Daniel Zellhuber vs Michael Johnson
UFC 318 Lightweight Bout
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Daniel Zellhuber
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | Esteban Ribovics | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Francisco Prado | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-16 | Christos Giagos | W | Submission (R2, 3:26) |
| 2023-04-15 | Lando Vannata | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-17 | Trey Ogden | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Michael Johnson
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | Ottman Azaitar | W | KO/TKO (R2, 2:03) |
| 2024-02-10 | Darrius Flowers | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-05-20 | Diego Ferreira | L | KO/TKO (R2, 1:50) |
| 2022-12-03 | Marc Diakiese | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-09 | Jamie Mullarkey | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score Methodology
Zellhuber: 67.5/100 | Johnson: 67.5/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70 vs 75) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 60). Equal technical ability despite different fighting styles - Zellhuber's grappling edge vs Johnson's boxing craft.
💪Cardio Score Methodology
Zellhuber: 75/100 | Johnson: 70/100
Based on average fight duration (Zellhuber: 13:54 vs Johnson: 11:30), striking rate per minute (6.26 vs 4.23), takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Zellhuber's youth and higher volume output demonstrate superior cardiovascular endurance.
🎯Overall Rating Breakdown
Zellhuber: 71.3/100 | Johnson: 68.8/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Zellhuber's slight advantage comes from superior conditioning and youth factor rather than pure technical superiority. The narrow gap reflects how Johnson's experience can neutralize athletic advantages.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Johnson's superior composite (75 vs 70) reflects his refined boxing technique and power despite lower volume output.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Zellhuber's advantage (65 vs 60) comes primarily from elite takedown defense (94%) and submission threat.
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis & Prediction
🎯Youth vs Experience Dynamic
This fight represents the classic youth vs experience narrative. Zellhuber (25) brings peak athleticism, size advantages, and modern MMA skills, while Johnson (38) counters with 30 UFC fights worth of octagon wisdom and refined boxing fundamentals. The 13-year age gap is significant, but Johnson's recent KO victory shows he still possesses finishing power.
📏Physical Advantages
Zellhuber's size advantage is substantial - 3" in height and 3.5" in reach creates a significant striking range differential. His 48% higher striking output (6.26 vs 4.23 SLpM) combined with elite 94% takedown defense suggests he can control distance and dictate where the fight takes place. The reach disparity could be decisive in a striking-heavy matchup.
🥊Experience Factor
Johnson's 6x UFC experience advantage (30 vs 5 fights) cannot be understated. His boxing fundamentals and proven ability to perform under pressure give him pathways to victory despite physical disadvantages. His recent 2-fight winning streak, including a KO over Azaitar, proves he's still dangerous at 38.
🔮Final Prediction
Zellhuber 58% - Johnson 42%
Zellhuber's youth, size, and striking volume give him the edge, but Johnson's experience keeps this competitive. Expect Zellhuber to use his reach to control distance while Johnson looks for boxing combinations and takedown opportunities. The Mexican's elite TDD should keep it standing where his advantages are maximized.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⚡Physical Dominance vs Ring IQ
This lightweight clash embodies the eternal MMA narrative of athletic prime versus veteran savvy. Zellhuber's physical advantages are undeniable - 3" in height, 3.5" in reach, and a staggering 13-year age advantage create a blueprint for controlling distance and dictating engagement range. His 48% higher striking output (6.26 vs 4.23 SLpM) suggests an aggressive, volume-based approach that could overwhelm opponents unprepared for sustained pressure. However, Johnson's 30 UFC fights represent a library of octagon wisdom that can't be quantified in spreadsheets.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating tactical puzzle. Zellhuber's elite 94% takedown defense creates a fortress that should keep this fight standing where his physical advantages become paramount. His superior technical score (67.5 vs 67.5 - dead even) and cardio advantage (75 vs 70) suggest sustained performance throughout three rounds. Conversely, Johnson's superior striking composite (75 vs 70) reflects refined boxing fundamentals honed over decades of professional combat. His recent KO victory over Azaitar proves the finishing power remains at 38.
⚔️Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the opening round where Johnson's experience could help him weather Zellhuber's early aggression; the mid-fight exchanges where Zellhuber's reach and volume could accumulate damage; and the championship round where both fighters' conditioning and heart will be tested. Johnson's tendency to find his rhythm in Round 3 (9 of his 15 wins) contrasts with Zellhuber's more patient approach (only 1 R1 finish in UFC). The grappling exchanges, though limited given both fighters' striking preferences, could favor Zellhuber's youth when scrambling back to the feet.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Zellhuber's path to victory involves leveraging his reach advantage early and often, maintaining high striking volume to accumulate points, and using his superior athleticism to avoid prolonged exchanges where Johnson's boxing craft could prove decisive. His elite takedown defense should neutralize Johnson's wrestling attempts, keeping the fight in the pocket where size matters most.
Johnson's blueprint for victory requires patience and precision. His superior boxing fundamentals and fight IQ must help him time Zellhuber's aggressive entries with counter shots. His experience advantage becomes crucial in championship moments - knowing when to press forward, when to clinch, and how to steal rounds with intelligent octagon control. If Johnson can make this a technical boxing match rather than a volume contest, his refined skills could overcome physical disadvantages.
🏁Final Prediction
The 58-42 split in Zellhuber's favor reflects both the significance of physical advantages in modern MMA and the unpredictable nature of veteran craft. While Johnson's experience and boxing fundamentals provide legitimate pathways to victory, Zellhuber's youth, size, elite takedown defense, and superior cardio create a more probable path to success. Expect a competitive three-round affair where Zellhuber's volume and reach control the majority of exchanges, but Johnson's timing and power create moments of danger throughout. The Mexican's ability to maintain distance while avoiding Johnson's power shots will likely determine the outcome in what should be an entertaining standup battle showcasing both the future and the legacy of lightweight MMA.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 19.0%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 25% | Market: ~15.4%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 50% | Market: 45.5%
AVOID COMPLETELY
Model: 58% | Market: 85.7%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Extreme overvaluation of favorites - Market priced Zellhuber at 85.7% (was 83.3%) despite model showing 58%
- • Undervalues veteran experience - Johnson's 30 UFC fights and recent knockout form not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward rising stars - Market overreacts to Zellhuber's impressive performances
- • Decision outcome underpriced - Goes the Distance (+120) offers 4.5% edge based on fighters' styles
- • Technical analysis suggests closer fight - Equal technical scores indicate competitive matchup
- • Maximum value on underdog - Johnson +425 represents 23% edge over true probability