Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov
Welterweight Bout • UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Adam Fugitt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-15 | Josh Quinlan | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-10 | Mike Malott | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R2, 1:06) |
| 2023-02-04 | Yusaku Kinoshita | W | KO/TKO - Elbows (R1, 4:36) |
| 2022-07-30 | Michael Morales | L | KO/TKO - Punches (R3, 1:09) |
| 2022-01-15 | Rafa Garcia | W | KO/TKO - Ground and Pound (R2, 2:15) |
Last 5 Fights - Islam Dulatov
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-08 | Vanilto Antunes | W | KO/TKO - Elbow (R1, 2:44) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (40 vs 57) and Grappling Composite (40 vs 57). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive tactical and stylistic analysis
🔥 Dulatov Key Advantages
💥 Overwhelming Pace
3x Strike Output14.27 SLpM vs 4.72 SLpM - Dulatov's output volume will force guard-high reactions and overwhelm Fugitt's reactive defense. This pace differential has historically broken opponents.
🎯 Superior Accuracy
57% vs 46%11% higher striking accuracy combined with his volume creates a dangerous combination. Cleaner, straighter boxing technique allowing more shots to land cleanly.
⚡ Youth & Recovery
Age 26 vs 348-year age advantage in prime athletic years. Better recovery between rounds and ability to maintain his frenetic pace longer than the aging Fugitt.
🤼 Wrestling Threat
100% TD AccuracyPerfect takedown accuracy (small sample) with seamless level changes. His wrestling threat opens up his striking and prevents Fugitt from committing fully to offensive sequences.
⭐ Fugitt Key Advantages
📏 Physical Advantages
+5" Reach77" reach vs 72" and 2" height advantage. Better range management potential and ability to keep Dulatov at distance where his volume becomes less effective.
💪 Superior Cardio
74 vs 55 ScoreHigher cardio composite score and longer average fight duration (9:13 vs 2:44). If he survives the early storm, he could capitalize on Dulatov fading.
🎯 UFC Experience
4 vs 1 Fights4x more UFC experience with 50+ cage minutes vs Dulatov's 164 seconds. Better understanding of pace management in the big cage.
🛡️ Takedown Threat
Pressure WrestlingHis pressure wrestling style and southpaw left kick entries could disrupt Dulatov's rhythm. Ground control could neutralize the striking disadvantage.
⚠️ Dulatov - Unfavorable Scenarios
🔋 Cardio Questions
Unknown durability past 5 minutes. His 2:44 average fight time suggests early finishes but raises questions about maintaining pace if Fugitt weathers the storm.
📊 Limited Sample Size
Only 164 seconds of UFC footage. Small sample for takedown stats and uncertainty about adapting to big cage dynamics and veteran ring craft.
📏 Range Management
Fugitt's 5" reach advantage could keep him at distance where volume becomes less effective. Needs to close distance consistently to implement his game plan.
⚠️ Fugitt - Unfavorable Scenarios
💔 Durability Concerns
Two recent stoppage losses (Morales KO, Malott SUB). His chin has been compromised and Dulatov's power could find it early.
🎯 Low Takedown Success
29% takedown accuracy vs Dulatov's 77% regional TDD. His pressure wrestling gameplan could become energy-draining without early success.
⚡ Reactive Defense
52% striking defense is reactive rather than anticipatory. Against Dulatov's volume and accuracy, he could be overwhelmed early.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Dulatov Strategy
Pressure immediately with high-volume striking to exploit Fugitt's reactive defense. Use switch-stance boxing to create angles and prevent Fugitt from finding range. Mix in blast doubles to keep him guessing and prevent him from establishing his southpaw kick-to-takedown entries. Target early finish before cardio questions arise.
Fugitt Strategy
Utilize reach advantage and cage cutting to control distance. Weather the early storm and look for opportunities to drag Dulatov into deep waters where his cardio questions become factors. Hunt for long left kick entries into double-legs, and establish ground control where his heavy ground-and-pound can be effective.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation model based on comprehensive statistical analysis
📊 Stylistic & Technical Snapshot
Adam Fugitt
Pressure wrestler with southpaw boxing
📈 Offense Profile
4.72 SLpM @ 46% accuracy • Long southpaw kicks to double-legs • Heavy ground-and-pound
🛡️ Defense Profile
4.48 SApM, 50% TDD • Reactive defense style • Solid submission defense
🎯 Finish Profile
80% finish rate • 50% KO/TKO • 30% Submission • 20% Decision wins
📊 Current Momentum
Coming off decision win over Quinlan • Bouncing back from submission loss
Islam Dulatov
High-octane switch-stance boxer-wrestler
📈 Offense Profile
14.27 SLpM @ 57% accuracy • Switch-stance boxing • Blast doubles to mat returns
🛡️ Defense Profile
5.49 SApM, 77% TDD • Unknown takedown defense in UFC • Small sample concern
🎯 Finish Profile
100% finish rate • 55% KO/TKO • 45% Submission • 0% Decision
📊 Current Momentum
11-1 record with 164 seconds of UFC footage • Current win streak
⚔️ Match-up Analysis
🌍 Geography Control
Dulatov's overwhelming pace (3x strike output) and seamless level changes will dictate fight geography. His ability to switch stances and pressure creates multiple entry angles, making it difficult for Fugitt to establish his preferred range and southpaw kick setups. The fight likely happens in the phone booth where Dulatov's volume becomes most dangerous.
💥 Damage Assessment
Primary concern for Fugitt is early damage accumulation. His chin has been compromised (2 recent stoppages) against Dulatov's 55% KO/TKO rate predominantly in rounds 1-2. However, if Fugitt survives the early storm, his cardio advantage (74 vs 55 score) could become factor as Dulatov's unknown durability past 5 minutes becomes questioned.
⏱️ Cardio & Round Winning
Stark contrast in fight duration expectations. Dulatov's 2:44 average suggests explosive early finishes but raises questions about maintaining pace. Fugitt's 9:13 average and superior cardio composite could create late-round opportunities if he can weather the initial onslaught and drag the fight into championship territory.
🎯 Technical Edges
Dulatov holds significant technical advantages: +29.4% grappling composite, +42.5% striking composite, and 3x striking output. However, Fugitt's 5" reach advantage and UFC experience (4x more cage time) provide tactical counters. Key battle will be Fugitt's 29% takedown accuracy vs Dulatov's small-sample 77% TDD.
🎲 Probabilistic Simulation Results
Fugitt Win Methods
Dulatov Win Methods
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Identifying value opportunities through statistical modeling
📊 Model-Derived Lines
🏪 Market Comparison
🎯 Value Opportunities
| Market | Model % | Model Line | Market Line | Value Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fugitt Win | 35% | +155 | +425 | Strong Value |
| Dulatov Win | 65% | -185 | -600 | Avoid |
| Fight goes to Decision - Yes | 42% | +138 | +450 | Strong Value |
| Dulatov by KO/TKO | 45% | +122 | -170 | Avoid |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | 67% | -203 | -195 | Small Value |
🎯 Conviction Rating
High Confidence
High conviction on market inefficiency: The market heavily over-favors Dulatov based on his strong 11-1 record and recent UFC debut. However, our model accounts for small sample size and unknown cardio durability. Fugitt's +425 odds provide substantial value considering his reach advantage, superior UFC experience, and cardio edge. The 19.0% implied probability severely undervalues Fugitt's 35% actual win probability.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
Deep-dive statistical modeling with scenario-based outcomes
🚀 Early Finish Scenarios
Round 1 Finish
Round 2 Finish
⏰ Championship Rounds
Round 3 Performance
Decision Probability
📊 Critical Factors
Dulatov Cardio Test
Fugitt Chin Test
📈 Round-by-Round Win Probability
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Fight Timeline Analysis
Minute-by-minute probability shifts and critical moments
⏱️ Critical Timeline Moments
0-2 Minutes: Opening Blitz
Dulatov 78% win probability. Critical period where his overwhelming pace and power create maximum danger for Fugitt's compromised chin. Historical pattern shows Dulatov's most dangerous window.
2-5 Minutes: Pressure Maintenance
Dulatov 69% win probability. If Fugitt survives initial burst, Dulatov maintains pressure but slight probability drop. Fugitt's defensive experience begins to factor in. Key period for establishing takedowns.
5-8 Minutes: Inflection Point
Dulatov 58% win probability. Critical juncture where Dulatov's pace questions meet Fugitt's cardio strength. First signs of possible momentum shift. Reach advantage becomes more relevant as pace settles.
8-12 Minutes: Championship Territory
Dulatov 52% win probability. Near-even probability as fight enters Fugitt's preferred duration. Cardio differential begins showing. Dulatov's unknown endurance vs Fugitt's proven championship conditioning.
12-15 Minutes: Fugitt's Window
Fugitt 58% win probability. If fight reaches this stage, Fugitt's superior cardio and championship experience create advantage. Dulatov's pace questions become reality. Fugitt's pressure wrestling more effective against tired opponent.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Comprehensive evaluation and final prediction with confidence intervals
📊 Model Confidence
Model Accuracy Confidence
Based on sample size, data quality, and stylistic clarity
🎯 High Confidence Factors
- • Clear stylistic advantages (volume vs cardio)
- • Strong historical patterns (early finishes)
- • Significant statistical differences
- • Consistent performance trends
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
- • Dulatov's limited UFC sample (164 seconds)
- • Unknown cardio durability past 5 minutes
- • Fugitt's chin recovery status
- • Big cage adaptation variables
🏆 Final Prediction
🎯 Primary Scenario
Dulatov overwhelms early with his 3x striking output and superior accuracy. Fugitt's compromised chin and reactive defense struggle against the volume. Fight ends via accumulation of damage in rounds 1-2, most likely through a combination of strikes rather than single-shot knockout.
🥊 Alternative Path
35% probability Fugitt survives early onslaught and drags fight deep. His cardio advantage and reach control become factors in championship rounds. Most likely via decision as Dulatov's pace questions become reality.
📋 Executive Summary
🔍 Key Insights
- • Market severely undervalues Fugitt (+425 vs model +155)
- • Style clash heavily favors early aggression over late endurance
- • Critical 5-8 minute window determines fight direction
- • Small sample size creates betting value opportunities
- • Physical advantages (reach/age) partially offset technical gaps
💰 Betting Recommendations
- • Strong Value: Fugitt +425 (true odds +155)
- • Strong Value: Fight goes to decision +450
- • Avoid: Dulatov -600 (overpriced favorite)
- • Small Value: Under 1.5 rounds -195
⚡ Fight Dynamics
This matchup presents a classic styles clash: explosive early aggression vs proven championship endurance. Dulatov's overwhelming pace creates immediate danger, but unknown cardio durability provides Fugitt's clearest path to victory. The fight likely ends in the extremes—early knockout or late decision.
🎯 Final Verdict
Dulatov by KO/TKO (Rounds 1-2) - 65% confidence. Superior technical metrics, explosive power, and Fugitt's compromised chin create a clear early finishing path. However, significant betting value exists on Fugitt given market overreaction to strong record vs limited sample size.