Fares Ziam vs Nazim Sadykhov
UFC 323 • 30ft Large Cage
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Fares Ziam
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Mike Davis | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Matt Frevola | W | KO/TKO - Knee to Head (R3, 2:59) |
| 2024-02-24 | Claudio Puelles | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-22 | Jai Herbert | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-03 | Michal Figlak | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Nazim Sadykhov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-21 | Nikolas Motta | W | KO/TKO - Punches to Head (R2, 4:17) |
| 2025-02-15 | Ismael Bonfim | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R1, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-11 | Viacheslav Borshchev | D | Draw - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Terrance McKinney | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R2, 1:07) |
| 2023-02-18 | Evan Elder | W | TKO - Doctor Stoppage (R3, 0:38) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite and Grappling Composite. Captures combined offensive and defensive efficiency across phases.
💪 Cardio Score
Weighs average fight duration, pace (SLpM), takedown volume, and sustained output. Indicates ability to maintain performance deep into fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical and Cardio scores. Provides a quick snapshot of complete capability.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of SLpM, StrAcc, StrDef, and inverse SApM. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offense and defense.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Built from TD15, TDAcc, TDDef, and Sub/15. Evaluates takedown offense, defense, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Fares Ziam Key Advantages
Elite striking defense (65%) paired with minimal damage absorption (1.62 SApM) creates a sustainable minute-winning profile. In the spacious 30ft cage, these defensive advantages compound—Ziam can control distance, deny clean entries, and accumulate scoring minutes without paying heavy offensive tolls.
Height (6'1" vs 5'10") and reach (75" vs 69") provide the ideal platform for a jab–teep–low kick tempo. Ziam can intercept linear entries with knees, use frames to break clinch attempts, and reset along the center logo. These physical advantages are magnified in the 30ft cage where additional space allows for effective circling and angle creation.
Strong cardio score (82/100) indicates Ziam can maintain consistent output and technical execution across three full rounds. His 13:21 average fight duration and ability to sustain pace without fading give him a clear advantage in the later minutes, where disciplined footwork and sustained defensive awareness become increasingly valuable.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Nazim Sadykhov successfully cuts the cage early and forces Ziam into sustained pocket trades, the defensive advantage erodes rapidly. Sadykhov's power volume (5.55 SLpM) and ability to chain TDs off the fence create dirty minutes that obscure Ziam's cleaner work, potentially swaying close rounds through perceived aggression and octagon control. Extended fence sequences favor Sadykhov's freestyle wrestling background.
Prolonged clinch exchanges and TD chain attempts erode Ziam's rhythm and preferred distance-management game. Even without successful takedowns, sustained fence pressure scores octagon control and disrupts the clean technical sequences Ziam needs to bank minutes. Multiple rounds with extended cage wrestling tilt scorecards toward perceived aggression over cleaner outside work.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish center-cage positioning early and use the 30ft space to circle away from pressure. Maintain stick-and-move discipline with jab–teep–low kick sequences to accumulate clean scoring volume. When Sadykhov advances, use footwork to create angles and reset along the logo rather than engaging in prolonged pocket trades. Prioritize clean breaks after brief exchanges to reset distance and deny sustained clinch opportunities.
Avoid extended exchanges when Nazim Sadykhov surges volume, particularly in the pocket where his power and finishing ability become most dangerous. Use intercepting knees on linear entries, frames to break clinch initiation, and lateral movement to deny cage-cutting geometry. Bank minutes through clean technical work rather than attempting to match Sadykhov's aggressive output—defensive efficiency wins rounds.
Nazim Sadykhov Key Advantages
Aggressive striking output (5.55 SLpM—nearly double Ziam's 2.85) paired with a 91% finish rate creates legitimate early knockout danger. Sadykhov excels in hot starts with visible damage accumulation in R1–R2, leveraging power and volume when distance is closed. His recent performances show he can hurt opponents early and carry finishing threat throughout exchanges.
Efficient takedown accuracy (56% vs 41%) and freestyle wrestling background enable Sadykhov to blend level changes with striking combinations effectively. By mixing takedown entries, he can muddy Ziam's defensive reads, open lanes for power shots, and create opportunistic submission windows during scrambles—his recent submission of McKinney demonstrates real finishing threat on the mat.
Sadykhov's pressure-oriented style is most effective when cutting cage exits, forcing pocket exchanges, and initiating fence clinches where he can blend takedowns with dirty boxing. His ability to step across the lead leg and close distance disrupts range fighters' rhythm, and his recent wins over Motta and Bonfim showcase how pressure can overwhelm technical strikers when exits are denied.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If the fight remains at extended range where Ziam can dictate tempo through jabs, teeps, and low kicks, Sadykhov's high damage absorption rate (5.89 SApM) accumulates rapidly without compensating offensive returns. His raw striking volume becomes less effective when clean entries are systematically denied, and the damage differential tilts scorecards toward Ziam's cleaner, lower-risk technical work across three rounds.
Brief takedown attempts without extended top control or cage dominance score incrementally under modern judging criteria. If Ziam successfully defends, sprawls, or quickly returns to standing, these TD attempts consume energy without banking meaningful minutes. Clean outside striking work accumulates more value than fleeting fence sequences, meaning Sadykhov must secure sustained control positions to make his wrestling investment pay dividends on the scorecards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Aggressively cut off Ziam's circling paths by stepping across the lead leg and angling toward the fence. Force pocket exchanges where power volume (5.55 SLpM) and finishing ability create maximum danger. Pressure the fence consistently to initiate clinch sequences where takedowns can be blended with dirty boxing. Mix level changes behind striking combinations to muddy defensive reads and prevent Ziam from establishing comfortable range rhythms.
Maximize finishing equity in the first 7–10 minutes when power, speed, and pressure advantages are at their peak. Generate visible damage early through volume striking and aggressive entries to build momentum and influence judges. Create chaos and deny clean resets—every second at extended range favors Ziam's defensive profile, so sustained pressure and dirty minutes become essential to disrupt his technical game plan and create late-round finishing opportunities.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🧭Matchup Dynamics
In the spacious 30ft cage, range control becomes the fundamental battleground. Fares Ziam leverages his physical advantages—height (6'1" vs 5'10") and a 6" reach edge (75" vs 69")—to establish a methodical jab–teep–low kick tempo that accumulates scoring volume while minimizing risk. His superior defensive metrics (65% StrDef, 1.62 SApM) create a minute-winning platform ideal for three-round fights. Conversely, Nazim Sadykhov thrives when geometry is compressed: his aggressive volume (5.55 SLpM), fence-driven pressure, and opportunistic takedowns (56% TDAcc) become most dangerous when he can cut exits, force pocket exchanges, and initiate clinch wrestling sequences. The cage's extra space favors Ziam's circling and resets; if distance is preserved through the early rounds, minutes accumulate in his favor. However, if Sadykhov successfully cuts angles early and sustains cage control, clinch time and dirty boxing can tilt scorecards and create finishing windows through accumulated damage or late submissions.
🧮Technical Breakdown
Defense emerges as the defining separator in this matchup. Fares Ziam's elite striking defense (65% vs 50%) combined with minimal damage absorption (1.62 SApM vs 5.89) creates a textbook minutes-based pathway to victory. His kickboxing background and measured output (2.85 SLpM) prioritize clean scoring over risky volume, allowing him to win rounds without sustaining cumulative damage. In contrast, Nazim Sadykhov brings explosive offensive metrics—5.55 SLpM output and 56% takedown accuracy—paired with genuine finishing ability across methods (8 KO/TKO wins, 2 submissions). However, his defensive vulnerabilities (50% StrDef, 5.89 SApM) mean he pays a price for his aggression, particularly at range where Ziam's counters and intercepting knees become effective. Critically, Sadykhov's wrestling volume (1.29 TD/15min) is efficient but not overwhelming; without securing extended top control or cage dominance, these takedown attempts score incrementally rather than decisively. Over three rounds, clean outside work at range typically outscores brief fence sequences on modern judging criteria, giving Ziam's defensive efficiency an edge in close-minute scenarios.
⚡Key Battle Areas
Early rounds (R1–R2): Nazim Sadykhov holds maximum finishing equity during this window, where his power volume (5.55 SLpM) and early knockout history create genuine danger. He must aggressively close distance, blend level changes off striking combinations to muddy defensive reads, and generate visible damage that builds momentum and influences judges. His path depends on denying Ziam clean resets and forcing prolonged fence or pocket exchanges. Middle phase (R2–R3): Footwork discipline and stance-kick execution from Fares Ziam become critical. By maintaining center-cage positioning, using teeps and low kicks to manage distance, and avoiding extended pocket trades when Sadykhov surges volume, Ziam can bank minutes through cleaner technical work. His ability to intercept entries with knees and use frames to break clinch attempts prevents Sadykhov from establishing sustained control. Late round (R3): Cardio differentials (82/100 vs 61/100) favor Fares Ziam for sustained minute-winning sequences and technical consistency. However, Nazim Sadykhov remains live and dangerous—fence breaks, scramble moments, and explosive bursts can still produce late finishes or swing close rounds. The final five minutes will test whether Ziam's defensive discipline holds or Sadykhov's relentless pressure finally breaks through.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Model projections only. Market odds will populate when available.
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Model Highest-Probability Angles
Fares Ziam by Decision
Nazim Sadykhov by KO/TKO
Over 2.5 Rounds
ℹ️Market Notes
- • Market odds pending. Compare these model fair prices once books post lines.
- • Focus on method splits: Fares Ziam Decision (46%), Nazim Sadykhov KO/TKO (27%).
- • Totals lean Over 2.5 (66%) in a 30ft cage with defensive minutes for Fares Ziam.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Fares Ziam
💥Outcome Distribution - Nazim Sadykhov
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Nazim Sadykhov
- • First 7–10 minutes: highest KO equity
- • Cut exits; mix takedowns off the fence
- • Keep chaos; deny resets at range
🎯Progressive Dominance - Fares Ziam
- • Win minutes with jab/teep and footwork
- • Intercept level changes with knees/frames
- • Prioritize clean scoring, avoid pocket brawls
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid edge for Fares Ziam via defense and range control
✅Supporting Factors
- • Elite striking defense (65%) and low SApM (1.62)
- • 6" reach advantage suits large cage
- • Strong late-minute profile (cardio 82/100)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Nazim Sadykhov's early KO threat (27% route)
- • Fence pressure and chain wrestling mixing
- • Lightweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Fares Ziam possesses the sustainable minute-winning profile and structural advantages that favor extended technical battles in large cages. His elite defensive metrics (65% StrDef, 1.62 SApM), superior cardio (82/100), and physical dimensions (6" reach advantage, 3" height edge) create multiple pathways to accumulate scoring rounds through disciplined range management and clean technical output. The model projects him as a 62% favorite, with Decision (46% probability) representing his primary route and opportunistic late finishes (14% KO/TKO) serving as secondary outcomes when defensive discipline produces offensive openings.
Conversely, Nazim Sadykhov brings genuine early knockout danger (27% KO/TKO route) through explosive power volume (5.55 SLpM), pressure fighting, and a 91% career finish rate. His window of maximum opportunity exists in the first 7–10 minutes, where aggressive cage cutting, blended takedown entries, and sustained pocket exchanges can disrupt Ziam's rhythm and create visible damage. However, his defensive vulnerabilities (50% StrDef, 5.89 SApM) and lower cardio score (61/100) mean his path narrows as rounds progress and clean technical minutes accumulate against him.
Prediction: Fares Ziam by Decision (Unanimous or Split) via sustained range control and minute accumulation. Alternative pathway: late KO/TKO (R3) if defensive discipline creates counter-striking opportunities against a fading Sadykhov. Live hedge opportunity: Nazim Sadykhov by KO/TKO Round 1 (+350 estimated fair value) captures his early finishing danger and represents asymmetric risk exposure for Ziam if cage cutting succeeds immediately.