts with Ferreira's short-term goal of securing a spectacular finish before his cardio limitations become a factor.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a clear tactical advantage for Vettori in the control phases of combat. His superior takedown accuracy (45% vs 23%) and takedown defense (70% vs 54%) create a systematic wrestling advantage that allows him to dictate where the fight takes place. This is further enhanced by his better striking defense (57% vs 50%), which provides him with the defensive foundation to weather Ferreira's early-round onslaughts. Vettori's exceptional cardio rating (72 vs 24) represents perhaps the most decisive factor in this matchup, as it allows him to maintain his pressure-based approach throughout all three rounds while Ferreira's explosiveness naturally diminishes as the fight progresses. Ferreira's early danger comes from his combination of knockout power and slick submission attempts (0.76 subs/15), creating multiple finishing threats that can catch opponents in transition. However, the data suggests that these advantages are most potent in the early rounds, with momentum shifting dramatically in Vettori's favor as the fight extends beyond the first frame.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The critical battle areas in this matchup revolve around timing and positioning. The early minutes represent Ferreira's prime opportunity to secure a finish while his explosive power and submission threats are at their peak. This creates a dangerous window where any defensive lapse from Vettori could result in a fight-ending sequence. Vettori's path to victory lies in his ability to execute fence cycles and mat returns effectively—using his superior wrestling to suppress Ferreira's scrambling attempts and accumulate significant control time. The Italian must maintain constant pressure without overcommitting to takedown attempts that could leave him vulnerable to Ferreira's counters. Distance management becomes crucial: Vettori must enter safely using his jab and straight punches to set up level changes, while Ferreira must avoid getting trapped in extended clinch exchanges or bottom positions where Vettori can implement his grinding style. The Brazilian's success depends on creating separation and capitalizing on any openings with his power shots or submission attempts.
🏁Final Prediction
The analytical model strongly favors Marvin Vettori's path to victory through his superior defensive capabilities and exceptional cardiovascular endurance. If Vettori can successfully implement his clinch and wrestling cycles—utilizing his 45% takedown accuracy and 70% takedown defense to control the pace and positioning of the fight—he should emerge victorious via decision in the majority of scenarios. His ability to maintain consistent pressure while avoiding Ferreira's finishing threats creates a systematic advantage that compounds over the course of three rounds. However, Brunno Ferreira remains a live threat throughout the early portions of the fight, particularly in Round 1, where his explosive power and submission attempts are at their most dangerous. This necessitates disciplined entries from Vettori, who must balance his offensive pressure with defensive awareness to avoid getting caught in Ferreira's finishing sequences. The fight's outcome largely depends on whether Vettori can navigate the early danger zone and implement his grinding style, or if Ferreira can capitalize on the Italian's aggression with a spectacular finish.
💰 Betting Analysis: Market vs Model
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 48% | Market: varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 28% | Market: varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 61.4%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Marvin Vettori
Primary path given cardio and control
Opportunistic subs off prolonged control
Less likely; clinch attrition path
💥Outcome Distribution - Brunno Ferreira
Main finishing path in early rounds
Low likelihood in extended minutes
Quick traps off counters and scrambles
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Brunno Ferreira
- • First 7 minutes: Peak KO/sub threat
- • Counter windows: Sprawl/snap to hooks on entries
- • Level‑change feints: Draw shots, punish with power
- • Keep center: Avoid fence clinch and rides
🎯Progressive Dominance - Marvin Vettori
- • Fence cycles: Chain singles/doubles to mat returns
- • Top time: Prioritize control over damage early
- • Fatigue tax: Drain scrambles, win minutes late
- • Scorecards: Accumulate rounds for decision
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Multiple independent edges favor the favorite; early volatility persists
✅Supporting Factors
- • Superior wrestling accuracy and defense
- • Better strike defense and longer reach
- • Proven 3-round and 5-round cardio
- • Strong round-winning style
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Ferreira's early KO/submission spike
- • Naked shots risking guillotine traps
- • Momentum and recent results variance
- • Middleweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This compelling middleweight clash represents a classic stylistic collision between Marvin Vettori's methodical, cardio-intensive grinding approach and Brunno Ferreira's explosive finishing capabilities. The Italian's superior physical attributes—including his 74" reach advantage and 57% striking defense—combined with his systematic wrestling chains create a formidable foundation for controlling the pace and positioning of the fight. Vettori's exceptional cardiovascular endurance (72 vs 24) allows him to maintain relentless pressure throughout all three rounds, systematically wearing down opponents through takedown attempts, clinch control, and ground strikes that compound over time. In contrast, Ferreira's early-round danger stems from his explosive knockout power and slick submission attempts, creating multiple finishing threats that can abruptly end any fight before Vettori's cardio advantage becomes decisive.
The analytical model strongly favors Vettori's path to victory through his superior defensive capabilities and ability to implement his pressure-based game plan. His 45% takedown accuracy and 70% takedown defense provide him with the tools to dictate where the fight takes place, while his exceptional stamina ensures he can maintain this approach throughout the entire contest. However, Ferreira remains a legitimate threat throughout the early portions of the fight, particularly in Round 1, where his explosive power and submission attempts are at their most dangerous. This creates a compelling narrative where Vettori must navigate the early danger zone to implement his grinding style, while Ferreira must capitalize on any defensive lapses with spectacular finishes before his cardio limitations become a factor.
Prediction: Marvin Vettori by Decision emerges as the most likely outcome, with his superior defensive capabilities, exceptional cardio, and systematic wrestling approach providing him with the tools to control the pace and positioning of the fight over three rounds. However, Brunno Ferreira remains a live threat throughout the early portions of the contest, requiring disciplined entries from Vettori to avoid getting caught in the Brazilian's finishing sequences. The fight's outcome largely depends on whether Vettori can successfully navigate the early danger zone and implement his grinding style, or if Ferreira can capitalize on the Italian's aggression with a spectacular finish before his cardio advantages become decisive.