Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 Bantamweight Bout
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Rising Star Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Kyler Phillips
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | Rob Font | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-09 | Pedro Munhoz | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-08-05 | Raoni Barcelos | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-02-12 | Marcelo Rojo | W | Submission (R3, 1:48) |
| 2021-07-24 | Raulian Paiva | L | Decision - Majority (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Vinicius Oliveira
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-29 | Ricky Simon | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-02 | Benardo Sopaj | W | KO/TKO (R3, 4:41) |
| 2023-09-26 | Victor Madrigal | W | KO/TKO (R1, 3:02) |
| 2023-03-18 | Hikaru Yoshino | W | TKO (R1, 4:02) |
| 2022-11-12 | Luis Henrique | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (70 vs 67) and Grappling Composite (65 vs 68). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Phillips (78) vs Oliveira (81) - both showing excellent endurance with slight edge to Oliveira.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Phillips (72.75) vs Oliveira (74.25) - extremely close matchup with marginal edge to the Brazilian.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
⭐ Phillips Key Advantages
🎯 Strike Volume
5.28 vs 4.92Higher striking output at 5.28 SLpM gives Phillips a volume advantage. His pressure fighting style could overwhelm Oliveira in longer exchanges, especially in championship rounds.
🤼 Wrestling Threat
2.63 vs 1.89 TD/15minSuperior takedown rate combined with equal TDD (76%) creates grappling versatility. Can mix takedown attempts to disrupt Oliveira's striking rhythm and control fight geography.
🏆 UFC Experience
8 vs 3 fights8 UFC fights vs 3 provides crucial Octagon experience. Has faced higher level competition including Font, Munhoz, and Barcelos - better preparation for elite-level pressure.
🔥 Oliveira Key Advantages
🛡️ Strike Defense
61% vs 53%Superior defensive striking could neutralize Phillips' volume advantage. Better at avoiding damage while maintaining offensive output - key factor in close rounds.
📈 Momentum
5-fight win streakHighly successful in UFC (3-0) with 5-fight win streak overall. Coming off impressive win over veteran Ricky Simon, showing he can handle experienced opponents under pressure.
🤼 Grappling Edge
68 vs 65 compositeHigher grappling composite score with better takedown accuracy (60% vs 51%). If fight hits the ground, could capitalize with superior positional control.
⚠️ Phillips - Unfavorable Scenarios
🎯 Accuracy Disadvantage
Equal striking accuracy (44%) but facing superior defense (61% vs 53%) could lead to inefficient volume fighting - burning energy without landing clean shots.
📉 Recent Form
Coming off loss to Font and facing rising prospect on win streak. Mental pressure of needing a statement win could lead to overaggression and defensive lapses.
🤼 Ground Game
If takedowns don't work as planned, could find himself defending against Oliveira's higher grappling composite and superior ground positioning.
⚠️ Oliveira - Unfavorable Scenarios
⚡ High-Pace Pressure
Phillips' volume striking (5.28 SLpM) could force uncomfortable pace. Lower output (4.92 SLpM) might not match intensity needed in close rounds.
🎯 Big Stage Pressure
First major UFC platform against veteran opponent. Less experience handling elite-level pressure compared to Phillips' 8-fight UFC tenure.
🤼 Wrestling Defense
Equal takedown defense (76%) but facing higher takedown rate (2.63 vs 1.89). Could spend energy defending constant wrestling threats.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Phillips Strategy
Phillips will look to establish early pressure with high-volume striking, mixing jabs and body shots to break down Oliveira's defense. He'll use takedown threats to disrupt rhythm and create openings for combinations. Key is avoiding exchanges and controlling pace through constant forward pressure and activity.
Oliveira Strategy
Oliveira needs to use superior defense to weather Phillips' early storm, then capitalize on counters and scrambles. He'll look for opportunities to showcase grappling advantage if fights hit the ground. Must avoid getting drawn into volume wars and pick his spots for decisive moments.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven analysis based on statistical modeling and fight dynamics
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🚀Rising Star vs Veteran Dynamics
This bantamweight clash represents the classic narrative of a rising UFC prospect facing an experienced veteran looking to reestablish himself in the division. Oliveira brings incredible momentum from his perfect 3-0 UFC record and current 5-fight win streak, including impressive victories over quality opponents like Ricky Simon and Bernardo Sopaj. His recent success demonstrates significant evolution from their 2022 meeting, particularly in defensive awareness and fight IQ.
🎯Technical Maturation
The statistical analysis reveals Oliveira's improvements in critical areas since their first encounter. His superior striking defense (61% vs 53%) and better takedown accuracy (60% vs 51%) suggest tactical evolution. While Phillips maintains advantages in strike volume (5.28 vs 4.92 SLpM) and wrestling pressure (2.63 vs 1.89 TD/15min), Oliveira's defensive improvements and equal takedown defense (76%) create a more competitive dynamic than their previous meeting.
⚡Momentum vs Experience
Phillips' 8-fight UFC tenure provides valuable experience advantages, but his recent loss to Rob Font and the pressure of facing an undefeated prospect create psychological challenges. Oliveira's confidence from five consecutive wins, combined with his 81.8% finish rate, suggests he's hitting his physical and mental prime. The Brazilian's superior cardio score (81 vs 78) and higher finish rate indicate he's evolved into a more complete fighter.
🔮Victory Scenarios
Oliveira's path to victory involves utilizing his improved defensive striking to neutralize Phillips' volume advantage, then capitalizing on his superior grappling composite (68 vs 65) when opportunities arise. His 81.8% finish rate suggests he can find ways to end fights when in dominant positions.
Phillips must leverage his experience and wrestling pressure early, using his higher strike volume to create scrambles and control positions. His submission skills (shown in the Rojo fight) provide a secondary path to victory if he can implement his grappling game effectively.
🏁Final Prediction
While Phillips' experience and proven wrestling ability create legitimate paths to victory, Oliveira's recent evolution, superior defensive metrics, and momentum shift the odds in his favor. The 58-42 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the improvements Oliveira has shown since their first meeting. Expect a competitive, technical battle where Oliveira's defensive improvements and finishing instincts prove decisive in a fight that showcases the changing of the guard in the bantamweight division.
⚔️Stylistic Match-up Analysis
🗺️ Fight Geography
Likely remains standing with both preferring to strike. Oliveira's improved TDD makes Phillips' wrestling more challenging than in their first meeting.
💥 Damage Assessment
Oliveira's superior defense (61% vs 53%) could neutralize Phillips' volume advantage. Both have finishing ability but Oliveira's 81.8% rate suggests more urgency.
💪 Momentum Factor
Oliveira's 5-fight win streak vs Phillips' recent loss creates psychological advantage. Rising star confidence vs veteran pressure.
🎯 Technical Evolution
Oliveira's defensive improvements since 2022 create new dynamics. Superior grappling composite (68 vs 65) suggests ground advantage if fight goes there.
💰Betting Model Analysis
🎯 Model Recommendations
Model suggests fair value around -138 based on defensive improvements and momentum factors.
Both fighters' cardio scores and defensive improvements suggest fight goes distance.
Strong conviction based on Oliveira's evolution and momentum advantages.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 42% | Market: 42.4%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: ~37.7%
FAIR VALUE
Model: 64.3% | Market: 64.9%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Undervalues Phillips' experience edge - Market doesn't fully account for 8-fight UFC tenure
- • Overvalues Oliveira's recent wins - Quality of opposition may be inflating perception
- • Momentum bias - Market overreacts to Oliveira's win streak vs Phillips' recent loss
- • Ignores historical matchup - Phillips' previous victory creates value in his line
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Oliveira
72.7% of his wins | Explosive power + timing
18.2% of his wins | Defensive counters
9.1% of his wins | Grappling advantage
💥Outcome Distribution - Phillips
41.7% of his wins | Volume advantage + control
41.7% of his wins | Pressure accumulation
16.7% of his wins | Wrestling transitions
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🚀Oliveira's Path to Victory
- • Early dominance: Explosive power and confidence from win streak
- • Defensive evolution: 61% vs 53% striking defense advantage
- • Momentum factor: 5-fight win streak creates psychological edge
- • Finishing ability: 81.8% finish rate suggests urgency and killer instinct
⚡Phillips' Window of Opportunity
- • Volume accumulation: 5.28 SLpM vs 4.92 SLpM advantage
- • Wrestling pressure: 2.63 vs 1.89 TD/15min threat
- • Experience factor: 8 UFC fights vs 3 shows in pressure moments
- • Late rounds: Must survive early storm and use veteran IQ
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
High confidence based on Oliveira's evolution and momentum
✅Supporting Factors
- • Oliveira's 5-fight win streak
- • Superior striking defense (61% vs 53%)
- • Higher finish rate (81.8% vs 58.3%)
- • Momentum from perfect UFC record
- • Better cardio score (81 vs 78)
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Phillips' experience edge (8 vs 3 fights)
- • Superior wrestling threat
- • Volume striking advantage
- • Previous victory over Oliveira
- • Veteran composure under pressure
🏁Executive Summary
This bantamweight clash represents a compelling evolution story where Oliveira's significant improvements since their 2022 meeting have shifted the competitive balance. His perfect 3-0 UFC record and 5-fight win streak demonstrate genuine evolution, particularly in defensive striking (61% vs 53%) and finishing ability (81.8% vs 58.3% finish rate).
While Phillips maintains advantages in striking volume (5.28 vs 4.92 SLpM) and wrestling threat (2.63 vs 1.89 TD/15min), Oliveira's momentum, improved defensive metrics, and psychological edge from his win streak create a scenario where the rising star has overtaken the veteran as the favorite.
Prediction: Oliveira capitalizes on his defensive improvements and explosive finishing ability to frustrate Phillips' pressure game, using his superior cardio and momentum to secure a statement victory that establishes him as a legitimate bantamweight contender and demonstrates the changing of the guard in the division.