Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski
Light Heavyweight Division • UFC 318
Monday, July 19, 202
Superman Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Warrior Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📊Recent Fight History - Last 5 Fights
Ryan Spann - Recent Performances
Recent Trends
- • Currently 1-4 in last 5 with only 1 win vs Ovince St. Preux
- • Vulnerable to TKO losses - 2 TKO defeats in last 5 fights
- • Still dangerous with submissions when opportunity arises
- • Struggling against strong wrestlers/strikers in recent outings
Lukasz Brzeski - Recent Performances
Recent Trends
- • Currently 1-4 in last 5 fights - only win vs Valter Walker
- • Extremely vulnerable to early finishes (4 of 6 losses via TKO/KO)
- • Poor chin - getting finished in first round frequently
- • Facing potential UFC release with continued losses
🔬Technical Analysis Comparison
🥊Striking Metrics
🤼Grappling Metrics
📈Composite Performance Scores
Striking Composite Score
Grappling Composite Score
⚖️Technical vs Cardio Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Ryan Spann Strengths
- • Grappling: Submission threats and ground control
- • Takedowns: 1.17 vs 0.43 per 15min advantage
- • Finishing: 86.4% finish rate vs 77.8%
- • Physical: Height, reach, and weight advantages
Lukasz Brzeski Strengths
- • Striking: 5.02 vs 3.20 SLpM volume advantage
- • Defense: 55% vs 43% striking defense
- • Cardio: 64.8 vs 34.8 endurance edge
- • Accuracy: 48% vs 43% striking precision
🥊Fight Breakdown Analysis
💪Ryan Spann Key Advantages
🤼 Grappling Dominance
Massive 16.2 point grappling advantage (39.4 vs 23.2). Superior takedown attempts (1.17 vs 0.43 per 15min) and submission threat (1.51 vs 0.43 attempts per 15min).
💀 Finishing Power
86.4% finish rate vs Brzeski's 77.8%. Strong submission game with 13 career submission wins, including 3 rear naked chokes in recent fights.
📏 Physical Advantages
2" height advantage (6'5" vs 6'3"), 1" reach advantage (79" vs 78"), and 15 lbs weight advantage creating significant physical leverage.
🎯 Takedown Defense
72% takedown defense vs Brzeski's 60%, offering better defensive grappling and scramble ability.
⚡Lukasz Brzeski Key Advantages
🥊 Striking Volume
Superior striking output with 5.02 vs 3.20 SLpM (+57% more volume). Better striking accuracy (48% vs 43%) and superior striking defense (55% vs 43%).
🫁 Cardio Advantage
Massive cardio edge (64.8 vs 34.8 score) and longer average fight duration (13:12 vs 9:24), suggesting better late-round performance.
📊 Striking Composite
15.5 point striking advantage (56.8 vs 41.3), indicating superior overall striking ability and technique in the standup game.
🛡️ Defensive Striking
Better striking defense (55% vs 43%) and lower damage absorption rate, potentially frustrating Spann's striking attempts.
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios for Spann
🥊 Striking at Range
Brzeski's superior reach and striking defense could force Spann to take risks closing distance, potentially walking into counters.
❌ Early Round Pressure
Brzeski's explosive power and high finish rate could catch Spann during early attempts to close distance.
⚠️Unfavorable Scenarios for Brzeski
🤼 Extended Grappling
Prolonged ground exchanges could favor Spann's submission vulnerabilities against Spann's superior wrestling.
🔄 Clinch Engagement
Getting caught in the clinch could lead to submission rather than engage, limiting striking opportunities.
🎯Likely Gameplan - Spann
🤼 Pressure & Chain Wrestling
Use striking to set up takedowns, chain wrestling attempts, and establish ground control with submission threat.
🎯 Ground Control
Once on the ground, prioritize control and submission attempts over ground strikes, including takedown ability to maximize ground time.
🎯Likely Gameplan - Brzeski
🛡️ Distance Management
Utilize reach advantage to keep Spann at distance, punish dirty attempts with counter strikes.
📊 Defensive Wrestling
Focus on maintaining vertical base, use sprawls and protective wrestling to create separation rather than engage.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Spann
Submission or TKO dominance | Primary path to victory
Grappling control over 3 rounds | Backup plan
💥Outcome Distribution - Brzeski
Volume striking and cardio | Main path
Catching Spann early | Low probability
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏆Championship Dynamics
This light heavyweight clash features a quintessential grappler vs striker dynamic that has defined many of the sport's greatest title fights. Spann, as the grappling specialist, brings the psychological advantage of having already proven himself the bigger stage, evidenced by his championship experience and ability to finish fights across multiple rounds. His championship experience includes victories over former champions and top contenders, demonstrating his ability to elevate his game when it matters most.
🔬Technical Breakdown
The statistical analysis reveals a fascinating contrast in fighting philosophies. Spann's 28.2% grappling advantage is primarily driven by his elite submission rate (0.89 attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.00) and superior takedown volume (2.74 vs 0.61 per 15 minutes). However, Brzeski's striking metrics tell a compelling counter-narrative: his 30% superior striking defense (65% vs 50%) and exceptional 88% takedown defense create a defensive fortress that could neutralize Spann's primary weapons.
⚡Key Battle Areas
The fight will likely be determined in three critical phases: the initial exchanges where Brzeski's reach advantage (69" vs 67") and superior striking output could establish early momentum; the transitions where Spann's takedown pressure meets Brzeski's elite 88% defense; and the championship rounds where Spann's superior cardio score (82 vs 79) and proven championship endurance could become decisive factors. Brzeski's 5 first-round finishes suggest early aggression, while Spann's submission threat remains constant throughout all rounds.
🎯Victory Scenarios
Spann's path to victory involves successfully implementing his pressure wrestling game, weathering Brzeski's early striking flurries, and dragging the fight to later rounds through either takedown control or submission attempts. His 86.4% finish suggests he rarely needs scorecards when executing his game plan effectively. Conversely, Brzeski must leverage his physical advantages early and often. His superior reach, striking defense, and takedown defense create a perfect storm for keeping the fight standing, where his 77.8% finish rate and rhythm fighting game can become incredibly dangerous. The key for Brzeski is avoiding extended ground exchanges where Spann's submission skills become paramount.
🏁Final Prediction
While Brzeski possesses legitimate tools to win this fight and his striking advantages are legitimate, Spann's championship pedigree, grappling dominance, and proven ability to find ways to win in hostile environments give him the slight edge. The 60-40 split reflects both the quality of opposition and the championship variables at play. Expect a competitive, technical battle that showcases the very best of both the striking and grappling arts, with the winner likely emerging in the championship rounds through either Spann's submission skills or Brzeski's defensive counter-striking game.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Ryan Spann
-210Lukasz Brzeski
+180Market Props
🎯Analytical Model
Ryan Spann
-250Lukasz Brzeski
+250Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
AVOID
Model: 28.6% | Market: 35.7%
AVOID
Model: 58.3% | Market: 63.0%
EXCELLENT VALUE
Model: 71.4% | Market: 67.7%
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 44.4% | Market: 16.7%
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Massive decision undervaluation: Market gives 16.7% chance for decision vs model's 44.4% - enormous value at +500
- • Overvalues Brzeski's chances: Market gives 35.7% chance vs model's 28.6%, overestimating upset potential
- • Undervalues Spann's grappling edge: Market doesn't fully price in 16.2 point grappling advantage
- • Early finish bias: Market overvalues early finishes despite both fighters' cardio and durability
⚖️ Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
✅Supporting Factors
- • Spann's 16.2 point grappling advantage
- • 86.4% finish rate vs 77.8% for Brzeski
- • Strong submission threat (1.51 vs 0.43)
- • Physical advantages (height, reach, weight)
- • Historical grappler vs striker outcomes
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Brzeski's superior striking volume (5.02 vs 3.20)
- • Brzeski's cardio advantage (64.8 vs 34.8)
- • Spann coming off TKO loss
- • Brzeski's improved striking defense (55%)
- • Potential for early striking exchanges
📊Executive Summary
This light heavyweight bout presents a classic grappler vs striker matchup with clear advantages for Ryan Spann. His significant grappling edge (39.4 vs 23.2 composite score) and proven finishing ability (86.4% finish rate) create multiple paths to victory against Brzeski's striking-heavy approach.
Key Prediction Factors: Spann's ability to implement his grappling game early will determine the outcome. If he can avoid early striking exchanges and establish takedown control, his submission threat becomes paramount. Brzeski's best chance lies in maintaining distance, utilizing his striking volume advantage, and avoiding extended ground exchanges.
Final Assessment: While Brzeski brings superior striking metrics and cardio, Spann's grappling dominance and finishing ability provide the clearer path to victory. The updated odds at -210/+180 create excellent value on Spann's moneyline (+3.7% edge) and massive value on "Goes the Distance" (+500 with +27.7% model edge), suggesting the market undervalues both fighters' durability and the potential for a competitive three-round battle.