Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Control Grappler
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Power Striker
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Grant Dawson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Diego Ferreira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Rafa Garcia | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R2, 1:42) |
| 2024-06-01 | Joe Solecki | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Bobby Green | L | KO - Punches (R1, 0:33) |
| 2023-07-01 | Damir Ismagulov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Manuel Torres
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Drew Dober | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:45) |
| 2024-09-14 | Ignacio Bahamondes | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:02) |
| 2024-02-24 | Chris Duncan | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 1:46) |
| 2023-06-17 | Nikolas Motta | W | KO - Elbow (R1, 1:50) |
| 2022-05-14 | Frank Camacho | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:27) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58 vs 68) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 78). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏁Match Dynamics
This lightweight clash represents the quintessential grinder versus finisher dynamic that defines many of the sport's most compelling matchups. Dawson's systematic approach to chain wrestling and top control creates a methodical pressure that accumulates damage and drains opponent energy over time. His 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, combined with a 1.13 submission rate, means every grappling exchange carries genuine finishing potential. Conversely, Torres brings explosive striking power with his 7.87 significant strikes per minute and 60% accuracy, making the opening exchanges inherently dangerous for any opponent who can't manage distance effectively.
🎯Technical Contrast
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating tactical chess match between Dawson's grappling dominance and Torres' striking superiority. Dawson's 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes against Torres' 89% takedown defense creates a compelling clash of wills, where persistence meets elite defensive fundamentals. The striking metrics tell an equally compelling story: Torres' 7.87 strikes per minute with 60% accuracy versus Dawson's more conservative 3.2 strikes per minute at 53% accuracy suggests Torres can control the pace when the fight remains upright. The large cage environment provides both advantages—space for Torres to operate his striking game, but also more room for Dawson to set up his takedown entries and control sequences.
⚡Key Battlegrounds
The fight will be determined in three critical phases that favor different fighters. The opening 3-5 minutes represent Torres' optimal window, where his fresh energy and explosive power can overwhelm Dawson's early takedown attempts. During this period, Torres' 89% takedown defense is most effective, and his striking volume can accumulate significant damage. However, if Dawson survives this initial onslaught and establishes his grappling rhythm, the control dynamics shift dramatically. Dawson's cardio advantage becomes apparent in rounds 2-3, where his 11:21 average fight duration demonstrates his ability to maintain pressure and control. The clinch exchanges and cage work become increasingly important as the fight progresses, with Dawson's wrestling background providing him systematic advantages in controlling space and dictating the pace of engagement.
🔮Outcome Lens
The most probable victory scenarios reflect each fighter's core strengths and historical patterns. Dawson's path to victory typically follows one of two routes: a methodical decision victory through sustained control and ground strikes, or a submission finish when opponents tire and make defensive mistakes. His 1.13 submission attempts per 15 minutes create constant finishing threats, particularly in the later rounds when cardio becomes a factor. Torres' victory scenarios are more time-sensitive but equally dangerous—an early knockout through his explosive striking power, or a late-round finish if he can maintain distance and avoid extended grappling exchanges. His 7.87 striking output means he can overwhelm opponents with volume, but his success largely depends on keeping the fight upright and utilizing his 89% takedown defense to create separation when Dawson attempts to close distance.
💰 Betting Analysis: Market vs Model
Live best-available odds (BetOnline preferred) with implied probabilities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 32% | Market: N/A%
GOOD VALUE
Path aligns with control sequences; look for plus-money props
SLIGHT VALUE
Control-heavy path boosts decision likelihood
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Grant Dawson
Primary finisher path via back-takes and RNC
Control-heavy minutes bank rounds
Ground-and-pound accumulation less common
💥Outcome Distribution - Manuel Torres
Most likely path via early boxing flurries
Low likelihood in control-heavy matchup
Opportunistic only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Manuel Torres
- • First 3–5 minutes: Peak power and accuracy
- • R1: Highest KO/TKO likelihood
- • Distance control: Maintain range and counter shots
- • Avoid: Lengthy clinch or mat sequences
🎯Progressive Dominance - Grant Dawson
- • Round 2+: Chain wrestling and rides accumulate
- • Control: Clinch and mat returns bank minutes
- • Submission threat: Back-take sequences late
- • Decision path: Most common outcome
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence in control path
✅Supporting Factors
- • Chain wrestling volume (3.87 TD/15)
- • Submission threat (1.13 Sub/15)
- • Cardio edge over three rounds
- • Durable, recovers after early storms
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Manuel Torres KO power (28% outcome path)
- • 89% takedown defense first layer
- • +1.5" reach; large cage aids movement
- • Early volatility in R1
🏁Executive Summary
This lightweight matchup represents a fascinating clash of fighting philosophies that has defined countless memorable encounters in the sport. Dawson's systematic approach to chain wrestling and positional control creates a methodical pressure system that accumulates damage and drains opponent energy over extended periods. His 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, combined with elite submission threat (1.13 attempts per 15 minutes), means every grappling exchange carries genuine finishing potential. Conversely, Torres brings the explosive finishing power that makes lightweight one of the most volatile divisions in MMA. His 7.87 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy, supported by an elite 89% takedown defense, creates a perfect storm for early finishes when opponents can't manage distance effectively.
The three-round format creates distinct strategic advantages for each fighter. Dawson's cardio advantage, evidenced by his 11:21 average fight duration, suggests he can maintain his grappling pressure throughout all three rounds while Torres' explosive output may become less sustainable as the fight progresses. However, Torres' early finishing threat cannot be underestimated—his power and accuracy make the opening exchanges inherently dangerous for any opponent who can't establish grappling control immediately. The large cage environment provides both fighters with advantages: space for Torres to operate his striking game and set up his counters, but also more room for Dawson to set up his takedown entries and control sequences.
Prediction: Dawson's systematic approach and cardio advantage give him the edge in a competitive three-round battle, with his control game and submission threat creating multiple paths to victory. His ability to bank control minutes and maintain pressure throughout all three rounds should prove decisive against Torres' early finishing power. However, Torres remains live for an early knockout given his explosive striking and elite takedown defense, making this an intriguing betting opportunity where the underdog carries genuine finishing potential in the opening exchanges.