Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres
Men's Lightweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • 30ft Octagon
Explore Detailed Fighter Profiles
Click on either the fighter's name or profile image for each fighter to access comprehensive UFC statistics including striking metrics, grappling data, clinch performance, complete fight history, offensive & defensive analytics, and round-by-round breakdowns.
Grant Dawson
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Diego Ferreira | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-12 | Rafa Garcia | W | TKO - Elbows and Punches (R2, 1:42) |
| 2024-06-01 | Joe Solecki | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-10-07 | Bobby Green | L | KO - Punches (R1, 0:33) |
| 2023-07-01 | Damir Ismagulov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Manuel Torres
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Drew Dober | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 1:45) |
| 2024-09-14 | Ignacio Bahamondes | L | TKO - Punches (R1, 4:02) |
| 2024-02-24 | Chris Duncan | W | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 1:46) |
| 2023-06-17 | Nikolas Motta | W | KO - Elbow (R1, 1:50) |
| 2022-05-14 | Frank Camacho | W | TKO - Punches (R1, 3:27) |
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
Legend & Notes
- • SLpM, TD15, Sub/15 are normalized to 0–100 for plotting.
- • Percent metrics (StrAcc, StrDef, TDAcc, TDDef) are raw %.
- • Tooltip shows true raw values with units.
- • Colors: Blue = Grant Dawson, Red = Manuel Torres.
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Grant Dawson Key Advantages
Dawson's systematic approach to chain wrestling and top control creates a methodical pressure that accumulates damage and drains opponent energy over time. His 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes mean every grappling exchange carries genuine positional dominance potential.
Dawson's cardio advantage becomes apparent in rounds 2-3, where his 11:21 average fight duration demonstrates his ability to maintain pressure and control. This allows him to grind out wins against explosive opponents who fade late.
With 13 submission victories on his record, Dawson possesses elite back-taking and choking ability. His constant threat forces opponents to defend submissions rather than scramble to their feet, often opening up striking opportunities on the ground.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Torres' explosive power in Round 1 is Dawson's biggest danger. Getting caught coming in for a takedown or during an early exchange could lead to a quick night, as evidenced by Torres' high R1 finish rate.
If Torres utilizes his +1.5" reach advantage and the large cage to maintain distance, Dawson could struggle to enter grappling range without absorbing significant damage from Torres' 7.87 SLpM volume.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Aggressively close the gap to negate Torres' striking range. Force clinch situations against the fence immediately to wear on Torres' arms and reduce his explosive power potential.
Utilize relentless chain wrestling attempts. Even if the first shot is stuffed, immediately transition to the next attempt or clinch control to force Torres to work defensively and expend his limited gas tank.
🚀 Manuel Torres Key Advantages
Torres brings elite striking output at 7.87 SLpM combined with a 60% accuracy rate. His compact power combinations land clean and carry genuine knockout threat, making every clean exchange a potential fight-ending moment, especially early.
With an elite 89% takedown defense, Torres has the first-layer defense to stifle initial shots. If he can keep the fight standing, his significant striking advantage takes over, forcing Dawson into desperate attempts.
Torres enjoys a reach advantage that allows him to strike from distance and land counters as Dawson enters. Coupled with the large cage, this geometric edge is crucial for his "stick and move" strategy to avoid the clinch.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
If Dawson establishes top control or prolonged fence rides, Torres' power is neutralized. Extended grappling exchanges will drain his explosive muscle fibers, significantly reducing his threat level in later rounds.
With an average fight time of just 2:30, Torres is unproven in long, grueling matches. If the fight enters the third round after a pace-heavy grappling affair, his output and defense will likely falter.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Prioritize takedown defense above all else. Utilize strong hips and underhooks to stay standing, then punish Dawson on the break. Keep the fight in open space where his striking volume reigns supreme.
Start fast and aggressive. Capitalize on the fresh start to land heavy shots before sweat makes Dawson slippery or before Dawson can settle into a grappling rhythm. Aim for a R1 finish.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Macro Dynamics
This lightweight clash represents the quintessential grinder versus finisher dynamic that defines many of the sport's most compelling matchups. Dawson's systematic approach to chain wrestling and top control creates a methodical pressure that accumulates damage and drains opponent energy over time. His 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, combined with a 1.13 submission rate, means every grappling exchange carries genuine finishing potential. Conversely, Torres brings explosive striking power with his 7.87 significant strikes per minute and 60% accuracy, making the opening exchanges inherently dangerous for any opponent who can't manage distance effectively.
🎯Technical Contrast
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating tactical chess match between Dawson's grappling dominance and Torres' striking superiority. Dawson's 3.87 takedowns per 15 minutes against Torres' 89% takedown defense creates a compelling clash of wills, where persistence meets elite defensive fundamentals. The striking metrics tell an equally compelling story: Torres' 7.87 strikes per minute with 60% accuracy versus Dawson's more conservative 3.2 strikes per minute at 53% accuracy suggests Torres can control the pace when the fight remains upright. The large cage environment provides both advantages—space for Torres to operate his striking game, but also more room for Dawson to set up his takedown entries and control sequences.
⚡Fight Pacing and Round Evolution
The fight will be determined in three critical phases that favor different fighters. The opening 3-5 minutes represent Torres' optimal window, where his fresh energy and explosive power can overwhelm Dawson's early takedown attempts. During this period, Torres' 89% takedown defense is most effective, and his striking volume can accumulate significant damage. However, if Dawson survives this initial onslaught and establishes his grappling rhythm, the control dynamics shift dramatically. Dawson's cardio advantage becomes apparent in rounds 2-3, where his 11:21 average fight duration demonstrates his ability to maintain pressure and control. The clinch exchanges and cage work become increasingly important as the fight progresses, with Dawson's wrestling background providing him systematic advantages in controlling space and dictating the pace of engagement.
🏁Prediction
Dawson's systematic approach and cardio advantage give him the edge in a competitive three-round battle, with his control game and submission threat creating multiple paths to victory. His ability to bank control minutes and maintain pressure throughout all three rounds should prove decisive against Torres' early finishing power. However, Torres remains live for an early knockout given his explosive striking and elite takedown defense, making this an intriguing betting opportunity where the underdog carries genuine finishing potential in the opening exchanges. We favor Dawson to weather the early storm and dominate the later rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
Method-of-Victory (Fair)
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Grant Dawson
💥Outcome Distribution - Manuel Torres
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and risk considerations
Confidence Level
High confidence in Dawson's control path over 3 rounds.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Chain wrestling volume (3.87 TD/15)
- • Submission threat (1.13 Sub/15)
- • Cardio edge over three rounds
- • Durable, recovers after early storms
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Torres KO power (28% outcome path)
- • 89% takedown defense first layer
- • +1.5" reach; large cage aids movement
- • Early volatility in R1