Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Maycee Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Karine Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Maycee Barber
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-09 | Katlyn Cerminara | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-24 | Amanda Ribas | W | TKO - Punches and Elbows (R2, 3:42) |
| 2023-03-25 | Andrea Lee | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-02 | Jessica Eye | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-04-23 | Montana De La Rosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Karine Silva
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-16 | Dione Barbosa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-16 | Viviane Araujo | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-27 | Ariane Lipski da Silva | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-19 | Maryna Moroz | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R1, 4:59) |
| 2023-06-03 | Ketlen Souza | W | Submission - Kneebar (R1, 1:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (82 vs 58) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 72). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish sustainability. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Maycee Barber Key Advantages
Barber's 4.7 SLpM at 53% accuracy dominates Silva's 2.73 at 38%, producing a massive volume and precision advantage. This gap means Barber lands cleaner, more frequently, and can dictate the pace of striking exchanges while maintaining defensive responsibility. Over three rounds, this efficiency differential accumulates into clear scoring rounds.
Barber's 12:10 average fight duration and consistent Round 3 performance demonstrate championship-level cardio. In the spacious 30-foot cage, she can manage distance, reset after exchanges, and maintain pace throughout the full 15 minutes. Her late-round strength often becomes decisive when opponents fade, turning close fights into clear victories.
Silva's catastrophic 11% takedown defense is the matchup's defining liability. Barber doesn't need elite wrestling volume—her clinch trips, body locks, and positional control will repeatedly put Silva on her back. Once there, Barber's heavy top pressure, ground-and-pound, and positional awareness accumulate control time and damage, banking rounds even without finish attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Silva's guillotine threat is real—67% of her UFC wins come via submission. If Barber shoots head-outside takedowns or rushes forward carelessly into clinches, Silva can secure front-headlock control and chain to chokes or back-takes. This is the fight's biggest danger zone for Barber, requiring disciplined entries and head positioning at all times.
In prolonged scramble exchanges, Silva's opportunistic submission game thrives. Her kneebars, ankle locks, and transitional back-takes emerge from chaos. If Barber gets drawn into extended grappling sequences without establishing clear positional control, she risks giving Silva the scramble opportunities that have ended fights throughout Silva's career.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish range with jabs and teeps, use footwork to circle in the 30-foot cage, then time safe clinch entries when Silva presses forward. Once in the clinch, chain trips and body locks to exploit her 11% TDD. On top, accumulate control time and ground-and-pound while maintaining safe positioning to score rounds without unnecessary risk.
Execute head-inside takedowns exclusively to deny guillotine openings. On top, maintain strong posture with elbows tight, control Silva's wrists to prevent arm drags and back-takes, and avoid leaving the neck exposed during transitions. If caught in scrambles, immediately establish position rather than chasing submissions—patience wins this fight.
🚀 Karine Silva Key Advantages
Silva's 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes represent genuine finishing danger from multiple positions. Her front-headlock guillotines, opportunistic leg entanglements, and rapid back-takes in scrambles can end fights in seconds. Most of her UFC wins (67%) come via submission, proving this isn't theoretical—she converts when given opportunities.
Silva's historical fight data shows half her UFC wins finish in Round 1, with guillotines and kneebars her primary weapons. The early rounds are her best window—before Barber's volume and cardio accumulate, and before fatigue limits Silva's explosive transitions. If she doesn't capitalize early, her finishing probability drops dramatically.
Silva's 2-inch reach advantage (67" vs 65") and slightly longer frame provide critical tools for her gameplan. She can jab from distance to draw reactions, then shoot or close to clinch when Barber counters. The extra reach also aids in securing collar ties and front-headlock positions—the launching pad for her guillotine attempts.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Silva can't force grappling exchanges and the fight stays at striking range for extended periods, Barber's 72% volume advantage (4.7 vs 2.73 SLpM) and 15-point accuracy superiority will accumulate damaging optics on the scorecards. Silva's loss to Araujo followed this exact blueprint—neutralized grappling leading to a clear striking deficit.
The spacious 30-foot cage works against Silva's pressure-heavy gameplan. After failed clinch attempts or scrambles, the extra space allows Barber to reset to range and deny Silva's ability to chain grappling sequences together. This forces Silva to repeatedly close distance, burning energy and limiting her submission windows as the fight progresses.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance immediately from the opening bell, using reach and feints to draw Barber into clinch range. Secure collar ties and front-headlock positions, threatening guillotines to make Barber hesitant and defensive. The first 10 minutes are critical—half of Silva's UFC wins finish in Round 1, capitalizing on early aggression before opponents establish rhythm.
Avoid prolonged striking exchanges—Silva's 38% accuracy and 2.73 SLpM can't compete with Barber's output. Instead, create dynamic scrambles and transitions where her opportunistic submission game thrives. Attack kneebars and ankle locks from bottom, hunt back-takes from failed takedown defenses, and prioritize finishing over positional control. Every scramble is a potential finish.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
🧠Detailed Analysis Summary
📌Matchup Dynamics
This three-round women's flyweight bout in a spacious 30-foot cage sets up a classic striker-versus-submission threat with clear stylistic contrasts. Maycee Barber enters with superior striking output (4.7 vs 2.73 SLpM) and accuracy (53% vs 38%), proven late-round consistency across 11 UFC fights, and reliable top control anchored by solid positional awareness.Karine Silva brings early submission danger (1.9 attempts per 15 minutes) and opportunistic chain grappling, aided by a slight reach edge (67" vs 65") that helps her force clinches and secure front-headlock positions. The spacious cage favors range management and resets, subtly tilting accumulated minutes toward Barber if the fight extends beyond the early chaos. Barber's six-fight win streak demonstrates consistent execution, while Silva's recent loss to Araujo exposed vulnerabilities when opponents neutralize her submission entries and force extended striking exchanges.
🧮Technical Breakdown
On the feet, Barber's 4.7 SLpM at 53% accuracy decisively outpaces Silva's 2.73 at 38%, producing efficient, sustainable offense while keeping damage intake manageable (2.9 SApM). This isn't marginal—it's a 72% volume advantage paired with 15-point accuracy superiority, meaning Barber lands nearly twice as many clean strikes per minute. The grappling story reveals a critical split: Silva's 1.9 subs/15 signal genuine finishing danger when she secures head control, scrambles, or leg entanglements—her 67% UFC finish rate via submission proves she converts opportunities. However, her catastrophic 11% takedown defense creates a persistent, exploitable liability. Barber doesn't need elite offensive wrestling (her 1.44 TD/15 is modest)—simple clinch trips, body locks, and positional pressure will repeatedly put Silva on her back, where Barber's heavy top game and ground-and-pound accumulate control time and damage. Over extended minutes, Barber's superior cardio (12:10 avg duration) and accumulated striking/grappling optics outpace Silva's narrow submission windows, especially as fatigue limits Silva's explosive transitions.
🎯Key Battle Areas
The fight will be decided across three critical battle zones. Early (Rounds 1-2): Silva's highest-probability path is immediate forward pressure into front-headlock and leg-lock sequences, capitalizing on her historical 50% Round 1 finish rate before Barber's volume accumulates. Her guillotines, kneebars, and rapid back-takes from scrambles represent genuine finishing threats when Barber enters carelessly or over-commits to ground-and-pound. Middle/Late (Round 2-3): Barber's range striking, clinch trips, and top control become increasingly decisive, especially in the 30-foot cage where resets are frequent and Silva's cardio fades. Barber's 56% of wins occurring in Round 3 demonstrates her ability to pour it on late. The grappling exchanges become pivotal: if Barber maintains strong posture on entries, controls Silva's wrists, and avoids extended scramble chaos, minutes and accumulated optics carry her toward a clear decision victory. Conversely, if Silva locks a clean head-arm control, guillotine grip, or knee-entanglement in the first 10 minutes, the submission threat spikes dramatically and can end the fight in seconds. The cage size subtly favors Barber's ability to reset after exchanges and deny Silva's relentless clinch pressure.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44% | Market: ~33–38%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~18–20%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 57% | Market: 57%
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Maycee Barber
Primary path via minutes and control
Ground-and-pound or elbows in clinch
Low, but not impossible
💥Outcome Distribution - Karine Silva
Front-headlock series, kneebars, or back-takes
If she controls enough grappling sequences
Low probability outcome
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Karine Silva
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest submission conversion window before Barber establishes control
- • Round 1 critical: 50% of UFC wins finish in R1—must capitalize early with explosive entries
- • Front-headlock priority: Force guillotine and bakazi variations off Barber's level changes
- • Scramble-centric approach: Create dynamic chaos rather than accepting static guard positions
- • Leg attack opportunities: Kneebars and ankle locks from bottom when top control fails
🎯Progressive Dominance - Maycee Barber
- • Progressive accumulation: Volume and control time compound across all three rounds
- • Round 3 dominance: 56% of wins occur in R3—cardio and late-round strength peak
- • Clinch control pathway: Exploit 11% TDD repeatedly with trips and body locks
- • Striking efficiency: 4.7 SLpM at 53% accuracy steadily wins exchanges and optics
- • Cage management: 30-foot space enables resets and denies Silva's pressure chains
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong lean to Barber due to minutes and TDD gap vs Silva
✅Supporting Factors
- • Striking accuracy and output gap
- • Large-cage range management
- • Top control vs 11% TDD
- • Strong late-round consistency
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Silva's early submission danger
- • Barber's occasional defensive lapses on entries
- • Flyweight volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This women's flyweight clash represents a clear stylistic mismatch where Barber's striking efficiency (4.7 SLpM at 53% accuracy), minutes control, and proven late-round durability match up favorably against Silva's submission-centric offense, especially in a spacious 30-foot cage that enables resets and distance management. The defining fault line is Silva's catastrophic 11% takedown defense versus Barber's willingness and ability to bank control time through clinch trips and top pressure. While Silva's 1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes and 67% UFC finish rate via submission represent genuine finishing danger—particularly in the early rounds where half her UFC wins occur in Round 1—the statistical advantages overwhelmingly favor Barber's path to victory through accumulated volume, positional control, and superior cardio over three full rounds.
Barber's six-fight win streak demonstrates consistent execution of her gameplan across diverse opponents, including victories over credentialed wrestlers and submission threats. Her ability to maintain pace throughout 12+ minute fights, combined with her 81.8% UFC win rate, suggests a fighter operating at the peak of her powers. Silva's recent unanimous decision loss to Viviane Araujo exposed critical vulnerabilities: when opponents neutralize her submission entries and force extended striking exchanges, her limited offensive output (2.73 SLpM) and poor accuracy (38%) leave her unable to compete on the scorecards. Araujo's blueprint—solid takedown defense combined with superior striking volume—is precisely what Barber brings to this matchup, but with even greater striking efficiency and accumulated experience.
Prediction: Barber by Unanimous Decision is the most likely outcome (44% probability), with her late-round dominance (56% of her wins in Round 3) becoming increasingly pronounced as Silva's explosive transitions fade and accumulated damage/control time tilt scorecards decisively. Silva's best path remains an early submission finish (22% probability)—likely via guillotine or kneebar in the first 10 minutes before Barber's superior cardio and volume establish control. Our 63-37 split reflects high confidence in the stylistic advantages, with method ladders aligned to each fighter's historical finishing patterns: Barber's decision-heavy profile (56% of UFC wins) versus Silva's submission-dominant threat (67% of UFC wins via tap). The 30-foot cage environment subtly amplifies Barber's edges, making this a technically sound pick backed by comprehensive statistical analysis.