Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez
UFC 318 Welterweight Bout • UFC 318
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Finish Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Finish Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kevin Holland
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Vicente Luque | W | Submission - Brabo Choke (R2, 1:03) |
| 2025-03-22 | Gunnar Nelson | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-01-18 | Reinier de Ridder | L | Submission - Rear-Naked Choke (R1, 3:31) |
| 2024-10-05 | Roman Dolidze | L | TKO - Corner Stoppage (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-01 | Michał Oleksiejczuk | W | Technical Submission - Armbar (R1, 1:34) |
Last 5 Fights - Daniel Rodriguez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 1:12) |
| 2024-10-12 | Alex Morono | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-22 | Kelvin Gastelum | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-13 | Ian Machado Garry | L | TKO - Head-kick & Punches (R1, 2:57) |
| 2022-11-05 | Neil Magny | L | Submission - Brabo Choke (R3, 3:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70.5 vs 78.0) and Grappling Composite (72.0 vs 83.0). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Kevin Holland Key Advantages
Significant size advantage at 6'3" with 81" reach creates natural distance control
0.59 submission attempts per 15min vs Rodriguez's 0.09 - elite BJJ game
Elite finishing ability with 23 finishes in 28 wins - dangerous throughout
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Rodriguez's massive striking volume (7.39 SLpM) could overwhelm Holland in extended exchanges
D-Rod's superior striking defense (58% vs 50%) and takedown defense could neutralize advantages
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize height and reach advantages to control distance, pick shots from outside
Look for takedown opportunities off clinch work, threaten submissions from scrambles
🚀 Daniel Rodriguez Key Advantages
Massive 7.39 SLpM vs Holland's 4.24 - elite pressure striking output
Superior 58% striking defense and 63% takedown defense - well-rounded defensive game
Pure boxing background with crisp combinations and technical precision
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Holland's significant reach advantage could keep Rodriguez at distance throughout
Holland's submission threat and longer limbs create danger in scrambles and clinch
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance early, work combinations in pocket to negate reach disadvantage
Use superior takedown defense to keep fight standing, avoid grappling exchanges
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Stylistic Matchup
This welterweight clash represents a fascinating style clash between Holland's lanky submission specialist approach and Rodriguez's high-volume boxing pressure. Holland brings significant physical advantages with his 6'3" frame and 81" reach against Rodriguez's 6'1" and 74" reach, creating a 7-inch reach disparity that could prove decisive in controlling distance. Holland's 82% finish rate demonstrates his ability to end fights early, while his 6.5x higher submission rate (0.59 vs 0.09 per 15min) presents a constant threat that Rodriguez must navigate carefully.
📈Statistical Breakdown
Rodriguez's massive striking volume advantage (7.39 vs 4.24 SLpM) creates compelling counterpoint to Holland's physical advantages. Rodriguez's 74% higher striking output combined with superior defensive metrics (58% vs 50% striking defense, 63% vs 55% takedown defense) suggests he can implement a high-pressure game while minimizing Holland's key weapons. However, Holland's technical scores (106.9 overall rating vs 120.7) and proven finishing ability across multiple positions present clear paths to victory that don't rely on decision-making.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome likely hinges on distance management and grappling exchanges. Holland's 7-inch reach advantage allows him to control the outside game, but Rodriguez's pressure boxing and 63% takedown defense could neutralize Holland's grappling entries. The striking volume battle becomes crucial - Rodriguez needs to close distance and work combinations, while Holland must utilize his length to pick shots and threaten takedowns when Rodriguez pressures forward. Late-round scenarios favor Holland's submission threat as fatigue sets in.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Holland's path to victory involves effectively utilizing his physical advantages to control distance, landing clean shots from range while threatening takedowns when Rodriguez pressures. His submission game becomes increasingly dangerous as rounds progress, with scrambles and transitions offering opportunities for fight-ending positions. Rodriguez must execute a disciplined pressure game, working behind his jab to close distance, implementing volume striking while avoiding extended grappling exchanges where Holland's length and submission skills create maximum danger.
🎯Final Prediction
This fight projects as a competitive affair with multiple potential outcomes. Holland's physical advantages and submission threat provide slight edge, but Rodriguez's striking volume and defensive improvements create legitimate paths to victory. The 55-45 split reflects the genuine uncertainty in this stylistic matchup, with Holland's finishing ability and reach advantage slightly outweighing Rodriguez's pressure game and technical boxing skills. Expect a dynamic fight with early action determining whether this becomes a long-range striking battle or transitions into grappling exchanges where Holland holds significant advantages.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 24.4%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 22% | Market: ~16.7%
AVOID
Model: 58% | Market: 78.9%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Massively overvalues Holland's favorite status - Market pricing (-375) suggests 78.9% chance vs model's 58%
- • Undervalues Rodriguez's defensive improvements - 63% TDD and 58% striking defense not properly priced
- • Physical advantage bias - Market overweights reach advantage while ignoring volume striking disparity
- • Submission threat overvaluation - Rodriguez's superior TDD makes Holland's submission game less effective
- • Recent form undervalued - Rodriguez's 2-fight win streak and improved boxing fundamentals overlooked
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Holland
Front-choke or RNC after scramble
Straight right counters as D-Rod pressures
Controls range, lands cleaner shots
🚀Outcome Distribution - Rodriguez
Overwhelms with volume, lands short hook
Wins minutes with jab-kick pace
Low likelihood guillotine
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Rodriguez
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum volume striking before fatigue sets in
- • Early aggression: Must establish pressure before Holland finds his range
- • Distance control: Close range quickly to negate reach disadvantage
- • Boxing combinations: Work in pocket where technical boxing gives edge
🎯Progressive Advantage - Holland
- • Range control: Physical advantages become more pronounced as fight progresses
- • Submission opportunities: Constant threat increases in scrambles and transitions
- • Late round fatigue: Rodriguez's volume decreases, Holland's reach becomes dominant
- • Grappling entries: Higher success rate as Rodriguez tires from striking output
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence due to clear physical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Holland's significant physical advantages
- • Superior submission threat rate
- • Proven finishing ability (82% rate)
- • Reach advantage in welterweight division
- • Historical success against pressure fighters
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Rodriguez's massive striking volume advantage
- • Superior defensive metrics across board
- • Elite boxing fundamentals and pressure
- • Higher takedown defense than Holland's accuracy
- • Welterweight division's finishing volatility
🏁Executive Summary
Moderately confident Holland edges this 3-rounder: his reach, younger mileage, and submission threat align well with Rodriguez's forward-march tendencies. The main uncertainty is tempo—if Holland stays passive or accepts pocket brawls, D-Rod's pace could squeak close rounds or find a momentum-swinging hook.
Cardio metrics and age curve favour Rodriguez slightly in minute-to-minute output, but Holland's finishing upside (front-choke series) tilts the overall probability toward the favourite. The 7-inch reach advantage and submission threat create clear tactical advantages against Rodriguez's pressure-heavy approach.
Final Assessment: Holland's ability to control range with his reach advantage while threatening submissions in scrambles gives him the edge. Rodriguez must close distance consistently and win exchanges in the pocket to overcome the physical disadvantages. The 58-42% split reflects Holland's favorable matchup dynamics while acknowledging Rodriguez's volume striking capabilities.