Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
UFC Bantamweight Championship • UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Saturday, December 6, 2025 • T-Mobile Arena
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Merab Dvalishvili
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Petr Yan
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Merab Dvalishvili
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Cory Sandhagen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Sean O'Malley | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R3, 4:42) |
| 2025-01-18 | Umar Nurmagomedov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Sean O'Malley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Henry Cejudo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Petr Yan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Marcus McGhee | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Song Yadong | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-22 | Sean O'Malley | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated from striking and grappling composites. Merab leads in grappling efficiency (94.0), while Yan holds the edge in striking precision and defense.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on pace sustainability and output in championship rounds. Merab's relentless pressure and high volume earn him an elite rating (96/100).
🎯 Overall Rating
Average of Technical and Cardio scores. Merab's cardio advantage pushes his overall rating slightly higher despite close technical parity.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
📊 Technical Radar Comparison
📊 Metrics Legend
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Merab Dvalishvili Key Advantages
Relentless entry/re-entry pressure with rides and mat returns forces prolonged control phases and banks minutes. Merab's chain wrestling creates cumulative fatigue and control time that compounds across five rounds, with takedown success rate peaking in later rounds as opponents tire.
Low absorption rate from pace control in clinch/wrestle exchanges blunts opponent striking edges. By spending extended periods in grappling positions, Merab limits high-damage exchanges and forces opponents to fight in positions where their striking accuracy drops significantly.
Sustains high output pace deep into championship fights without fade. Tempo advantage compounds control time over 25 minutes. Merab's conditioning allows him to outlast opponents in scrambles and maintain offensive output when others slow down in rounds 4-5.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Yan's precision and counters rise if prolonged at range without clinch/wrestle layers. Extended open-space exchanges allow Yan to establish timing and land clean combinations.
Entry timing risks counters if shots lack cover; Yan punishes through the middle. Naked takedown entries create opportunities for devastating knee strikes and uppercuts.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stack entries, run hips to fence, rack ride time, prioritize control over ground strikes. Close distance early and often, using jabs and feints to set up level changes.
Enter behind jabs/feints to reduce intercept counters; chain to re-shots when first attempt stalls. Mix high-low feints and striking combos before shooting to keep Yan guessing.
🧩 Petr Yan Key Advantages
Efficient boxing with tight guard; punishes naked entries with compact counters. Yan's technical striking and defensive positioning make him extremely difficult to hit cleanly in open space.
Proved vs elite; forces clean setups and second layers to complete attempts. Yan's high takedown defense forces opponents to work harder for each successful takedown.
Controls pocket entries with stance switches and high-precision counters. Yan's footwork and distance management allow him to dictate the pace of striking exchanges when he can keep the fight at range.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged fence sequences drain output and concede control minutes. Each extended grappling sequence gives Merab opportunities to accumulate control time that judges score favorably.
Second and third takedown layers break down initial defenses and create ride time. Merab's chain wrestling means defending one shot doesn't end the sequence.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain long-range boxing, punish naked entries with knee/uppercut, circle off fence. Use lateral movement and pivots to prevent Merab from establishing sustained pressure.
Use frames to break clinch, sprawl-and-brawl to keep phases short and clean. When Merab secures ties, immediately fight grips and create separation.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Pace Dynamics
In the 30-foot cage, range initially favors Yan's clean counters and lateral movement, but Merab's relentless entry frequency and re-shot chains compress space and transform exchanges into prolonged clinch/wrestle phases that accumulate control time. Over 25 minutes, Merab's ability to repeatedly force grappling exchanges creates a cumulative pressure effect.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Yan leads in striking accuracy and defense on the feet, creating a clear striking edge. However, Merab's massive takedown volume advantage and ability to maintain pressure reshapes where the fight takes place. The championship format amplifies Merab's advantages: his elite cardio means he can sustain high-output wrestling deep into rounds 4-5.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Entry Coverage vs Intercept Counters: Merab must mix his entry timing to avoid Yan's counters.Fence Control vs Quick Breaks: Yan's ability to escape determines if rounds stay competitive.Late-Round Tempo: Rounds 4-5 favor Merab's sustained pace.
🏁Final Prediction
Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision or late Submission (R4-R5). Primary path: Accumulate control time across 5 rounds, with dominance increasing in championship frames. Yan's path to victory requires winning early rounds through striking superiority while successfully defending takedowns.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 57.4% | Market: Varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 13.2% | Market: Varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~77% | Market: Varies
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dvalishvili
Primary path via control minutes
Occasional attritional stoppage
Opportunistic chokes from rides
💥Outcome Distribution - Yan
Primary finishing lane via counters
Rounds won at range when entries stuffed
Minimal historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via control minutes; KO volatility remains from counters.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher TD volume and control profile
- • Excellent damage mitigation (low SApM)
- • Cardio to sustain pace and re-shots
- • Proven against elite strikers
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Yan's intercept counters on entries
- • Early round volatility
- • Judging leaning toward visible damage
- • Large cage favors range moments
🏁Executive Summary
Merab Dvalishvili owns a robust minute-winning profile anchored by chain wrestling (6.40 TD/15min vs 1.58), elite cardio (96/100), and proven ability to maintain pressure across full championship distance. His recent 20-takedown performance against Sandhagen validated his capacity to execute this gameplan over 25 minutes against elite opposition. Petr Yan counters with superior striking precision (54% accuracy vs 42%) and legitimate finishing power through technical counter-striking, creating early volatility windows particularly in rounds 1-2.
Over five championship rounds in the large cage, control time and cumulative wrestling pressure are projected to outweigh sporadic clean counters. Merab's ability to sustain his pace without degradation through rounds 4-5—when Yan's takedown defense historically weakens—creates a compounding advantage. While Yan possesses the technical striking to win individual rounds decisively, banking 3+ rounds while defending constant wrestling volume over 25 minutes presents a monumental defensive wrestling challenge.
Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision or late Submission (R4-R5). Primary path: Accumulate control time across 5 rounds, with dominance increasing in championship frames. Live hedge opportunity: Petr Yan by KO/TKO (R1-R2) at plus-money—counter-striking danger is real but window narrows significantly after early rounds.