Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
Men's Bantamweight Bout • UFC 323
Saturday, December 6, 2025
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Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Merab Dvalishvili
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Cory Sandhagen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-06-07 | Sean O'Malley | W | Submission - Guillotine Choke (R3, 4:42) |
| 2025-01-18 | Umar Nurmagomedov | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-14 | Sean O'Malley | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Henry Cejudo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Petr Yan
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-26 | Marcus McGhee | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-11-23 | Deiveson Figueiredo | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Song Yadong | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-11 | Merab Dvalishvili | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-10-22 | Sean O'Malley | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (94 vs 60). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Merab Dvalishvili Key Advantages
Relentless entry/re-entry pressure with rides and mat returns forces prolonged control phases and banks minutes. Merab's 20-takedown performance against Sandhagen demonstrated his ability to overwhelm even elite takedown defense over 25 minutes. His chain wrestling creates cumulative fatigue and control time that compounds across five rounds, with takedown success rate peaking in later rounds as opponents tire.
Low absorption rate from pace control in clinch/wrestle exchanges blunts opponent striking edges. By spending extended periods in grappling positions, Merab limits high-damage exchanges and forces opponents to fight in positions where their striking accuracy drops significantly. His ability to control location for over 10 minutes per 25-minute fight means Yan's cleaner boxing gets fewer opportunities to accumulate meaningful damage over five championship rounds.
Sustains 4.33 SLpM + 6.4 TD pace deep into championship fights without fade. Tempo advantage compounds control time over 25 minutes. Merab has never shown fatigue in five-round affairs, maintaining pressure through all five rounds against O'Malley, Umar, and Sandhagen. His conditioning allows him to outlast opponents in scrambles and maintain offensive output when others slow down in rounds 4-5, creating a progressive advantage as the fight extends into championship rounds.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Yan's precision and counters rise if prolonged at range without clinch/wrestle layers. Extended open-space exchanges allow Yan to establish timing and land clean combinations. If Merab engages in prolonged boxing sequences, Yan's superior striking accuracy (54% vs 42%) and cleaner footwork give him windows to bank striking rounds, particularly in the first two rounds before cumulative takedown fatigue sets in for Yan.
Entry timing risks counters if shots lack cover; Yan punishes through the middle. Naked takedown entries create opportunities for devastating knee strikes and uppercuts. Yan's Muay Thai background makes him particularly dangerous in these moments, and a single clean counter could shift momentum or end the fight. Merab must use feints and striking setups rather than predictable single-shot entries to avoid these high-damage exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Stack entries, run hips to fence, rack ride time, prioritize control over ground strikes. Close distance early and often, using jabs and feints to set up level changes. When first attempt stalls, immediately chain to second and third shots rather than resetting to range. Once secured, maintain top position and accumulate control time rather than forcing finishes. Over 25 minutes, this approach banks rounds through positional dominance while conserving energy for sustained pressure.
Enter behind jabs/feints to reduce intercept counters; chain to re-shots when first attempt stalls. Mix high-low feints and striking combos before shooting to keep Yan guessing and prevent him from loading up counters. Varying entry timing and angles across five rounds prevents pattern recognition and maintains takedown success rates even as Yan adjusts. This strategic variation is crucial in championship fights where opponents have more time to download tendencies.
🚀 Petr Yan Key Advantages
Efficient boxing with tight guard; punishes naked entries with compact counters. Yan's technical striking and defensive positioning make him extremely difficult to hit cleanly in open space. His patient counter-striking style thrives when opponents overextend, and his ability to land clean while avoiding damage creates scoring edges in pure striking exchanges. Over five rounds, maintaining range control allows him to accumulate clean significant strikes while limiting return fire.
Proved vs elite; forces clean setups and second layers to complete attempts. Yan's 85% takedown defense has been tested against high-level grapplers, requiring opponents to work harder for each successful takedown. While Merab's volume may eventually break through, Yan's initial defensive frames and hip positioning force extra effort on each attempt, which can create windows for counter-strikes and slow Merab's momentum in the early rounds of this five-round championship bout.
Controls pocket entries with stance switches and high-precision counters. Yan's footwork and distance management allow him to dictate the pace of striking exchanges when he can keep the fight at range. His ability to land the cleaner, more impactful strikes gives him a path to winning individual moments even if Merab controls more cumulative time. In a five-round championship fight, banking 2-3 rounds through superior striking is a viable path if he can avoid extended grappling sequences in those frames.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Prolonged fence sequences drain output and concede control minutes. Each extended grappling sequence gives Merab opportunities to accumulate control time that judges score favorably. Over 25 minutes, multiple prolonged grappling exchanges can accumulate to 10+ minutes of control time, making it nearly impossible to win on the scorecards even if Yan lands the cleaner strikes in open space. Avoiding extended clinch battles becomes progressively more difficult as fatigue sets in during rounds 4-5.
Second and third takedown layers break down initial defenses and create ride time. Yan's 85% TDD is strong, but Merab's chain wrestling means defending one shot doesn't end the sequence. As the fight progresses through five rounds, defending multiple waves of takedown attempts per round becomes increasingly taxing, and defensive success rates typically decline. This cumulative effect is Merab's core strategic advantage in championship-distance fights.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Maintain long-range boxing, punish naked entries with knee/uppercut, circle off fence. Use lateral movement and pivots to prevent Merab from establishing sustained pressure sequences. Land clean combinations when Merab overextends, then reset to range immediately. Over five rounds, the goal is to accumulate 2-3 rounds of clear striking superiority by controlling distance and making Merab work for every entry without giving up prolonged control time in grappling exchanges.
Use frames to break clinch, sprawl-and-brawl to keep phases short and clean. When Merab secures ties, immediately fight grips and create separation rather than accepting prolonged exchanges. Keep scrambles short and explosive, denying Merab the extended control sequences that define his game. In championship rounds where fatigue increases, these defensive wrestling moments become more critical as maintaining separation gets harder but remains essential to victory.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage & Pace Dynamics (30ft Large Cage, 5 Rounds)
In the 30-foot cage, range initially favors Yan's clean counters and lateral movement, but Merab's relentless entry frequency and re-shot chains compress space and transform exchanges into prolonged clinch/wrestle phases that accumulate control time.
Over 25 minutes, Merab's ability to repeatedly force grappling exchanges—even when the first attempt is defended—creates a cumulative pressure effect. While Yan can win individual striking moments in open space, the championship distance allows Merab to bank multiple rounds through volume takedowns and ride time, making it progressively harder for Yan to maintain the separation needed for his clean counter-striking to be the dominant narrative of the fight.
🎯Technical Breakdown & Five-Round Implications
Yan leads in striking accuracy (54% vs 42%) and defense (58% vs 56%) on the feet, creating a clear striking edge in pure boxing exchanges. However, Merab's massive takedown volume advantage (6.40 vs 1.58 per 15 minutes) and his ability to maintain 82% takedown defense while forcing constant grappling reshapes where the fight takes place, limiting Yan's best weapon.
The championship format amplifies Merab's advantages: his elite cardio (96/100) means he can sustain high-output wrestling deep into rounds 4-5 when Yan's takedown defense typically begins to fade. Merab's recent performance against Sandhagen—20 takedowns over 25 minutes with no visible fatigue—demonstrates his capacity to execute this gameplan across an entire title fight. Yan must win rounds decisively through striking to overcome the cumulative control time Merab will likely accumulate.
🧩Key Battle Areas Across Championship Distance
Entry Coverage vs Intercept Counters: Merab must mix his entry timing and use striking setups to avoid loading up Yan's knees and uppercuts. Yan's best finish path comes from catching Merab on naked shots, but over five rounds, maintaining the defensive discipline and timing precision to capitalize on every opportunity becomes increasingly difficult.
Fence Control & Ride Time vs Quick Breaks: Once Merab secures clinch position or gets the takedown, Yan's ability to escape quickly determines whether rounds stay competitive. Extended grappling sequences favor Merab not just for control time, but because they drain Yan's defensive wrestling reserves for later rounds.
Late-Round Tempo: Rounds 4-5 become critical. Merab historically maintains or increases his pace in championship rounds, while Yan's takedown defense success rate is likely to decline. The longer exchanges stay attached in these frames, the more decisively they trend toward Merab, potentially allowing him to close the fight with dominant final rounds even if earlier frames were competitive.
🏁Final Championship Prediction (5 Rounds, Bantamweight Title)
Minutes favor Merab; moments favor Yan. Over five championship rounds, Merab's sustained pressure, chain wrestling, and ride time create a cumulative advantage that tilts the contest in his favor unless Yan can land clean, decisive counters early or bank multiple clear striking rounds.
Yan's path to victory requires winning at least 3 of the first 4 rounds through striking superiority while successfully defending the majority of takedown attempts. The longer the fight goes, the more Merab's advantages compound—his cardio edge becomes more pronounced, Yan's defensive success rates decline, and accumulated control time makes judging math increasingly difficult for Yan even in rounds where he lands the cleaner strikes.
Projection: Merab edges a decision via accumulated control time and late-round dominance, or finds a submission opportunity in rounds 4-5 when fatigue opens defensive gaps. Yan's counter-finish window exists primarily in rounds 1-2 before the cumulative effect of defending constant wrestling pressure takes its toll. In a five-round championship fight, the fighter who can sustain their pace without degradation typically prevails—and that profile strongly favors Merab Dvalishvili.
🏅 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment and betting opportunities
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 57.4% | Market: Varies
GOOD VALUE
Model: 13.2% | Market: Varies
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~77% | Market: Varies
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Minute winning vs moments – Books may overweight Yan's KO equity over Merab's control minutes.
- • Re-shot pressure – Layered entries aren't fully priced relative to TDDef rates.
- • Judging optics – Control and ride time can edge close rounds in a 3-round fight.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Dvalishvili
Primary path via control minutes
Occasional attritional stoppage
Opportunistic chokes from rides
💥Outcome Distribution - Yan
Primary finishing lane via counters
Rounds won at range when entries stuffed
Minimal historical submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Yan
- • First 5 minutes: Highest counter equity pre-adjustments
- • Intercept shots: Knees/uppercuts down the middle
- • Circle off fence: Avoid extended clinch layers
🎯Progressive Dominance - Dvalishvili
- • Minute winning: Entries → rides → resets
- • Pace control: Fence clinch when stung to cool tempo
- • Defense first: Enter behind cover to reduce intercepts
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Strong edge via control minutes; KO volatility remains from counters.
✅Supporting Factors
- • Higher TD volume and control profile
- • Excellent damage mitigation (low SApM)
- • Cardio to sustain pace and re-shots
- • Proven against elite strikers
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Yan's intercept counters on entries
- • Early round volatility
- • Judging leaning toward visible damage
- • Large cage favors range moments
🏁Executive Summary
Merab Dvalishvili owns a robust minute-winning profile anchored by chain wrestling (6.40 TD/15min vs 1.58), elite cardio (96/100), and proven ability to maintain pressure across full championship distance. His recent 20-takedown performance against Sandhagen validated his capacity to execute this gameplan over 25 minutes against elite opposition. Petr Yan counters with superior striking precision (54% accuracy vs 42%) and legitimate finishing power through technical counter-striking, creating early volatility windows particularly in rounds 1-2.
Over five championship rounds in the large cage, control time and cumulative wrestling pressure are projected to outweigh sporadic clean counters. Merab's ability to sustain his pace without degradation through rounds 4-5—when Yan's takedown defense historically weakens—creates a compounding advantage. While Yan possesses the technical striking to win individual rounds decisively, banking 3+ rounds while defending constant wrestling volume over 25 minutes presents a monumental defensive wrestling challenge.
The championship format amplifies Merab's stylistic edges: extended fight duration favors his cardio advantage, accumulated takedown attempts drain defensive reserves, and late-round control becomes increasingly dominant. Yan's path requires early success—landing clean counters in rounds 1-2 and banking clear striking rounds before cumulative fatigue enables Merab's wrestling to take over.
Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision or late Submission (R4-R5). Primary path: Accumulate control time across 5 rounds, with dominance increasing in championship frames. Live hedge opportunity: Petr Yan by KO/TKO (R1-R2) at plus-money—counter-striking danger is real but window narrows significantly after early rounds.