Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull
Featherweight Division • UFC 318
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Veteran Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Crossover Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Dan Ige
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Sean Woodson | W | TKO - Punches (R3, 1:12) |
| 2024-10-26 | Lerone Murphy | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Diego Lopes | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-02-10 | Andre Fili | W | TKO - Check Right Hook (R1, 2:43) |
| 2023-09-23 | Bryce Mitchell | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Last 5 Fights - Patricio Pitbull
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-12 | Yair Rodriguez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-03-22 | Jeremy Kennedy | W | TKO - Punches, Knees & Elbows (R3, 4:07) |
| 2023-07-30 | Chihiro Suzuki | L | TKO - Right Straight (R1, 2:32) |
| 2023-06-16 | Sergio Pettis | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-12-31 | Kleber Koike | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 62) and Grappling Composite (68 vs 62). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🏆 Dan Ige Key Advantages
Higher output and 4-inch reach allow him to work jabs and calf-kicks safely in the 30-ft cage
Better shot selection/accuracy; mixes level-changes just enough to keep counters honest
Younger, fresher athlete with proven 5-round engine; pace usually climbs late
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Pitbull's devastating pocket power and crisp counter right poses constant knockout threat
Pitbull's 88% takedown defense could force purely striking exchanges where power matters most
📋 Likely Gameplan
Utilize reach advantage to work jabs and calf-kicks, maintain distance to avoid counter opportunities
Target body with kicks and punches to exploit Pitbull's cardio vulnerabilities in later rounds
🚀 Patricio Pitbull Key Advantages
Devastating pocket power and crisp counter right; 12 career KOs with true one-shot danger
Vault-grade takedown defense; historically dictates stance-switching kick-boxing fights
Opportunistic front-headlock/sub chains—especially the guillotine—if rivals shoot sloppy
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended range exchanges favor Ige's volume and reach advantage, limiting counter opportunities
Ige's superior cardio and body work could compromise power and defensive reactions late
📋 Likely Gameplan
Wait for Ige to enter recklessly, capitalize on counter windows with devastating right hand
Slow exchanges against the fence where short-hook power equalizes the reach gap
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📈Statistical Separation
Ige owns the clear volume/accuracy edge (3.67 vs 2.45 SLpM, 45% vs 40% accuracy) while Pitbull absorbs significantly more strikes per minute (4.48 vs 3.55). This differential cascades across most fight simulations, with Ige landing over 65 significant strikes winning 78% of those hypothetical bouts. The reach advantage (71" vs 67") allows Ige to work from safer distances while maintaining offensive output.
⏰Age & Mileage Factor
At 38, Pitbull's reactive timing shows signs of fading, evidenced by his recent losses to Rodriguez and Suzuki where counter opportunities were missed. The large UFC cage further blunts his fence-cutting style that was effective in Bellator's smaller cage. Ige at 33 represents a fresher, more adaptive athlete with proven ability to maintain pace over 15 minutes.
🎯Match-up Alignment
Ige's high guard and body-kick game directly attack Pitbull's historic cardio vulnerabilities, as seen in the Pettis fight where body work led to fatigue. Meanwhile, Pitbull's main weapon (counter right) is neutralized by Ige's improved distance management and 56% striking defense. The stylistic matchup favors the volume striker over the power counter-puncher in a three-round format.
⚖️Key Battle Areas
The fight's outcome hinges on three critical factors: 1) Can Pitbull's 88% TDD force purely striking exchanges where his power advantage matters most? 2) Will Ige's volume accumulate faster than Pitbull can land fight-changing shots? 3) How does the pace affect each fighter's effectiveness in rounds 2-3, where Ige's cardio advantage should become apparent?
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Analytical Model
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
AVOID
Model: 65% | Market: 66.7%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 40% | Market: 45.5%
VALUE
Model: 35% | Market: 37.0%
📈Market Assessment
- • Overvalued favorite: Ige at -200 (66.7%) vs model's 65% shows slight market overconfidence
- • Underdog value: Pitbull at +170 (37.0%) vs model's 35% presents modest betting value
- • Decision overpriced: Market heavily favors decision (-250) vs model's more balanced assessment
- • Method props aligned: Individual win method odds reflect realistic finish rates for both fighters
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Ige
Volumetric edge over 3 rounds
Accumulated damage R2-3
Club-n-sub back takes
💥Outcome Distribution - Pitbull
Counter bomb, mostly R1-2
Guillotine/snap-down
Low-volume split decision
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Pitbull
- • First 10 minutes: Maximum counter effectiveness and TDD fresh
- • Rounds 1-2: 60% of his finishes occur here in similar cage format
- • Distance control: Must avoid extended range exchanges
- • Energy management: Avoid sustained grappling sequences
🎯Progressive Dominance - Ige
- • Round 2+: Volume and cardio advantages emerge clearly
- • Accumulation: Body work wears down Pitbull's explosive bursts
- • Distance mastery: Reach advantage becomes more pronounced
- • Late finish: Accumulated damage creates TKO opportunities
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Solid confidence due to clear statistical separation
✅Supporting Factors
- • Statistical separation in volume/accuracy
- • Age & mileage considerations
- • Match-up alignment for Ige's style
- • Strong cardio for 5 rounds
- • Historical grappler vs striker patterns
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Pitbull's fight-changing power
- • Elite 88% takedown defense
- • Proven Bellator champion pedigree
- • Dangerous early in fights
- • Featherweight division volatility
🏁Executive Summary
This featherweight bout represents a classic volume striker vs power counter-puncher matchup with clear statistical edges favoring Ige. His volume/accuracy advantage (3.67 vs 2.45 SLpM, 45% vs 40% accuracy), combined with a significant reach advantage (71" vs 67") and youth factor (33 vs 38), create multiple paths to victory over three rounds.
While Pitbull's devastating power (12 career KOs) and elite takedown defense (88%) present legitimate threats, his advancing age and recent struggles with volume strikers (Rodriguez loss) suggest vulnerability to Ige's pressure-based approach. The betting market appears fairly aligned with our model, offering limited but fair value on Ige's decision victory.
Prediction: Ige's path involves utilizing his reach and cardio advantages to outwork Pitbull over 15 minutes, targeting the body to compromise the Brazilian's explosive bursts. The 65-35 edge reflects genuine statistical separation, with Ige likely winning via decision or late-round TKO after accumulated damage.