Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov
Welterweight Bout • UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Young Prospect Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Francisco Prado
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-08 | Jake Matthews | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-24 | Daniel Zellhuber | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-07-15 | Ottman Azaitar | W | TKO (Punches) (R1, 4:05) |
| 2023-02-12 | Jamie Mullarkey | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-11-05 | Rodrigo Vargas | W | Submission (Rear Naked Choke) (R1, 2:48) |
Last 5 Fights - Nikolay Veretennikov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Austin Vanderford | L | TKO (Ground and Pound) (R2, 4:13) |
| 2024-08-10 | Danny Barlow | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-15 | Juan Carlos Morales | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-09-23 | Alex White | W | TKO (Punches) (R2, 3:45) |
| 2023-04-08 | Mike Breeden | W | KO (Left Hook) (R1, 1:22) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Striking Composite
Calculated as the average of: Striking Composite (SS vs OA), TD of Grappling Composite (SS vs OA) = accurate overall striking effectiveness with all grading factors like takedown defense, technical skills, TKD control, accuracy, and defense. The total will also include speed when possible.
Grappling Composite
Evaluates takedown ability, defensive wrestling, Takedown accuracy (TDAcc) and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling impact including: takedown control, defense, takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Score Methodology
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (66) and TD of Grappling Composite (39) = an accurate overall technical effectiveness. This scoring, striking accuracy and technical superiority as main performance indicators for longer fights. The composite is built with specific technical expertise overall as primary emphasis.
Cardio Score Methodology
Based on average fight duration (8m 12m) vs finneuse (3m4), fight finish rate, Maximum cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain push throughout fights. His 5 percent activity to maintain peak physical top performance throughout longer fights, especially weight class division and strength deterministic regional conditioning.
Overall Rating Breakdown
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score (16 + 4 point advantage reflects the superior technical skills, championship experience, and better conditioning for longer fights. The raw composite is predictive across more mature fighters a power advantage tactical close-distance.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis & Predictions
⚡Prado's Advantages
- • Youth & Energy: 14 years younger with superior cardio (65 vs 55)
- • Volume Striking: 68% higher significant strike output (4.58 vs 2.73 SLpM)
- • Finish Rate: 100% finish rate shows finishing instinct
- • Submission Threat: 0.44 sub attempts per 15min vs 0.00
- • Early Danger: Most wins come in Round 1 (75% R1 finishes)
- • Pressure Fighter: High pace could overwhelm veteran
🎯Prado's Game Plan
Push a relentless pace from the opening bell, utilizing superior cardio and volume to overwhelm Veretennikov. Look for early finish opportunities with submissions or accumulated damage. If the fight extends, leverage youth and conditioning advantage in later rounds.
🥊Veretennikov's Advantages
- • Physical Dominance: 3" height, 5" reach advantage
- • Technical Superiority: Better accuracy (56% vs 41%) and composites
- • Experience Edge: 14 years more experience in combat sports
- • KO Power: 83.3% finish rate, primarily via KO/TKO
- • Better Defense: Superior takedown defense (57% vs 25%)
- • Size & Strength: Physical advantages in clinch and ground
🛡️Veretennikov's Game Plan
Utilize reach and height advantages to control distance and timing. Land heavy shots while avoiding Prado's volume. Use superior takedown defense to keep the fight standing where technical striking advantage can manifest. Look for counter-opportunities as Prado presses forward.
⚖️Physical Mismatch
Veretennikov's significant size advantages (3" height, 5" reach) create fundamental challenges for Prado's pressure-heavy game. The young Brazilian must find ways to close distance effectively.
⏰Pace & Cardio
Prado's 10-point cardio advantage could prove decisive in a 3-round fight. His ability to maintain high output while Veretennikov potentially fades gives him a path to victory.
💥Finishing Ability
Both fighters possess finishing ability but through different methods. Prado's 100% finish rate vs Veretennikov's technical power creates multiple paths to victory for both.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
Francisco Prado Win Probability
Strong chance with knockout power and early finish ability
Nikolay Veretennikov Win Probability
Favorite based on striking dominance and physical advantages
🔑Key Determining Factors
📏Distance Management
The fight's outcome heavily depends on whether Veretennikov can maintain his 5" reach advantage or if Prado can successfully close distance consistently.
⏱️Pace Control
Prado's path to victory requires establishing and maintaining a high pace throughout 3 rounds to leverage his superior cardio and volume striking.
🧘Mental Composure
Veretennikov's experience advantage becomes crucial in weathering early pressure and maintaining technical discipline under Prado's volume assault.
📊Round-by-Round Prediction
Establishes reach control early, landing clean counters against Prado's aggressive entries. Technical superiority shows immediately.
Prado increases pressure but Veretennikov adapts well. Close round with veteran's experience and timing edge proving decisive.
Cardio advantage finally shows as Prado's pace wears on Veretennikov. Too little, too late for the young Brazilian.
Competitive fight with Veretennikov's technical advantages and physical superiority edging out Prado's youth and volume in the first two rounds.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Market odds analysis and value opportunities for Prado vs Veretennikov
📊Market vs Model Odds
🎯Value Opportunities
Exceptional value! Market has Veretennikov as underdog (+131) while model strongly favors him (68% probability). Physical and technical advantages severely undervalued.
Model predicts technical decision win for Veretennikov. His reach advantage and superior accuracy suggest controlling distance for 3 rounds.
Model sees 55% chance of going to decision. Market pricing at 54.5% creates slight value opportunity.
Market severely overvaluing Prado. Despite youth advantage, model sees only 32% win probability due to significant physical disadvantages.
Additional Market Props
🔍Key Market Discrepancies
📈Youth Overvaluation
Market heavily overweighting Prado's age advantage while undervaluing Veretennikov's significant physical and technical superiority.
⚖️Physical Advantages Underpriced
Veretennikov's 3" height and 5" reach advantages, plus superior technical skills, create massive value at underdog odds.
🎯Technical Discrepancy
Market not properly pricing Veretennikov's superior striking accuracy (56% vs 41%) and better defensive metrics.
💡Recommended Betting Strategy
EXCEPTIONAL VALUE OPPORTUNITY: The market has severely mispriced this fight, making Veretennikov a massive underdog despite our model giving him a 68% win probability. His physical advantages (3" height, 5" reach) and superior technical skills (56% vs 41% striking accuracy) create exceptional value at +131 odds.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
⚡Outcome Distribution - Prado
50% of his wins | Volume accumulation
Never gone to decision in career
50% of his wins | Submission threat
🥊Outcome Distribution - Veretennikov
75% of his wins | Superior power
16.7% of his wins | Technical control
Minimal submission threat
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Prado's Window - Round 3
- • Cardio advantage manifests: 10-point edge shows late
- • Volume accumulation: Higher output takes toll
- • Youth factor: Energy reserves favor young fighter
- • Submission opportunity: Tired opponent vulnerable
🎯Veretennikov's Control - Rounds 1-2
- • Early dominance: Technical superiority establishes control
- • Reach advantage: Keep distance, avoid exchanges
- • Counter opportunities: Punish Prado's aggression
- • Experience edge: Ring IQ and composure early
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Good confidence based on Veretennikov's physical and technical advantages
✅Supporting Factors
- • Significant physical advantages (3", 5" reach)
- • Superior technical composites (71 vs 62)
- • Better striking accuracy (56% vs 41%)
- • Experience and ring IQ edge (+14 years)
- • Strong over 2.5 rounds probability (62.5%)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Market favors Prado (-151 favorite)
- • Prado's 100% finish rate threat
- • Youth and cardio advantage late
- • High volume striking (4.58 vs 2.73 SLpM)
- • Submission threat (0.44 per 15min)
🏁Executive Summary
This welterweight preliminary bout presents an intriguing clash between youth and experience. Veretennikov's significant physical advantages (3" height, 5" reach) and technical superiority (56% vs 41% striking accuracy) create substantial challenges for the young Brazilian. However, Prado's youth, cardio advantage, and impressive 100% finish rate make him a dangerous underdog, particularly in the later rounds.
The betting market has installed Prado as a -151 favorite (60.2% implied), which our model identifies as a significant mispricing given Veretennikov's 68% win probability. The market appears overly focused on Prado's youth and finishing ability while undervaluing Veretennikov's substantial physical and technical advantages. With a 62.5% chance of going over 2.5 rounds (-167 market price) and a 54.5% probability of reaching a decision (-120), the fight projects to favor Veretennikov's methodical, technical approach.
Prediction: Veretennikov utilizes his superior reach and technical advantages to control distance and timing, systematically breaking down the aggressive Prado over three rounds. While the young prospect will have dangerous moments, particularly in round 3 where his cardio advantage could manifest, Veretennikov's size, skill, and ring IQ should prove decisive in securing a competitive but clear decision victory (+225). The +131 underdog price on Veretennikov represents exceptional betting value given the physical and technical mismatches at play.