Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier
Volume King vs Veteran Elite • UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025
Volume King Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Veteran Elite Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Recent Fights - Max Holloway
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-26 | Ilia Topuria | L | KO - Punch to Head (R3, 1:34) |
| 2024-04-13 | Justin Gaethje | W | KO - Punch to Head (R5, 0:16) |
| 2023-08-26 | Chan Sung Jung | W | KO - Punch to Head (R3, 4:32) |
| 2023-04-15 | Arnold Allen | W | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
| 2022-07-02 | Alexander Volkanovski | L | Decision - Unanimous (R5, 5:00) |
Recent Fights - Dustin Poirier
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-01 | Islam Makhachev | L | Submission - D'Arce Choke (R5, 2:42) |
| 2024-03-09 | Benoit Saint Denis | W | KO - Punches to Head (R2, 2:32) |
| 2023-07-29 | Justin Gaethje | L | KO - Head Kick (R2, 4:02) |
| 2022-11-12 | Michael Chandler | W | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 2:28) |
| 2021-12-11 | Charles Oliveira | L | Submission - Rear Naked Choke (R3, 2:32) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (85 vs 73) and Grappling Composite (54 vs 75). Combines overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and fight finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
🥊 Striking Composite
Combinación ponderada de Golpes Significativos por Minuto (SLpM), Precisión de Golpes (StrAcc), Defensa de Golpes (StrDef), y Golpes Absorbidos por Minuto. Mide la efectividad general del striking incluyendo producción ofensiva, precisión y capacidad defensiva.
🤼 Grappling Composite
Calculado a partir de Derribos por 15min (TD15), Precisión de Derribos (TDAcc), Defensa de Derribos (TDDef), e Intentos de Sumisión por 15min (SubPer15). Evalúa el juego completo de grappling incluyendo capacidad de derribo, lucha defensiva y amenaza de sumisión.
Technical Radar Comparison
Metrics Legend
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
Comprehensive technical and tactical analysis
👑 Holloway Key Advantages
🌊 Volume Striking
7.16 SLpMHolloway's elite volume output gives him a significant edge in accumulating damage and controlling the pace. His relentless pressure could overwhelm Poirier's boxing-based approach.
💪 Elite Cardio
88/100 ScoreLegendary cardio allows him to maintain pace deep into rounds. In this 5-round lightweight bout, this endurance advantage becomes crucial against Poirier's more explosive style.
🎯 Distance Control
Technical EdgeSuperior movement and feinting ability allows him to dictate range and avoid Poirier's power shots. His in-and-out style neutralizes pocket boxing exchanges.
💎 Poirier Key Advantages
💥 Power Striking
76.7% Finish RateDevastating power in both hands and elite boxing fundamentals. His ability to hurt opponents with single shots could change the fight instantly against Holloway's volume approach.
🤼 Grappling Edge
75 vs 54 ScoreSuperior grappling composite score and submission threat adds another dimension. His ability to threaten takedowns and submissions forces Holloway to respect ground game.
📏 Reach Advantage
+3" Reach72" reach vs Holloway's 69" gives him a physical advantage in exchanges. Combined with his boxing technique, this could help him win striking exchanges at distance.
⚠️ Holloway - Unfavorable Scenarios
💔 Power Vulnerability
Recent KO loss to Topuria shows vulnerability to power punchers. Poirier's boxing and power could exploit similar openings if Holloway gets drawn into pocket exchanges.
🤼 Grappling Disparity
Significantly lower grappling score (54 vs 75) could be problematic if Poirier decides to mix in wrestling or if the fight goes to the ground unexpectedly.
⚡ Size Disadvantage
Moving up from featherweight, Holloway gives up reach and could face strength disadvantages in clinch situations or if the fight becomes physical.
⚠️ Poirier - Unfavorable Scenarios
💨 Pace & Volume
Holloway's relentless pace could overwhelm Poirier's more measured approach. High-volume striking over 5 rounds favors the cardio machine from Hawaii.
📊 Recent Form
Current 2-fight losing streak and age (36) raise questions about decline. Losses to elite competition suggest he may struggle against another elite striker like Holloway.
🛡️ Defense Issues
Lower striking defense (53% vs 59%) could be problematic against Holloway's volume. Absorbing more strikes per minute plays into opponent's strengths.
🎯 Likely Gameplans
Holloway Strategy
Holloway will look to implement his typical high-volume approach, using movement and feints to stay at distance while accumulating damage. He'll aim to avoid power exchanges in the pocket, instead using his jab and footwork to control range. Expect him to target the body to slow Poirier down and increase his output as rounds progress, leveraging his cardio advantage.
Poirier Strategy
Poirier needs to make this a boxing match, using his reach advantage and power to win exchanges. He'll look to draw Holloway into pocket battles where his boxing fundamentals and power can shine. Mixing in takedown threats and working the clinch could disrupt Holloway's rhythm while adding another dimension to worry about. Early aggression will be key to avoid falling behind on volume.
Detailed Statistical Comparison
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Probabilistic simulation based on 100 hypothetical fights and advanced statistical modeling
📊Stylistic & Technical Snapshot
🌊 Max "Blessed" Holloway
💎 Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier
🔍Comprehensive Match-up Analysis
🗺️ Geography Control
This fight will primarily take place on the feet, favoring both fighters' strengths. Holloway's movement and distance management give him slight edge in controlling where exchanges happen. Poirier's reach advantage and boxing allow him to compete effectively at range.
💥 Damage Assessment
Poirier poses the greater knockout threat with proven one-shot power, while Holloway excels at accumulative damage through volume. Holloway's recent vulnerability to power (Topuria KO) versus Poirier's defensive gaps creates mutual finishing opportunities.
💨 Cardio & Round-Winning
Holloway's legendary cardio gives him significant advantage in later rounds. His ability to maintain pace over 5 rounds while Poirier's explosive style may fade creates shifting dynamics throughout the fight. Expect Holloway to get stronger as rounds progress.
🎯 Technical Edges
Holloway's superior volume output and movement contrast with Poirier's boxing fundamentals and power. Poirier's grappling edge provides tactical options but unlikely to be primary factor. Reach advantage favors Poirier while cardio heavily favors Holloway.
🎲Probabilistic Simulation (100 Hypothetical Fights)
Model considers striking advantages, cardio factors, finishing rates, and stylistic matchups
⚔️ Fight Dynamics
High-volume striker vs power boxer creates contrasting styles. Holloway's cardio and output rate favor longer fights, while Poirier's power creates early finish opportunities.
🎯 Finishing Threats
Poirier's knockout power (70% finish rate) contrasts with Holloway's accumulative damage approach. Both showed finishing ability in recent performances, creating multiple paths to victory.
🧠 Tactical Advantages
Holloway's movement and cardio suit 5-round format, while Poirier's boxing and power favor shorter exchanges. This high-stakes context may favor action-oriented approach.
📊 Simulation Outcome
Holloway wins 58 times: primarily via decision (35) or late TKO (23), leveraging his cardio and volume to overwhelm Poirier over 5 rounds.
Poirier wins 42 times: mostly via early TKO (30) or decision (12), using his power and boxing to hurt Holloway or outbox him in tactical exchanges.
📈Win Method Probabilities
Max Holloway
Dustin Poirier
💰Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
📊 Model Predictions
Moneyline
Method of Victory
Fight Duration
🏪 Market Odds
Moneyline
Method of Victory
Fight Duration
💎Value Opportunities Analysis
⭐⭐ GOOD VALUE
Model: 35.0% probability vs Market: 35.1% implied probability. Market slightly undervalues Holloway's most likely win path. His cardio and volume output in 5-round format create value at +185.
⭐ SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 23.0% probability vs Market: 22.2% implied probability. Small edge on Holloway's finishing ability, especially in later rounds.
⚠️ MARKET EFFICIENT
Moneyline and most method props show minimal discrepancy between model and market. Market appears well-calibrated for this high-profile matchup.
❌ AVOID
Model: 12.0% probability vs Market: 25.0% implied probability. Market significantly overvalues Poirier's decision chances. Strong fade opportunity.
📊 Key Market Insights
Market pricing is generally efficient for this high-profile fight. Limited value opportunities exist primarily in method props.
Focus on Holloway decision prop for value. Avoid Poirier decision bets where market overestimates his chances.
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
R1
Poirier starts strong with power shots, Holloway finding rhythm
R2
Holloway begins to impose pace, volume starting to tell
R3
Cardio gap emerges, Holloway controls distance and pace
R4
Championship rounds favor Holloway, volume overwhelming
R5
Holloway peak performance, Poirier fading from pace
🕐 Critical Timeline Factors
Poirier's best window with fresh power and boxing advantage. Must establish dominance early.
Turning point where Holloway's pace and volume begin to overwhelm Poirier's output.
Holloway's domain with elite cardio advantage creating late finish opportunities.
🎯Final Confidence Assessment: 8.5/10
✅ High Confidence Factors
Cardio Advantage: Holloway's legendary conditioning in a 5-round lightweight bout provides a clear and measurable edge that typically becomes more pronounced as rounds progress.
Volume Output: 7.16 vs 5.30 SLpM differential creates consistent path to victory through accumulative damage and round control, especially in championship rounds.
Stylistic Matchup: Holloway's movement-based striking and distance management have historically performed well against pressure boxers with similar profiles to Poirier.
Recent Form: Coming off spectacular knockout of Gaethje shows Holloway still elite at 32, while Poirier's recent losses raise questions about decline at 36.
⚠️ Uncertainty Factors
Power Vulnerability: Holloway's recent KO loss to Topuria demonstrates vulnerability to precise power, which Poirier possesses in abundance with superior boxing technique.
Weight Class Movement: Holloway moving up from featherweight to lightweight introduces size and strength variables that could favor the naturally bigger Poirier.
Motivated Poirier: This high-profile fight represents potential final shot at gold for Poirier, who historically performs well in high-stakes situations despite recent setbacks.
🏁 Final Verdict
This is a high-level striker vs striker matchup where Holloway's cardio and volume should prevail over 5 rounds against Poirier's power and boxing. While Poirier has early finish potential, Holloway's conditioning and output rate create the more reliable path to victory. This trilogy context favors action, which suits both fighters but ultimately benefits the volume specialist.