Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Striker Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Grappler Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Carli Judice
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Yuneisy Duben | W | KO (head kick) (R1, 1:40) |
| 2024-06-15 | Gabriella Fernandes | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Nicolle Caliari
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Ernesta Kareckaite | L | Decision - Split (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-10 | Corinne Laframboise | W | Submission (armbar) (R1, 4:45) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊Technical Score Methodology
Judice: 56/100 | Caliari: 58.5/100
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (72 vs 35) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 82). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. Caliari's superior grappling (82 vs 40) and submission skills significantly boost her technical rating despite Judice's striking advantage.
💪Cardio Score Methodology
Judice: 70/100 | Caliari: 60/100
Based on average fight duration (Judice: 10:33 vs Caliari: 4:45), striking rate per minute (11.18 vs 1.89), takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights. Judice's higher volume output and longer average fight duration demonstrate superior conditioning for extended battles.
🎯Overall Rating Breakdown
Judice: 63/100 | Caliari: 59.3/100
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Judice's 3.7-point advantage reflects her superior striking output and cardio, while Caliari's submission threat and wrestling skills keep the overall gap modest. The close ratings suggest a competitive bout where specific scenarios and gameplans will be decisive.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Carli Judice Key Advantages
Massive striking volume advantage with 11.18 vs 1.89 strikes per minute - overwhelming output differential
Perfect finishing ability with all 4 wins coming by KO/TKO - no decisions needed
Height and reach advantages - can control distance and dictate striking range effectively
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Caliari's superior grappling and submission threats could neutralize striking advantages
70% takedown defense may not be enough against Caliari's 67% takedown accuracy
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use reach and height advantages to maintain distance and pick shots from the outside
Capitalize on massive striking volume advantage to overwhelm and accumulate damage
🤼 Nicolle Caliari Key Advantages
Superior grappling composite (82 vs 40) with elite wrestling and submission skills
Constant submission danger with 4 submission victories and high attempt rate
Elite Brazilian wrestling pedigree with superior takedown accuracy (67% vs 25%)
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Judice's reach and height advantages could keep Caliari at disadvantageous range
Judice's superior striking volume could overwhelm and accumulate damage over time
📋 Likely Gameplan
Close distance quickly and look for takedowns to negate reach disadvantage
Establish ground control and hunt for submission opportunities using wrestling base
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🥊Striking vs Grappling Classic
This flyweight bout represents the classic MMA matchup of striker versus grappler. Judice brings elite striking output (492% higher volume) and perfect finishing ability, while Caliari counters with superior grappling skills and constant submission threats. The key battleground will be distance management - can Judice maintain range to utilize her striking advantage, or will Caliari close the distance and impose her ground game?
⚖️Key Statistical Factors
- • Striking volume: Judice dominates with 11.18 vs 1.89 significant strikes per minute
- • Grappling composite: Caliari leads 82 vs 40 - massive advantage on the ground
- • Takedown accuracy: Caliari 67% vs Judice 25% - major advantage in takedowns
- • Submission threat: Caliari 6.32 attempts per 15min vs Judice 0
- • Physical advantages: Judice +2" height, +3" reach to control distance
🎯Fighting Style Analysis
Judice is a kickboxer with superior reach who seeks to maintain distance and accumulate damage through volume. Her 100% finish rate by KO/TKO demonstrates devastating knockout power. Caliari is a Brazilian wrestling specialist who seeks to close distance, secure takedowns, and dominate on the ground with her elite grappling and constant submission threat.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 55% | Market: 28.6%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 14.3% | Market: 9.1%
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 34.5% | Market: 68.3%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overvalues Judice's striking volume - Market doesn't fully consider Caliari's grappling dominance
- • Undervalues Caliari's wrestling advantage - Superior takedown accuracy and ground game not properly priced
- • Recency bias toward striking - Market overreacts to Judice's knockout finishes
- • Ignores submission threat statistics - Caliari's 6.32 sub attempts per 15min vs Judice's 0 creates massive value
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🥊Outcome Distribution - Judice
100% of her wins | Superior power + volume
Superior cardio if avoiding takedowns
No historical submission threat
🤼Outcome Distribution - Caliari
37.5% of her wins | Ground specialty
0% of her wins | No decisions
62.5% of her wins | Improved power
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🥊Window of Opportunity - Judice
- • First minutes: Maximum knockout danger before takedowns
- • Distance management: Use reach to keep Caliari at bay
- • Early pressure: Establish dominance before Caliari adapts
- • Takedown defense: Crucial to keep the fight standing
🤼Progressive Dominance - Caliari
- • Round 2+: Wrestling and ground control take over
- • Adaptation: Find ways to close the distance
- • Accumulation: Constant pressure wears down takedown defense
- • Late finish: Submission opportunity in rounds 2-3
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Moderate-high confidence based on Caliari's grappling superiority
✅Supporting Factors
- • Clear grappling superiority by Caliari
- • Multiple submission victory paths
- • Proven Brazilian wrestling background
- • Evident weaknesses in Judice's TDD
- • Complementary style to neutralize striking
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Judice's massive knockout power
- • Significant physical disadvantages
- • Overwhelming striking volume
- • Limited UFC experience
- • One shot can change everything
🏁Executive Summary
This flyweight bout presents a fascinating clash of styles between Judice's technical striking superiority against Caliari's elite grappling skills and constant submission threat. Statistical data shows Judice with decisive advantages in striking volume (492% higher) and physical attributes (2" height, 3" reach).
However, Caliari's grappling dominance (105% advantage) and her Brazilian wrestling specialization create multiple victory paths. Our model indicates a 55% probability for Caliari, favored by her ability to neutralize striking advantages by taking the fight to the ground.
Prediction: Caliari proves that grappling beats striking, using her superior wrestling to secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. While Judice presents early danger with her knockout power, Caliari's grappling experience and multiple submission threats prevail for a submission victory in the second or third round.