Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • 30ft Octagon
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Maycee Barber
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-09 | Katlyn Cerminara | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Amanda Ribas | W | TKO - Punches and Elbows (R2, 3:42) |
| 2023-03-25 | Andrea Lee | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-02 | Jessica Eye | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-23 | Montana De La Rosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Karine Silva
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Dione Barbosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Viviane Araujo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ariane Lipski da Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Maryna Moroz | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 4:59) |
| 2023-06-03 | Ketlen Souza | W | Submission - Kneebar (R1, 1:45) |
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Legend & Notes
- • SLpM, TD15, Sub/15 are normalized to 0–100 for plotting.
- • Percent metrics (StrAcc, StrDef, TDAcc, TDDef) are raw %.
- • Tooltip shows true raw values with units.
- • Colors: Blue = Maycee Barber, Red = Karine Silva.
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Maycee Barber Key Advantages
Barber's 4.7 SLpM at 53% accuracy dominates Silva's 2.73 at 38%, producing a massive volume and precision advantage. This gap means Barber lands cleaner, more frequently, and can dictate the pace of striking exchanges while maintaining defensive responsibility. Over three rounds, this efficiency differential accumulates into clear scoring rounds.
Barber's 12:10 average fight duration and consistent Round 3 performance demonstrate championship-level cardio. In the spacious 30-foot cage, she can manage distance, reset after exchanges, and maintain pace throughout the full 15 minutes. Her late-round strength often becomes decisive when opponents fade, turning close fights into clear victories.
Silva's catastrophic 11% takedown defense is the matchup's defining liability. Barber doesn't need elite wrestling volume—her clinch trips, body locks, and positional control will repeatedly put Silva on her back. Once there, Barber's heavy top pressure, ground-and-pound, and positional awareness accumulate control time and damage, banking rounds even without finish attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Silva's guillotine threat is real—67% of her UFC wins come via submission. If Barber shoots head-outside takedowns or rushes forward carelessly into clinches, Silva can secure front-headlock control and chain to chokes or back-takes. This is the fight's biggest danger zone for Barber, requiring disciplined entries and head positioning at all times.
In prolonged scramble exchanges, Silva's opportunistic submission game thrives. Her kneebars, ankle locks, and transitional back-takes emerge from chaos. If Barber gets drawn into extended grappling sequences without establishing clear positional control, she risks giving Silva the scramble opportunities that have ended fights throughout Silva's career.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish range with jabs and teeps, use footwork to circle in the 30-foot cage, then time safe clinch entries when Silva presses forward. Once in the clinch, chain trips and body locks to exploit her 11% TDD. On top, accumulate control time and ground-and-pound while maintaining safe positioning to score rounds without unnecessary risk.
Execute head-inside takedowns exclusively to deny guillotine openings. On top, maintain strong posture with elbows tight, control Silva's wrists to prevent arm drags and back-takes, and avoid leaving the neck exposed during transitions. If caught in scrambles, immediately establish position rather than chasing submissions—patience wins this fight.
🚀 Karine Silva Key Advantages
Silva's 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes represent genuine finishing danger from multiple positions. Her front-headlock guillotines, opportunistic leg entanglements, and rapid back-takes in scrambles can end fights in seconds. Most of her UFC wins (67%) come via submission, proving this isn't theoretical—she converts when given opportunities.
Silva's historical fight data shows half her UFC wins finish in Round 1, with guillotines and kneebars her primary weapons. The early rounds are her best window—before Barber's volume and cardio accumulate, and before fatigue limits Silva's explosive transitions. If she doesn't capitalize early, her finishing probability drops dramatically.
Silva's 2-inch reach advantage (67" vs 65") and slightly longer frame provide critical tools for her gameplan. She can jab from distance to draw reactions, then shoot or close to clinch when Barber counters. The extra reach also aids in securing collar ties and front-headlock positions—the launching pad for her guillotine attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Silva can't force grappling exchanges and the fight stays at striking range for extended periods, Barber's 72% volume advantage (4.7 vs 2.73 SLpM) and 15-point accuracy superiority will accumulate damaging optics on the scorecards. Silva's loss to Araujo followed this exact blueprint—neutralized grappling leading to a clear striking deficit.
The spacious 30-foot cage works against Silva's pressure-heavy gameplan. After failed clinch attempts or scrambles, the extra space allows Barber to reset to range and deny Silva's ability to chain grappling sequences together. This forces Silva to repeatedly close distance, burning energy and limiting her submission windows as the fight progresses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance immediately from the opening bell, using reach and feints to draw Barber into clinch range. Secure collar ties and front-headlock positions, threatening guillotines to make Barber hesitant and defensive. The first 10 minutes are critical—half of Silva's UFC wins finish in Round 1, capitalizing on early aggression before opponents establish rhythm.
Avoid prolonged striking exchanges—Silva's 38% accuracy and 2.73 SLpM can't compete with Barber's output. Instead, create dynamic scrambles and transitions where her opportunistic submission game thrives. Attack kneebars and ankle locks from bottom, hunt back-takes from failed takedown defenses, and prioritize finishing over positional control. Every scramble is a potential finish.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Matchup Dynamics
This three-round women's flyweight bout in a spacious 30-foot cage sets up a classic striker-versus-submission threat with clear stylistic contrasts. Maycee Barber enters with superior striking output (4.7 vs 2.73 SLpM) and accuracy (53% vs 38%), proven late-round consistency across 11 UFC fights, and reliable top control anchored by solid positional awareness. Karine Silva brings early submission danger (1.9 attempts per 15 minutes) and opportunistic chain grappling, aided by a slight reach edge (67" vs 65") that helps her force clinches and secure front-headlock positions. The spacious cage favors range management and resets, subtly tilting accumulated minutes toward Barber if the fight extends beyond the early chaos. Barber's six-fight win streak demonstrates consistent execution, while Silva's recent loss to Araujo exposed vulnerabilities when opponents neutralize her submission entries and force extended striking exchanges.
🎯Technical Breakdown
On the feet, Barber's 4.7 SLpM at 53% accuracy decisively outpaces Silva's 2.73 at 38%, producing efficient, sustainable offense while keeping damage intake manageable (2.9 SApM). This isn't marginal—it's a 72% volume advantage paired with 15-point accuracy superiority, meaning Barber lands nearly twice as many clean strikes per minute. The grappling story reveals a critical split: Silva's 1.9 subs/15 signal genuine finishing danger when she secures head control, scrambles, or leg entanglements—her 67% UFC finish rate via submission proves she converts opportunities. However, her catastrophic 11% takedown defense creates a persistent, exploitable liability. Barber doesn't need elite offensive wrestling (her 1.44 TD/15 is modest)—simple clinch trips, body locks, and positional pressure will repeatedly put Silva on her back, where Barber's heavy top game and ground-and-pound accumulate control time and damage. Over extended minutes, Barber's superior cardio (12:10 avg duration) and accumulated striking/grappling optics outpace Silva's narrow submission windows, especially as fatigue limits Silva's explosive transitions.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will be decided across three critical battle zones. Early (Rounds 1-2): Silva's highest-probability path is immediate forward pressure into front-headlock and leg-lock sequences, capitalizing on her historical 50% Round 1 finish rate before Barber's volume accumulates. Her guillotines, kneebars, and rapid back-takes from scrambles represent genuine finishing threats when Barber enters carelessly or over-commits to ground-and-pound. Middle/Late (Round 2-3): Barber's range striking, clinch trips, and top control become increasingly decisive, especially in the 30-foot cage where resets are frequent and Silva's cardio fades. Barber's 56% of wins occurring in Round 3 demonstrates her ability to pour it on late. The grappling exchanges become pivotal: if Barber maintains strong posture on entries, controls Silva's wrists, and avoids extended scramble chaos, minutes and accumulated optics carry her toward a clear decision victory. Conversely, if Silva locks a clean head-arm control, guillotine grip, or knee-entanglement in the first 10 minutes, the submission threat spikes dramatically and can end the fight in seconds. The cage size subtly favors Barber's ability to reset after exchanges and deny Silva's relentless clinch pressure.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Method-of-Victory (Fair)
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Maycee Barber
💥Outcome Distribution - Karine Silva
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and risk considerations
Confidence Level
Strong lean to Barber due to minutes and TDD gap vs Silva
✅Supporting Factors
- • Striking accuracy and output gap
- • Large-cage range management
- • Top control vs 11% TDD
- • Strong late-round consistency
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Silva's early submission danger
- • Barber's occasional defensive lapses on entries
- • Flyweight volatility