Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
Middleweight Division • UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025 • Smoothie King Center, New Orleans
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Paulo Costa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-01 | Sean Strickland | L | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Robert Whittaker | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-08-20 | Luke Rockhold | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-10-23 | Marvin Vettori | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2020-09-26 | Israel Adesanya | L | KO/TKO (R2, 3:59) |
Last 5 Fights - Roman Kopylov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Chris Curtis | W | KO/TKO (R3, 4:59) |
| 2024-06-01 | Cesar Almeida | W | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-17 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Submission (R2, 3:23) |
| 2023-09-16 | Josh Fremd | W | KO/TKO (R2, 4:44) |
| 2023-07-29 | Claudio Ribeiro | W | KO/TKO (R2, 0:33) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 78) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 76). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🔥 Paulo Costa Key Advantages
Elite 6.22 SLpM vs 4.96 - overwhelming striking output that breaks down opponents
58% striking accuracy vs 51% - lands clean shots while maintaining volume
Never knocked out in UFC, can walk through power shots to impose pressure
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Kopylov's 3" reach advantage could keep Costa at distance and counter his pressure
Kopylov's 83% finish rate means any clean counter-shot could end the fight
📋 Likely Gameplan
March forward relentlessly, pin against cage, work body shots to break down defense
Use superior cardio to maintain pace, accumulate damage over rounds 2-3
⚡ Roman Kopylov Key Advantages
Elite finishing ability vs 85.7% - finds knockouts when opportunities arise
Superior takedown defense to keep fight standing in striking range
Significant reach and leg reach advantages for range control and distance management
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Costa's relentless pressure and volume could overwhelm defensive positioning
Getting backed to the cage could negate reach advantage and expose to body shots
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach to counter Costa's entries, look for explosive finishing combinations
Maintain center cage, circle away from pressure, use footwork to reset position
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Middleweight Dynamics
This middleweight clash represents a classic bulldozer versus surgeon matchup. Costa embodies the quintessential pressure fighter—marching forward behind constant body kicks and heavy hands, aiming to break opponents through sheer volume and power. His game plan is devastatingly simple: pressure, pressure, pressure until something breaks. However, Kopylov operates as a surgical striker who picks his spots carefully, possessing superior boxing fundamentals and the rare ability to end fights with single, perfectly-timed shots.
⚔️Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals concerning trends for Costa and promising signs for Kopylov. Costa's recent performances expose critical vulnerabilities: against Strickland, he absorbed 182 significant strikes while struggling with basic front kicks that neutralized his offense. His 49% striking defense means he gets hit clean far too often for someone relying on walking forward. Conversely, Kopylov's 86% finish rate demonstrates legitimate knockout power, while his superior boxing technique and fight IQ create multiple paths to victory throughout exchanges.
🎯Key Battle Phases
The fight hinges on range management—the decisive element that determines everything. Costa needs to live in pocket range where his devastating body shots are most effective, replicating his performance against Romero where he landed 43 body shots in 15 minutes. However, Kopylov needs to maintain boxing range where his superior hand speed, accuracy, and counter-punching ability shine. Recent evidence suggests Kopylov has the technical tools to control this distance battle, evidenced by his ability to hurt aggressive fighters like Curtis and Almeida while they pressed forward.
🛡️Victory Scenarios
Costa's path to victory runs through his signature body attack and iron chin that historically allows him to walk through fire. If he can replicate early success by pinning Kopylov against the fence and systematically breaking down his defensive structure with malicious body shots, the Brazilian still possesses the tools for victory. His pressure style worked against elite competition like Romero and could overwhelm Kopylov if implemented early and consistently.
However, Kopylov's superior boxing fundamentals and counter-punching ability create the more likely victory scenario. His 88% knockdown rate demonstrates he finds the off button when opportunities arise, and Costa's declining defensive metrics (49% striking defense) create ample targets. The Russian's ability to time counters as pressure fighters come forward, combined with his recent upward trajectory and technical improvements, positions him to exploit Costa's predictable approach and defensive vulnerabilities.
🏁Final Prediction
The technical disparity and recent performance trends decisively favor Kopylov in this matchup. Costa's concerning trajectory—declining offensive output, increased hittability, and struggles against basic techniques like front kicks—plays directly into Kopylov's strengths. Against Whittaker, Costa was outlanded 95-67 in significant strikes; against a technically superior boxer like Kopylov, these defensive holes become canyons that can be exploited repeatedly.
The 65-35 split reflects both the stylistic mismatch and the fighters' current trajectories. Kopylov's superior boxing technique, counter-punching ability, and recent improvements align perfectly against Costa's predictable pressure approach. While Costa's power and body attack remain legitimate threats that prevent this from being a blowout prediction, expect Kopylov to time devastating counters as the Brazilian's pace slows and his guard drops. This represents a classic case of evolving technical skill overcoming declining but still dangerous pressure fighting.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive odds analysis for this middleweight bout
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 34.2%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 20% | Market: 13.3%
OVERVALUED
Model: 45% | Market: 52.4%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Costa's knockout power: +650 for TKO appears generous given 85.7% finish rate
- • Overconfident in Kopylov decision: -110 for decision doesn't account for Costa's pressure style
- • Distance props slightly misaligned: Market expects more decisions than model projects
- • Round betting offers value: Costa's early round threat underpriced at current odds