Brendan Allen vs Marvin Vettori
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Performance Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Last 5 Fights - Brendan Allen
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-09-28 | Nassourdine Imavov | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-06 | Chris Curtis | W | Decision - Split (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-11-18 | Paul Craig | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 0:38) |
| 2023-06-24 | Bruno Silva | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R1, 4:39) |
Last 5 Fights - Marvin Vettori
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Roman Dolidze | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-06-17 | Jared Cannonier | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2023-03-18 | Roman Dolidze | W | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2022-09-03 | Robert Whittaker | L | Decision - Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2021-10-23 | Paulo Costa | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (68 vs 72) and Grappling Composite (72 vs 65). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Weighted combination of Significant Strikes per Minute (SLpM), Striking Accuracy (StrAcc), Striking Defense (StrDef), and Strikes Absorbed per Minute. Measures overall striking effectiveness including offensive output, precision, and defensive ability.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculated from Takedowns per 15min (TD15), Takedown Accuracy (TDAcc), Takedown Defense (TDDef), and Submission Attempts per 15min (SubPer15). Evaluates complete grappling game including takedown ability, defensive wrestling, and submission threat.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🥊 Brendan Allen Key Advantages
Elite submission threat with 1.28 attempts per 15 minutes vs 0.43 - constant danger on the ground
Superior striking accuracy (54% vs 46%) with better precision and shot selection
At 29, in athletic prime with superior height (6'2" vs 6'0") and reach advantages
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Lower striking defense (46% vs 57%) could be exploited by Vettori's volume striking
Against Vettori's elite cardio and pace, extended battles could favor the Italian
📋 Likely Gameplan
Use superior accuracy and reach to pick shots, avoid volume exchanges
Look for takedowns and submission opportunities, especially in scrambles
🚀 Marvin Vettori Key Advantages
Superior striking output (4.54 vs 3.55 SLpM) with relentless pressure and pace
Elite striking defense (57% vs 46%) and superior takedown defense (70% vs 57%)
Exceptional cardio (85 vs 68) with ability to maintain pace for full 15 minutes
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Extended ground exchanges against Allen's elite submission game could be dangerous
Allen's 1-inch reach advantage could create problems in striking exchanges
📋 Likely Gameplan
Apply constant pressure with high-volume striking to overwhelm Allen's defense
Use superior takedown defense to keep fight standing and avoid submission threats
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
100-Fight Simulation Analysis • Statistical Asymmetry Model
🎯Brendan Allen Win Methods
🔥Marvin Vettori Win Methods
🎲100-Fight Simulation Breakdown
📊Statistical Asymmetry Analysis
Allen's decisive advantages include +8% striking accuracy (54% vs 46%), triple the knockout rate (0.34 vs 0.11 KDs/15min), and vastly superior submission attempts (1.28 vs 0.43 per 15min - a 198% difference). These statistical edges translate to Allen finding multiple paths to victory in 58 out of 100 simulated fights.
🥊Round-by-Round Dynamics
Rounds 1-2: Allen lands cleaner shots while establishing range control. Every third fight sees him secure takedowns and hunt for back control, capitalizing on scrambles to threaten submissions.
Round 3: Vettori's jab-low kick combination accumulates damage through consistent output. His superior takedown defense (70% vs 57%) helps stuff Allen's later takedown attempts while winning visual exchanges at distance through volume and cardio advantage in the final round.
🎯Finishing Scenarios
Allen Finishes (46 of 58 wins): Rear naked chokes in 34 fights when securing back control, plus 12 TKO victories when volume overwhelms Vettori's defense in later rounds.
Vettori Finishes (9 of 42 wins): Never scores knockouts but capitalizes on Allen's fatigue to secure club-and-sub victories in 9 fights when his cardio advantage becomes decisive after round 3.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Comprehensive value assessment with model-generated odds
📊Market Odds
Market Props
🤖Model-Generated Odds
Model Props
💎Value Opportunities
✅ Strong Value Bets
Market offers +175 (36.4% implied) vs model's +138 (42% true probability). Moderate value on the iron-chinned Italian's cardio and defensive wrestling.
Market offers +225 (30.8% implied) vs model's estimated 46% probability of early finish. Significant value given Allen's 79% finish rate and submission threat.
⚠️ Overpriced Markets
Market implies 67.2% probability vs model's 58%. Moderate overvaluation that doesn't account for Vettori's durability and defensive advantages.
Market offers -270 (73.0% implied) vs model's estimated 54% probability. Significant overvaluation considering Allen's high finish rate (79%).
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
R1
Allen utilizes reach advantage, early takedown attempts
R2
Vettori finds rhythm with jabs, Allen hunts submissions
R3
Final round - Both fighters push for victory
🕐 Critical Timeline Factors
Allen's best opportunity to establish his reach advantage and land early takedowns while both fighters are fresh.
Vettori begins to find his rhythm with jabs and pressure, while Allen looks for submission opportunities and maintains pace.
Decisive final round where both fighters push for victory. Vettori's superior conditioning may give him an edge in the closing minutes.
🎯Final Confidence Assessment: 7/10
✅ High Confidence Factors
Statistical Asymmetry: Allen's +8% accuracy advantage, triple the KD rate, and triple the submission attempt rate create decisive edges that favor the American grappler.
Durability Counter-weight: Vettori's iron chin and zero career finishes prevent Allen from running away with the odds, keeping the fight competitive.
Cardio Differential: Vettori's proven conditioning advantage provides a safety net in later rounds, safeguarding his 33% decision win probability.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Allen's Gas Tank: Unknown factor if forced to wrestle repeatedly against Vettori's superior takedown defense and physical pressure.
Vettori's Back Defense: Limited exposure to high-level back-take artists like Allen creates uncertainty about his submission defense capabilities.
Recent Form Impact: Both fighters on 2-fight losing streaks, though Vettori faced elite competition while Allen lost to fringe contenders.
🏁 Bottom Line
Allen's statistical advantages and submission threat provide multiple paths to victory, while Vettori's proven durability and cardio keep the fight competitive. The market's -205 price on Allen appears moderately inflated, offering value on Vettori at +175. Strong value exists on "Under 2.5 rounds" at +225 given Allen's 79% finish rate. Expect a tactical grappling-heavy affair with Allen winning via submission (most likely) or Vettori grinding out a decision victory through superior conditioning.